As someone who's spent years trading on prediction markets, I can strongly confirm that returns are mostly driven by who can take advantage of idiots the most quickly rather than who is perfectly calibrated and accurate. Programmers who build bots that either notify them or auto-trade have a huge edge over regular people who just check in once a day or once a week. Probably not too dissimilar to the stock market, where high frequency market makers earn tons of money despite having very little to say on what companies are actually worth.
As someone who's spent years trading on prediction markets, I can strongly confirm that returns are mostly driven by who can take advantage of idiots the most quickly rather than who is perfectly calibrated and accurate. Programmers who build bots that either notify them or auto-trade have a huge edge over regular people who just check in once a day or once a week. Probably not too dissimilar to the stock market, where high frequency market makers earn tons of money despite having very little to say on what companies are actually worth.