Puck Picks
NHL Player Props YTD Record —— 33-66 (+3.2 Units)
Florida Panthers vs Anaheim Ducks
The only play from yours truly on the ice in terms of sides and totals comes from sunny California, where the Panthers will be playing the second night of a back-to-back against the Ducks. And from my vantage point, it is this rest advantage for the Ducks that has me Quacking.
Last season the Panthers struggled mightily in the second leg of back-to-backs, going just 3-6-3. This ugly record only gets worse when those back-to-back games are on the road, as the Panthers managed only 4 points from the 6 games they played away from home on the second night of a back-to-back. And I imagine playing on no rest might be especially problematic again this campaign because it means starting in net is Anthony Stolarz. His 2-1-0 record, 2.71 GAA, and .892 save percentage through three contests aren’t exactly something to write home about, but the projection gets even worse when factoring in that two of those three games came against the Sharks and Blackhawks.
Anaheim presents Stolarz with his first real test of the season this evening, and given his middling play against weaker competition, combined with his 3.73 GAA and .897 save percentage in 19 outings as a member of the Ducks last year, I don’t think the revenge angle will matter much. The guy just isn’t a good goaltender, and although he’s not likely to play often, when he does I’ll be looking to target the Panthers.
Meanwhile, Anaheim is no longer the worst team in the NHL! The highly touted youth is beginning to come through and produce as both William Carlson and Mason McTavish have looked like guys ready to break games. But more importantly for a mediocre (too bad) defensive team, the goaltending has drastically improved this season. John Gibson has regained the form that had him pegged as a future Vezina Candidate earlier in his career, and while it is hard to imagine him maintaining a Top-5 level of play, the upgrade from abysmal to above-average is massive. Particularly for a young team still learning the defensive side of the game having a goalie who can bail you out a few mistakes allows the offensive flair to have a chance.
So while it is typically felines who prey on the avian species, this evening I’m betting we see the Cats get their eyes pecked out by the young and feisty Ducks.
Ducks ML +155 (play to +148)
William Nylander Over 0.5 PowerPlay Points +165
There is no man in the NHL playing as well as Willy Styles is right now, and the Swedish international is undeniably the star of this NHL Global Series. This fact is no secret, and the market has steamed the vast majority of the Nylander props beyond my play zone, but one smaller market that I’m showing value on still is PowerPlay Point. The reason for that is two-fold, firstly Nylander has tallied PP points in 8 of his first 14 games. The second is that the international ice surface has more width and lower glass around the rink, these two factors when combined might in theory significantly increase the likelihood of penalties. An increase in powerplay chances should naturally see a discounted PowerPlay Point number, yet relative to where it’s been over the past two weeks the discount has yet to come in. These factors paired with the fact the boys in blue will certainly be looking to feed Nylander a little extra in a game that projects to have plenty of goals is more than enough to have me take a flyer on a +165 wager.
Dylan Cozens Over 2.5 SOGs +120
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why I like Cozens this evening for the Sabres. Tage Thompson is now hurt, and that void in minutes will be filled in some way, and the best bet to do so is Cozens. The twenty-two-year-old Canuck is set to take Thompson’s place centering the first line and is likely to see an increased workload with the team’s best player not available, and frankly, for good reason. Despite Thompson being the one who people love to talk about, Cozens has been incredibly productive himself in his short time in the NHL. But more importantly for us tonight, the guy ain’t scared to fire pucks on the net. This year he is averaging 18 shot attempts per 60 minutes and 9.01 shots on target per 60. If he sees the increase in ice time I expect him to, and those numbers remain true(ish), then Cozens should be in line for 2.78+ SOGs an evening. So when you give me +120 on that with those projections, I can’t help but bite.
The Association
NBA Player Props YTD ——- 48-32-3 (+16.9 Units)