Chen Qi - professor of International Relations in the School of Social Sciences at Tsinghua University and Chief Expert for Key Programs of China's National Social Science Fund - elaborates during an interview with:
The Global Times: “Why do the US military and political establishments regard the next 5-10 years as critical to the Sino-US relationship? What will the characteristics of the bilateral ties be during this time? At what levels is the US likely to contain China's development?”
Chen Qi: “Based on the official policy declarations made by the US and China, the importance of the next 5-10 years speaks for itself. This period will determine the basic outcome of the intense competition or game that is currently taking place.
“Over this time, using both offense and defense, China and the US will compete and struggle in a variety of areas. There will be no overall verdict on who is the winner; the main determinant of the outcome will be one's capacity to boost the vitality of their system and commit fewer blunders.
“Capitalizing on the strengths and avoiding flaws will be crucial. On the other hand, you will fall behind in this crucial competition if you do not consistently engage in policy innovation and institutional reforms.
“The US is likely to compete with China on the following fronts over the next 5-10 years:
“It will attempt to encroach on China's strategic space by its dazzling 眼花缭乱 alliance diplomacy. It will further attempt to curb China's military development and modernization through export controls and military deterrence on issues related to China's core interests, such as Taiwan. All are undertaken in an effort to uphold US hegemony and prevent the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation;
“It will try to "de-Sinicize" global industrial supply chains and slow China's economic growth even further by enforcing increasingly stringent "long-arm jurisdiction" measures and export controls.
“It will mobilize its international propaganda machine to portray China as a ‘destructive force’ in the international order. Additionally, it will portray the conflict with China as an ideological struggle to uphold Western values and way of life.”
Global Times: “What are the strengths and weaknesses of the two sides, as they will manifest in this game or competition over the following five to ten years?”
Chen Qi: “The most important element in the Sino-US competition is the human factor, that is, the competition for talent. American colleges and universities continue to attract young people from a wide range of countries, providing a wealth of talent for American scientific and technological research and industrial development.
“Chinese universities' progress in teaching and research, as well as their strengths, are obvious to all, as they keep ascending the ranks of the top universities. We must, however, first get past some institutional hurdles and deal with the brain drain problem if we want to establish ourselves as a global talent magnet.
“Due to America’s ‘overbearing self-confidence’ in its own system and growing political polarization, rational adjustments to its domestic and foreign policies have become increasingly difficult.
“The deterioration of domestic consensus has exacerbated the rigidity of bipartisan policies toward China. Despite the fact that everyone now agrees that the Trump administration's trade war with China was a failure, Washington has been unable to correct its course.”
Global Times: “How should we break free from the US siege?”
Qi Chen: “First, we must maintain confidence in China's economic growth. The so-called ‘China has reached its peak’ theory, which is essentially a new iteration of the ‘Chinese decline’ theory, was the subject of speculation earlier this year in American public opinion.
“The more China takes the initiative to open up to the outside world and maintain the momentum of continued economic development, the more difficult it will be for the US to "de-Sinicize" the global economy.
“Second, the biggest security challenge between the US and China is now the issue of Taiwan. Increasingly, the US has been openly incorporating it into NATO's globalization and internationalization as a means of containing China.
“We must wage a dual effort of military struggle and diplomatic appeasement in response to America's propensity to shift its strategic ambiguity and empower ‘Taiwan independence’ forces. This will address the strategic concerns of neighboring countries and EU member states to the greatest extent possible.
“Finally, the various ways the US stigmatizes China should be vigorously opposed. We cannot let the US-led ideological discourse in international relations dictate how we conduct our affairs; rather, we must take the strategic initiative in setting the agenda as well as the pace, and avoid depleting our resources on issues of ideology and values.”
Global Times: “The current state of the world is undergoing many changes, including a ‘wave of reconciliation’ in the Middle East and some African nations openly criticizing Europe and the US. What do you consider to be the most crucial aspect at the moment? What is the trajectory of the world as the various forces wax and wane?”
Chen Qi: “One of the principal contradictions in the international community today is the struggle between forces that continue to incite war and those that strive for peace.
“On the one hand, the US has, whether intentionally or unintentionally, tied some nations to its 'war chariot' 战车 by fanning the flames and compelling them to take sides. This has made peace talks on the Russia-Ukraine conflict all but impossible;
“on the other hand, voices and forces for peace are gradually gaining momentum. China has successively put forward the Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI), and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI), which are representatives of such forces.”
Global Times: “How should China achieve better development amidst the changing international landscape?”
Chen Qi: “First and foremost, China must maintain its strategic resolve. Second, we should encourage high-quality development and break free from 'bottle-necks' imposed by others in the high-tech sector, so that the United States cannot and dare not 'decouple' from China.
“China must, to reiterate, maintain a high level of openness to the outside world. The more comprehensive its resource exchange with other countries, the more complete and secure its development will be.
“Finally, China should work on developing its ‘inner strength’ 内功. If we maximize the vitality of the system and market actors, stimulate the potential for innovation, and improve ourselves, we will undoubtedly be invincible.” (Global Times)