Senegal: The election everyone’s been waiting for
Getting to this point has been a long, dangerous and demoralising road for a country that – with good reason – considers itself to be a paragon of West African democracy
Bakary Demba Sy in Dakar
President Macky Sall claims that he never leaves the presidential palace without a copy of the Constitution.
It is ironic, then, that it was Sall who precipitated Senegal’s worst constitutional crisis in decades – a crisis which should be resolved on Sunday, when citizens finally get the chance to vote.
Getting to this point has been a long, dangerous and demoralising road for a country that – with good reason – considers itself to be a paragon of West African democracy. Senegal has never had a coup. It has never before delayed peaceful transfers of power.
This time threatened to be very different, however. As he approached the end of his second term in office, Sall pointedly refused to rule out running again. This sparked widespread protests and international trepidation, ultimately forcing him to confirm late last year that he would indeed step down – as required by that document that he carries around in his suit pocket.
But the political brinkmanship did not stop. Popular opposition figure Ousmane Sonko was in and out of prison, facing multiple criminal charges that he claims are politically motivated.
One of those charges resulted in a conviction that disqualified him from running for office. There were widespread protests from his supporters, who believe that he is being persecuted by the ruling party – prompting a brutal, deadly crackdown by security forces.
Then, last month, Sall made a declaration that shocked the nation – elections, due in February, would be postponed until December. This would give him an additional eight months in office. He said this was necessary to sort out confusion over who exactly was running for president.
The Constitutional Council disagreed, ordering him to set an election date immediately. With no more room to manoeuvre, Sall complied. He scheduled the election for 24 March, giving candidates just 13 days to campaign. He also promised to step down on 2 April, no matter what happens on Sunday.
Frontrunners
At the ballot box, voters will choose from 19 presidential candidates. Only one is a woman, and only two are considered to have any real chance of victory: Amadou Ba, a former prime minister from the ruling party; and Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who is leading the opposition Pastef party after Sonko’s suspension.
Like Sonko, Faye was imprisoned on what he claims were politically motivated charges (both were released earlier this month as part of a general amnesty for incidents related to political protests”).
Fatima Sarr, a journalist at Intelligences Magazine, says both these candidates are attracting considerable support at their campaign events, but cautions against drawing sweeping conclusions. “Do these people who follow them have their voter cards? Are they going to vote or not?”
Given the short campaign window, there are no reliable opinion polls, but most analysts agree that this will be a tightly fought and unpredictable vote.
Voter turnout is likely to be key to the result, with a higher youth vote skewing towards the opposition.
If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, there will be a run-off election (no date for that has been set).
Ba’s supporters argue that continuity is just what Senegal needs. They point to the Sall administration’s strong track record on infrastructure projects, including a new international airport, an improved highway network, and the completion of Dakar’s Train Express Régional, a light rail system.
“Amadou Ba is a statesman, a relaxed person, and his programme is very convincing given that he intends to continue the projects of President Macky Sall,” says Hawa Sy, a ruling party supporter.
Penda Khalifa, a communications student, says that she will vote for Faye. “When I read his programme, I realised that he did not omit any aspect and that he attaches great importance to other localities, because it must be said that Senegal is not limited to Dakar.”
The Pastef party manifesto also contains some radical proposals, including replacing the CFA franc – a controversial regional currency pegged to the euro – with a national currency.
Not everyone is convinced. “If Ousmane Sonko were the candidate, I would vote for him,” says Boubou Sow, a car washer in Dakar. But Sonko is not allowed to run, and Sow thinks that 43-year-old Faye is just too young for the land’s highest office.
After months of turmoil, Sunday’s election – and a potential run-off – will not solve all of the country’s political problems. But it should tell us who will take Sall’s place in the Presidential Palace – if, that is, the current president is as good as his word.
“The erosion of trust,” writes political scientist Amy Niang in The Conversation, “is such that the Senegalese public still doubts Sall’s commitment to fulfil his obligations and facilitate an orderly handover.”