An interview with Niu Xinchun (牛新春)
by Straight News (直新闻) – 08.10.2023
Name: Niu Xinchun (牛新春)
Age: 55
Position: Director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR)
Formerly: Deputy Director of CICIR’s Institute of American Studies (2006-2011)
Research focus: Politics in the Middle East; US-China relations; Taiwan
Education: BA Shanxi Normal University (1989); MA Jilin University (missing date); PhD CICIR (2006)
[Answering a question as to why this conflict erupted so suddenly]
This Israeli-Palestinian conflict did happen very suddenly indeed. Both Israel’s Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu and the head of the country’s intelligence agency, Mossad, have said that they had no prior intelligence on this and were [thus] caught unprepared. There are several background reasons behind this conflict in Gaza.
First, since Netanyahu's new government came to power at the beginning of this year, it has been the most right-wing government in Israel's history. It includes two far-right political parties. Held hostage by these two parties, this government has taken many extreme and hard-line measures against the Palestinians in just under a year. Things like the Israeli military police sneaking into the Al-Aqsa Mosque, the Israeli military evicting Palestinians from their houses, more Israeli settlements being built, Israel’s government condoning attacks on Palestinian villages by Israeli Jewish settlers in Palestinian territories, all these things over the past year or so had in fact already put Israeli-Palestinian relations under great strain. This is one basic backdrop [to this new conflict].
There is another backdrop, which is that over the past two months, discussions over the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel had almost been completed and a basic framework already agreed upon. In other words, it seemed possible that Saudi Arabia and Israel would establish diplomatic relations in the coming months, which made Hamas anxious. This is another important reason explaining why they have acted now.
A further reason is that between 2008 and now, this is already the fifth conflict to have taken place in Gaza. In other words, there has been a conflict in Gaza every two to three years. The last major conflict was in 2021, and we are now in the autumn of 2023. Given this time frame, another Gaza conflict was on the horizon.
On the prospects of Saudi Arabia and Israel normalising relations
It is very likely that the ongoing negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel to establish diplomatic relations will be interrupted. In 2020, under the mediation of the United States, four Arab countries signed the Abraham Accords establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. Up until now, the Biden administration had made the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel the most important task of the US’s Middle East policy. An agreement had been thought possible in the coming months. But now that the Gaza conflict has occurred, it will be impossible for the Saudis to continue negotiating with Israel with regards the establishment of diplomatic relations, especially if Israel launches a large-scale on-the-ground incursion into Gaza in the coming days resulting in a relatively serious humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip. One can be quite sure that these negotiations will now be halted for some time to come.
On the US’s attitude towards this conflict
In fact, this has been the consistent position and attitude of the US for many years. From the time of the establishment of the State of Israel, and especially since the Six-Day War in 1967, the United States has always overwhelmingly supported Israel politically, militarily and economically. Following the outbreak of the current Gaza conflict, the attitude of the United States [towards Israel] has again been the most positive.
The United States has condemned Hamas’s attack as a terrorist attack and said that Israel has the right to defend its interests and that America is willing to provide Israel with all the help it needs. In reality, this kind of statement is largely about supporting them morally. As far as Israel is concerned, if it wants to carry out air strikes on Gaza, or if it wants to launch a full-scale on-the-ground incursion into Gaza, it has enough military power to do so on its own. So the US’s posture is to a large extent symbolic moral support at the political level.
Of course, the US’s overwhelming support for Israel is not helpful for the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
On the conflict’s root cause and the scope for further escalation
The root cause of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is, ultimately, the absence of a Palestinian State. That is to say, Israel's long-standing military control over Palestinian territory and the Palestinian people is the most fundamental cause of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
According to the 1947 UN resolution, both a State of Israel and a State of Palestine should have been established in 1948. But the State of Palestine was never established. This eventually led to four major wars in the Middle East.
According to an agreement reached between the Palestinians and the Israelis in 1993, an interim government should have been established in Palestine after 1993, followed by the establishment of a full-fledged government and the establishment of a sovereign and independent Palestinian State five years later. However, 30 years have passed since 1993 and no Palestinian State has been established. On the contrary, all Palestinian territories are under Israeli military occupation and control. Where there is military occupation and military control, there will definitely be armed resistance. This is the most fundamental cause of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
As to whether this Israeli-Palestinian conflict will expand in scope, it is still difficult to say. Because right now it remains a conflict between Gaza and Israel only. Whether in the coming days there will also be attacks on Israel by militant groups in the West Bank, or whether Hezbollah in Lebanon will launch an attack on Israel, or whether pro-Iranian militant groups such as those in Syria will also get involved, remains uncertain at this point.