Zhang Jian (张健)
Director of CICIR’s Institute of European Studies concluding remarks on the prospects in EU integration following the Russo-Ukrainian near-border conflict.
The first part on China’s view of EU geopolitical direction and geoeconomics sustainability is accessible HERE.
III. Prospects for integration
“On the positive side, the Ukraine crisis has brought new momentum to European integration: first, a greater sense of [belonging to] a community of common destiny [命运共同体); second, a heightened awareness of geopolitics; and third, an increased [sense of] urgency to act collectively. At the same time, however, the crisis in Ukraine has reinforced those negative factors that already existed within the EU and that have been hindering integration.”
“First, internal conflicts [within the EU] will become increasingly prominent:
Tensions between north and south. As the southern European countries are generally strapped for cash [捉襟见肘], they cannot afford to spend more on the cost-of-living crisis. The richer northern countries, on the other hand, are able to allocate more resources to protect their citizens and businesses. This means that German companies, relative to companies in France and southern European countries, will become more competitive. This will further increase the economic divide between countries such as Germany and those in southern European. This will naturally lead to resentment by these countries.
Tensions between east and west. Although both eastern and western [European countries] agree on their short-term policies towards Russia, there are major differences in long-term strategic goals. Over time, these differences will become more pronounced.”
“Second, lack of leadership. European integration is mainly driven by its big powers. France and Germany, the two largest countries, have traditionally played the role of leaders of European integration. However, the crisis in Ukraine has weakened this role. First, the moral authority of both countries has declined, especially in the eyes of the CEE and Scandinavian countries. Since France and Germany’s past policies towards Russia have been "wrong", any EU-related policy proposals coming from them could instinctively trigger suspicion and even opposition from the CEE and Scandinavian countries.”
Long version: Zhang adds that, “European integration depends to a large extent on resolving the ‘German problem’ [德国问题]. Germany has long been a good student when it comes to European integration and its most important input has been its financial contribution … However, Germany has been the country hardest hit by the crisis in Ukraine and its economic development is fraught with uncertainty. Its authority within the EU has largely been based on its long history of outstanding economic performance and its influence as a role model. [However,] once the aura of [Germany’s] economic success disappears, its authority will inevitably decline.” Zhang continues by anticipating that with a weak economy, Germany will become more focused on its own national interests and will be even less willing to support France in its push for greater EU financial integration.
“Third, the constraints of populism. This trend has been demonstrated by elections in EU countries since the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine. In the French presidential election of May 2020, the far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen won a record share of the vote; and in parliamentary elections in June [2020], the far-right and far-left parties secured a significant increase in seats, forcing the ruling party to form a minority government. In Sweden’s parliamentary elections in September [last year], the far-right Democrats became the second largest party in parliament and took part in ruling the country [Comment: the Democrats are not actually part of Sweden’s coalition government]. The Italian elections on September 26 produced the most right-wing government in Italy's history. Meloni, the new Prime Minister, is the leader of the Brothers of Itlay, a far-right party with fascist roots. The polarisation and fragmentation of politics will make it more difficult for EU member states to coordinate and compromise, hindering the deepening of [European] integration.”
Long version: Zhang predicts that “breakthroughs in the crucial areas of finance, foreign affairs and defence, immigration and structural reforms will be very difficult to achieve.” He concludes this section by stating: “At the moment, behind the apparent unity of the EU, interests have been further fragmented, rifts have widened and cohesion has been declining. For the next three to five years at least, the EU will not be in a position to amend its treaties significantly. This may even remain the case for a very long time to come.”
IV. Conclusion
“The crisis in Ukraine will affect the development prospects of the EU significantly. It is an historic event of decisive importance in the history of the EU's development, which will further weaken the EU's strength and international influence and accelerate its marginalisation in the global geopolitical landscape. The EU was born during the Cold War. Its development and strengthening has contributed to the world's multipolarisation and has helped to balance against the hegemony of the United States. The Ukraine crisis is a tragic event for the EU. It has not only disrupted its normal development process but may also kill its geopolitical dream of becoming one of the world’s major poles. This is not conducive to the world’s multipolarisation nor the containment of hegemonism and power politics. Of course, none of this is inevitable. If the EU is able to reflect properly on the lessons of the Ukraine crisis, unite and adopt a more open and tolerant attitude towards the world, then the EU may [still] have a better future.”
Concluding remarks in the the long-form version of Zhang’s article:
“First, the EU’s share in the global economy will continue to decline. In the next three to five years, the EU’s economy will remain in the doldrums and will find it difficult to extricate itself from the shadows of high debt, large deficits, high inflation, a weak currency and low or even negative growth. At the same time, the EU's ‘Europe first’ mentality will increase, barriers will continue to be raised [堡垒化进程将继续发展] and its protectionist tendencies will strengthen. This will further weaken the EU’s [economic] competitiveness as well as its ability to play a leading role in such areas as global economic rule- and standard-setting. The so-called ‘Brussels effect’, on which the EU so prides itself, will also gradually wane.”
“Second, the EU's international image has been further damaged. No matter how much the EU and the West blame Russia, the fact that a conflict has once again erupted in Europe is in itself indicative of the failure of the EU's strategy towards Russia. The EU has not found a way to coexist with Russia on the same continent since the end of the Cold War. Additionally, the EU has long been engaged in aggressive values-based diplomacy, promoting colour revolutions in former Soviet countries such as Ukraine. But the crisis in Ukraine has underscored the hypocrisy of its double standards and values in international affairs. For example, it welcomes Ukrainian refugees but has the exact opposite attitude towards refugees from the Middle East, Africa and other regions. It provides substantial aid to Ukraine but largely ignores humanitarian disasters in Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, and elsewhere.”
“Third, the EU's role as an international balancing power is weakening. The EU hopes to pursue a ‘third way’ in the context of great power competition, play a balancing role [in global affairs] and formulate foreign policies based on its own interests, rather than simply following the US blindly. However, as the power gap between Europe and the US widens, the EU may become more like the UK or Canada [英国化或加拿大化] in future. In other words, the EU could gradually lose its independent international character and become more of a subordinate and follower of the US, incapable of defending its own interests or formulating an independent foreign policy.”
“Fourth, the EU's strategic contraction is accelerating and its foreign policy is becoming increasingly regionalised. On the one hand, whether the EU is united or not, as its strength declines, it will be difficult for it to become an independent pole in the world’s constellation of powers. And whether it wants to or not, it will also be difficult for it to play a global role [全球性角色]. On the other hand, even if the crisis in Ukraine were to end, the hostility between Europe and Russia will continue for a long time to come. This means that the diplomatic focus of CEE and northern European countries will remain to a great extent the EU’s diplomatic focus. In the EU's wider neighbourhood, the south, in addition to the east, is also beset with crises: nuclear proliferation and war in the Middle East, unrest in Africa, climate disasters, terrorism, etc. This will use up a great deal of the EU's energy as well. Although the EU has launched its own Indo-Pacific strategy, this increasingly important region will be largely relegated to being a bargaining chip with the US: either through [the EU’s] symbolic involvement there to please the US or through necessary posturing [in the region] in order to bring the US back to Europe (this holds especially true for some CEE countries). It will be very difficult for the EU to commit [proper] resources and project power both globally and in the so-called ‘Indo-Pacific’ region as an independent force.”
translated and reposted under Creative Commons
Sophia Leonard Buisson studied Chinese at SOAS, and currently studying for an MSc in Security Studies at UCL.