Introduction
We are all familiar with the idea of compounding in the world of finance, but let’s look at it from the perspective of healthcare.
Take a guess how much the age-adjusted mortality rate for cardiovascular-related deaths has declined since the 1950s. I bet if I told you it has declined on average ~2% per year you would shrug and not pay much attention. That’s hardly a newspaper-grabbing headline.
But what if I told you that the same 2%, compounded over the last ~70 years has resulted in a decline of cardiovascular-related deaths of more than 60%?
This remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction.
I was recently reading Morgan Housel’s book “Same As Ever” and was inspired by the above example and the notion of transformation more generally within healthcare.
Like most transformative processes in life, medical innovations do not occur overnight but rather accumulate gradually through sustained effort and continuous improvement. The remarkable progress in reducing cardiovascular mortality rates exemplifies this principle, highlighting how incremental advancements and persistent dedication to healthcare evolution can lead to profound impacts over time.
It's a testament to the compound effect of numerous small gains—a series of steps forward, each building on the last, that collectively forge a path toward significant breakthroughs. This journey of steady improvement serves as a reminder that in the realm of healthcare, as in many areas of life, patience and perseverance are indispensable allies in achieving lasting change.
As you’ll see below, the FDA marked a historic achievement in 2023 by approving a record 71 new drugs. How many of these drugs will have a lasting impact on our collective healthcare over the coming decades?
The Big Picture
Inflation
The consumer price index rose 3.2% from a year ago and 0.4% in February.
Yet inflation has risen a total of 20% since before the pandemic, Hamrick said. So while those higher wages restore some of what was lost in purchasing power, it is not a full replacement, he said. “There’s still this sense of having lost something, because purchasing power was truly lost in that transition,” Hamrick said.
Monthly 12-month inflation rate in the United States from November 2020 to February 2024
Federal Funds Rate
Consensus is the FOMC will likely opt to keep its fed funds target range at a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% during it’s next meeting (March 19-20th).
10-Year Treasury
The 10-year Treasury yield is currently holding relatively steady at 4.1%, while investors take a wait and see approach to the next Fed meeting.
Yield Curve
The big picture: the yield curve remains inverted, which may be a predictor of a recession.
Public Market Update
Fear & Greed Index
The Fear & Greed Index is used to gauge the mood of the market. When combined with fundamentals and other analytical tools, the Index can be a helpful way to assess market sentiment.
Biotech Market Update
Over the last 3 months the SPY and QQQ are up 9.4% and 8.9%, respectively, with the XBI tracking closely up 8.8% after coming off recent highs.
Total Returns Last 3 Months: SPY vs. QQQ vs. XBI
Record-breaking FDA approvals in 2023
The FDA marked a historic achievement in 2023 by approving a record 71 new drugs. Notable advancements include the approval of the first CRISPR-Cas9-edited cell therapy for treating sickle cell disease, breakthroughs in gene therapies, and the full approval of a drug for Alzheimer's disease.
Among 2023’s new approvals are the first CRISPR–Cas9-edited cell therapy — Vertex Pharmaceuticals and CRISPR Therapeutics’ Casgevy (exagamglogene autotemcel), one of two new treatments for sickle cell disease — four more gene therapies, and the first disease-modifying Alzheimer’s drug to gain full approval, Eisai and Biogen’s amyloid-fighting antibody Leqembi (lecanemab). Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was hit with two new vaccines and one preventative therapy. In all, there were over a dozen new antibody-based drugs, including a quartet of cancer-fighting bispecific T cell engagers.
Bioverge Portfolio News & Updates
Our tagline at Bioverge of “bringing science fiction to life” was inspired by the incredible entrepreneurs and companies we’ve had the privilege of supporting over the years.
Here’s a brief sampling of what a few of them are up to these days:
Notable Advances Volasertib Phase 2 Program Utilizing Proprietary Predictive Precision Medicine Platform (PPMP)-Guided Enrollment. Notable announced the advancement of its volasertib Phase 2 program utilizing PPMP to enrich the study population for clinical responders. Notable is developing its lead drug asset volasertib with its proprietary PPMP for patients with relapsed/refractory acute myelogenous leukemia (r/r AML).
Did you catch Contraline on The All-In Podcast? Click the link and it will take you to the timestamp where Contraline is discussed! https://lnkd.in/g9DZTXEE
Random Personal Musing
I'd like to reflect on a piece of wisdom from Stephen King's "On Writing: A Memoir of the Craft." King shares a plethora of insights into the life of a writer, but one notion that stands out is his advice on the importance of reading and writing regularly. King asserts, "If you want to be a writer, you must do two things above all others: read a lot and write a lot."
This simple yet profound guidance speaks volumes about the discipline required in the craft of writing. For King, these two activities are inseparable and fundamental to any writer's development. This advice resonates across industries and crafts, serving as a reminder that mastery in writing, as in any skill, requires constant practice and an unwavering commitment to learning.
It’s also a reminder of one of my favorite sayings from Jocko Willink, a retired U.S. Navy SEAL officer:
Freedom = discipline.
And Finally, A Quote
“I would have written less but I didn’t have the time”
― Blaise Pascal
Fin.