Once reported by Economist that about 8% of publicly listed European firms’ revenues are from China, compared with 4% for American ones, according to Morgan Stanley, an American bank. Europe and America send a similar share of goods exports to China (7-9%), but because Europe is a more trade-intensive economy its sensitivity is higher. Multinational investments in China are worth 2% of Europe’s gdp compared with 1% for America.
It is also expressed that Europe has to be waking up to the “malevolent influence of the Chinese regime.” It is advisable that European leaders need a common political and economic strategy to manage China’s irreversible rise, (Carnegie Endowment, 4th. April 2023).
It is a reinforcefull acknowledgement by President of European Commission von der Leyen in an EU-China relations talk at the Mercator Institute for China Studies and the European Policy Centre where her view of China, March 30, 2023, on how the EU had to put in place a coherent security, economic, and trade policy toward China. Europe, she warned, where the “systemic change of the international order” by President Xi Jinping was to make “China less dependent on the world and the world more dependent on China.”
“This is an area where we rely on one single supplier – China – for 98% of our rare earth supply 93% of our magnesium and 97% of our lithium – just to name a few,” von der Leyen reminded her audience.
It is also of an era when the European countries must grapple with the reality that it can no longer impose its “leadership” on the Third World as it once did - colonising Africa and exploiting her wealthy resources, (Chandran Nair).
It is also during a situation on transborder special military operation where China has turned from a great economic power into a great foreign policy power, having achieved tremendous success in this field; Europe, on the other hand, has gone even farther towards its downfall (Sergei Karaganov, Russia Global Affairs, 2023).
On those premises, with a vision of a multipolar world, we seek to enquire - extracted from Sinification - what are the geopolitical challenges shall confront China on her quest in developing bilateral relations with the European Union, and ways and approaches in enhancing their economic relations.
Author: Jian Junbo (简军波) – Deputy director of the Centre for China-Europe Relations, Fudan University.
Background: Academic. Focus: EU/EU-China relations. PhD Fudan University (2006).
Published: January 2023
Source: The Paper
“Despite the real need and potential for cooperation, China-EU relations may nevertheless encounter important challenges in 2023. Amidst a number of intractable structural differences, the development of bilateral relations could suffer major setbacks both in terms of geopolitical conflicts and at the level of economic relations.”
Summary:
1. Strategic autonomy¹:
Positive aspects:
Benefits the development of EU-China relations by freeing the EU from the influence of “third parties” (i.e. the US).
In line with China’s desire for a multipolar world order.
Negative aspects:
Has a strong anti-China element to it:
Quote: “Although European strategic autonomy forms to some extent the basis for China-EU strategic cooperation, it is nevertheless a double-edged sword for China-EU relations and is to a certain extent an important causal factor in the conflict over values between China and Europe. Within Europe's strategic autonomy, safeguarding Europe's vision of a self-proclaimed ‘rules-based and liberal’ international order, upholding the authoritativeness of European norms and consolidating the transatlantic ‘values’ alliance are its major concerns. Against this backdrop, the inevitable clash of values between the two powers that are China and Europe, which adhere to different social systems, ideologies and civilisational ideals, is bound to occur in the context of the above-mentioned EU perspective and will manifest itself through concrete confrontational incidents.” [Comment: It is common for Chinese scholars to use “EU” and “Europe” interchangeably]
Outlook:
The EU’s desire for greater strategic autonomy is still present. However, the war in Ukraine has had a negative impact on its development.
2. EU-China – Prospects for 2023:
The EU’s recent tilt towards Washington will remain and EU-China relations may suffer.
Quote 1: “As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, Europe's negative feelings towards China caused by the differences in stance taken by both sides in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict will accumulate and develop into specific policies and actions towards China. This will include a certain amount of cooperation with the US in its efforts to suppress China. However, strategically speaking, Europe will not develop its own independent policies to contain China.”
Quote 2: “The difference in stance taken by the EU and China on the Russia-Ukraine issue has led to a growing distrust of China and, to a certain extent, to a closer alignment with the US's position on China.” (from a different article)
Europe is too weak to jeopardise its economic ties with China. The pull of the Chinese market will remain. However, the EU’s decoupling from China in certain areas is expected to continue.
The EU and its member states may strengthen their relations with Taiwan, Japan and other Indo-Pacific countries, and may continue to interfere in China’s “internal affairs”.
Potential areas of cooperation still abound.
3. Suggestions:
Against the backdrop of Sino-US rivalry, Beijing should place its relations with Europe as one of its top foreign policy priorities.
Despite their increasing closeness, China should make sure not to equate Europe with the US.
Beijing should do its upmost to ease tensions and not provoke conflicts with actors at all levels in Europe (不主动激发矛盾) on condition that China’s core national interests are not at stake.
China should consider focusing its efforts both on those member states that are “friendlier” (更为友好) towards China and on those countries that have a considerable impact on Sino-European relations (e.g. France, Germany and members of the Visegrad Group).
When China’s core interests are involved, China should be ready to fight back by adopting countermeasure at the economic and diplomatic levels.