PREAMBLE
It is often expressed that so long as ‘Sullivanism's America’ and ‘Trumpism's America’ continue to oppose one another, the US’s strategy towards China will remain uncertain and US-China relations will continue to suffer.
If Trump were to be re-elected, the risk of tensions and conflicts between the US and China would rise.
On the other hand, if the Democrats were to retain power, the relationship would benefit from more predictability.
Ultimately, however, political polarisation in America - and a lack of a bipartisan consensus on China - shall continue to bear instability upon this relationship.
AN ANALYSIS OF AMERICA’S STRATEGY AND PROSPECTS FOR US-CHINA RELATIONS (EXCERPTS)
Wang Jisi (王缉思), Jia Qingguo (贾庆国), Tang Yongsheng (唐永胜), Ni Feng (倪峰), Zhu Feng (朱锋), Xie Tao (谢韬), Da Wei (达巍) and Li Wei (李巍)
International Economic Review (国际经济评论), March 2024, Vol. 2
(Illustration by DALL·E 3)
“The Four Drivers of the US-China Rivalry” by Wang Jisi
(Excerpts translated by an ATA-certified linguist).
“The reasons why US-China relations are in an extended period of turmoil can be understood through four interrelated variables or perspectives. The first variable involves the shifting power dynamics between the two countries.”
“Harvard University Professor Graham Allison introduced the theory of the ‘Thucydides Trap’, which attempts to use the Peloponnesian War in ancient Greece to illustrate the inevitable confrontation, and sometimes even war, which arises between ‘established powers’ and ‘rising powers’.”
“The second way to observe the [recent] changes in US-China relations is through the opposition between the two countries’ political systems and ideologies as well as between their distinct cultures and histories.”
“Combining these first two perspectives offers a convincing explanation for potential future conflicts between the two sides: the US simply cannot accept a rapidly ascending nation that has diametrically opposed political values and challenges to both its cultural influence and hegemony. Thus it has to do its upmost to suppress China.”
“However, power dynamics and ideological factors alone still do not fully explain how this relationship has evolved.”
“A third perspective is needed when observing Sino-US relations: the changing global environment.”
“Over the past few decades, economic development and population growth have been imbalanced, both between and within countries, with widening gaps between rich and poor. Populism and nationalism have resonated with each other, exacerbating political conflicts and social divisions.”
“In this era of global turmoil, two emerging trends – deglobalisation [逆全球化] and pan-securitisation [泛安全化] – have also been driving US-China relations to their nadir [陷入低谷].”
“Nevertheless, these three dimensions are still insufficient to explain all of the recent changes in this relationship. Against a backdrop of shifting power dynamics, stark ideological divides and a turbulent global landscape, domestic politics in both the US and China have emerged as the fourth and most impactful variable in this relationship.”
“Today’s political polarisation and social division in the United States stem mainly from the structural changes in the US economy and imbalances in income distribution.”
“Class conflicts and ethnic tensions have led to distorted political struggles and shifting battlegrounds [政治斗争的扭曲和战场的转移]. The American Right defines its core mission as reviving their nation and its people, with slogans like ‘Make America Great Again’. They oppose multiculturalism, emphasise the American identity, push back against immigrants and refugees, and promote overt or covert racism [推行或明或暗的种族主义].”
“The American Left has reduced its focus on economic equality, turning instead to seek support from minorities, immigrants, refugees, women and the LGBTQ community. Left-wingers are now focusing on how to promote the interests of various ‘marginalised groups’, with slogans such as ‘Black Lives Matter’.”
“Now, struggles over identity politics are leading America into division and hardship. The political elites of both parties in the US are shifting the blame to other people and are attempting to restore domestic cohesion by exaggerating external threats.”
“Anti-Chinese sentiment and discrimination have become more prevalent in American society, with increasing incidents of violence against Asians, especially those of Chinese descent. The US Congress is introducing more and more anti-China legislation, targeting various aspects of China's domestic and foreign affairs. Surveys show a significant rise in negative views of China among the American public. In international affairs, both US political parties view China as America’s biggest strategic competitor. 2024 is an election year in the United States and it is expected that candidates from both parties will compete to show their toughness vis-à-vis the PRC.”
“In China, ever since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012, the CPC Central Committee, with Comrade Xi Jinping at its helm, has made historic achievements which have changed both the party and the country. [The Communist Party of] China has strengthened its leadership comprehensively, taking an even firmer hand in shaping and guiding China's ideology. It has fought resolutely against hostile forces from the United States and other Western countries in order to safeguard the security of China's politics, ideology, government and institutions. The Chinese government is taking firm, resolute actions to oppose plots by the ‘Taiwanese independence’ separatist [forces] with an unwavering will to achieve national reunification. China's path to modernisation offers humanity an alternative approach to achieving modernity and creates a new form of human civilisation [创造了人类文明新形态].”
“In recent interactions between China and the US, the stability and determination of Chinese politics contrast sharply with the chaos and uncertainty of American politics. For China to maintain its domestic stability, it must dare to struggle and be good at struggling with the United States. It must be mentally and materially prepared for possible future tumult in Sino-US relations. Domestic political struggles in America require the continued targeting of China [as a scapegoat]. The political establishments of both parties will persist in their hostility towards China.”
“In summary, there are four overlapping and interdependent dynamics [相互重叠、互为因果的逻辑] behind US-China rivalry and competition. By examining these dynamics, we can conclude that bilateral relations are unlikely to return to the depth of engagement and level of cooperation seen at the beginning of the 21st century for a long time. However, the long-term interests and strategic considerations of both countries dictate that they must both avoid war with one another and maintain a certain degree of economic cooperation. The greatest uncertainty for the US-China relationship in 2024 is the potential chaos that could arise from US domestic political strife. However, official and civilian engagement between the two countries since 2023 have helped clarify the upper limit of the development of bilateral relations and the bottom line for [potential] conflict [使双边关系的发展上限和冲突底线趋向清晰]. Improving Sino-US relations may be difficult in 2024, but relative stability is to be expected.”