PREAMBLE
The upcoming Euro-China summit, like the recent US-China summit in San Francisco, can lay some sort of the political groundwork for resolving and easing differences between European Union countries and China.
The 24th EU-China summit was held in Beijing on Thursday. Though expectations are low on both sides for this first in-person summit in four years, “I think we need to be slightly realistic that there’s not a kind of single outstanding deliverable which will be crowning the summit”, commented one senior EU official to Politico.
Indeed, Jian Junbo (简军波), the deputy director of Fudan University’s Centre for China-Europe Relations has this to say:
“The difference in the way China and the EU present their policies towards one another – with the EU emphasising differences and conflicts, and China emphasising similarities and cooperation – reflects diametrically opposed ways of thinking about their bilateral relations: China hopes to reduce the risk of conflict by looking for space for cooperation through a search for common ground while retaining differences; whereas the European side hopes that by facing problems squarely, it will find opportunities for their resolution, which will then lay the groundwork for potential cooperation.”
We shall read Jian Junbo brief analysis from one of his earlier papers during a period when European countries rely on one single supplier – China – for 98% of their rare earth supply, 93% of their magnesium and 97% of their lithium needs.
1. Strategic autonomy:
Positive aspects:
Benefits the development of EU-China relations by freeing the EU from the influence of “third parties” (i.e. the US).
In line with China’s desire for a multipolar world order.
Negative aspects:
Has a strong anti-China element to it:
Quote: “Although European strategic autonomy forms to some extent the basis for China-EU strategic cooperation, it is nevertheless a double-edged sword for China-EU relations and is to a certain extent an important causal factor in the conflict over values between China and Europe. Within Europe's strategic autonomy, safeguarding Europe's vision of a self-proclaimed ‘rules-based and liberal’ international order, upholding the authoritativeness of European norms and consolidating the transatlantic ‘values’ alliance are its major concerns. Against this backdrop, the inevitable clash of values between the two powers that are China and Europe, which adhere to different social systems, ideologies and civilisational ideals, is bound to occur in the context of the above-mentioned EU perspective and will manifest itself through concrete confrontational incidents.” [Comment: It is common for Chinese scholars to use “EU” and “Europe” interchangeably]
Outlook:
The EU’s desire for greater strategic autonomy is still present. However, the war in Ukraine has had a negative impact on its development.
2. EU-China – Prospects:
The EU’s recent tilt towards Washington will remain and EU-China relations may suffer.
Europe is too weak to jeopardise its economic ties with China. The pull of the Chinese market will remain. However, the EU’s decoupling from China in certain areas is expected to continue.
The EU and its member states may strengthen their relations with Taiwan, Japan and other Indo-Pacific countries, and may continue to interfere in China’s “internal affairs”.
Potential areas of cooperation still abound.
3. Policy recommendations:
Against the backdrop of Sino-US rivalry, Beijing should place its relations with Europe as one of its top foreign policy priorities.
Despite their increasing closeness, China should make sure not to equate Europe with the US.
Beijing should do its upmost to ease tensions and not provoke conflicts with actors at all levels in Europe (不主动激发矛盾) on condition that China’s core national interests are not at stake.
China should consider focusing its efforts both on those member states that are “friendlier” (更为友好) towards China and on those countries that have a considerable impact on Sino-European relations (e.g. France, Germany and members of the Visegrad Group).
When China’s core interests are involved, China should be ready to fight back by adopting countermeasures at the economic and diplomatic levels.