INTRODUCTION
The Western Indian Ocean (WIO), the region lying between India, the Suez Canal and South Africa, is strategically critical as it contains the key maritime chokepoints of the Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. In 2018, nearly 6.2 million barrels of oil flowed through the Bab el-Mandeb every day towards Asia and Europe. Deepwater sea lanes passing through the region are a critical node in the global energy network as well as geoconomic and geopolitic dynamics. Great power states like the U.S., China, Japan, Italy and France host military bases in Djibouti making it an arena of major power contestation.
بَاب اَلْمَنْدَب bāb al-mandab means "Gateway (Bab) of anguish" - this is a chokepoint between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea.
1. A 14th July 2022 dry meeting had brought together the prime ministers of India and Israel (I2) – Narendra Modi and Yair Lapid — and the presidents of the US and the UAE (U2), Joe Biden and Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan.
2. Though essentially promoted “Davos in the Desert” as joint venture partnership on storage facilities for renewable energy and on the establishment of food corridors, I2U2 is transforming the geopolitical map of the Middle East. The new identity began with the 2020 Abraham Accords Declaration – signed between the US, UAE and Israel in August 2020; Israel and the UAE then normalised ties in September 2020.
3. The new “I2U2 QUAD” not only positions the collective strengths of the four countries, but enables India – already as partnership with the US, Australia and Japan in the Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Security Dialogue: The QUAD – that ensured positive posture against a rising China.
Further, the I2U2 QUAD gives India the flexibility to engage more freely with Israel and India’s othet state partners in the Gulf region. Israel is regarded as a key security partner with defence trade between the two countries valued at about US$1 billion annually. One of the Gulf countries with whom India has developed international relationships closely – seen as key interlocutors on Afghanistan state of affairs – Qatar being a case country in point. The UAE has slso been regarded as an interlocutor for India when it comes to Pakistan.
4. The greatest beneficial member of I2U2 that is not broadly well-articulatrd but hidden from a deeper analysis is Israel. Israel is emerging as a key partner in domains such as security, technology, energy and agriculture. Another building block of the I2U2 QUAD is the strengthening of ties between the UAE and Israel. The Abraham Accords, facilitated by the US Secretary of State Blinken, resulted in the establishment of diplomatic relations between the UAE and Israel in 2020. These states share concerns about piracy and terrorism, Iran’s regional behaviourial posture and its ongoing nuclear programme, and the emerging concern of a China-Pakistan economic corridor in the Belt and Road hub in Gwadar, Palistan.
5. More importantly, less analysed nor articulated, is the UAE-Israel intelligence base on Yemeni island of Socotra where we shall look at the Israeli ambitions and intentions :
a) The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel had been working silently and stealthly on multiple projects to establish intelligence-gathering bases on the Yemeni island of Socotra – according to JForum, the official site of the Jewish and French-speaking community – which is strategically located in the Arabian Sea some 350 kilometers (217 miles) south of Yemen and currently under the control of the United Arab Emirates.
b) The purpose of any such a spy station would be able to collect sensitive intelligence across the region, particularly from the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a sea route chokepoint between the Horn of Africa and the south of Yemen, along with the Gulf of Aden and the Middle East.
c) It is also alleged that Tel Aviv’s surveillance centers would monitor the actions of Houthi militants in Yemen and Iranian naval movements in the region, as well as survey-reconnaissance and examine sea and air traffics in the southern part of the Red Sea.
d) The Zionist regime has often praised UAE’s actions on the Yemeni island of Socotra; according to the Al-Alam news agency, Israeli security and military services expressed their satisfaction regarding the UAE’s control of Socotra, saying that they were more worried that the Houthi movement would possibly dominate the strategic island.
e) A report published on the website of Hebrew Channel 12 by an expert in Middle Eastern affairs who is very close to Tel Aviv’s armed forces had this to say: “Socotra Island is attracting a lot of attention from the Israeli security services.” The report further elaborated, “The UAE is currently building military bases on the island and is investing to gain the support of people there.”
f) In addition, there was a report revealing that Tel Aviv’s security and military experts were closely monitoring developments on the island by the separatist STC (Southern Transitional Council).
g) An Israeli expert who works as an Arab world analyst on Hebrew television had expressedly said that Israel is ready to assist the STC movement in its confrontation with Iran’s allies.
It is noteworthy that the Houthi movement has emphasized that Israel is seeking a role in the country with the UAE’s help. Daifallah al-Shami, information minister in the Houthi-led Yemeni National Salvation Government, noted that the Zionist regime considers the nation to be a serious threat and is trying to play a role in Yemen by way of the UAE and its allies, including the STC.
h) Both Arab and Iranian media had alleged that in 2016 Israel started building an intelligence-gathering base at the top of Mount Ambassaira, south of the Eritrean capital of Asmara. The station, according to these reports, is designed to monitor the conflict in Yemen as well as the naval situation in the region, including the movements of Iranian naval forces.
i) Though presently, there is nothing much detailed information what or how the UAE would play a role in the Socotra installation, there are already two sites on the Socotra that have been short-listed as intelligence-gathering bases, namely the Momi region in the east of the island, where the Jamgua Center will be built, and a locality on the west side of the island, where the Katanan Center will be established.
6. Importance of Socotra, typically known as the “Jewel of the Gulf of Aden,” the island of Socotra, officially a part of Yemen, is the largest of the archipelago of the same name, which consists of four islands and two islets sitting at a strategic location in the Indian Ocean, off the Horn of Africa’s coast, in the Arabian Sea. Socotra overlooks the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Most exports of oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf that transit the Suez Canal or the Suez Canal and Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) Pipeline pass through the strait. Every day over 3 million barrels of oil travel from the Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea. Ships navigating this route travel westward through the Arabian Sea into the Gulf of Aden, then turn north, entering the Red Sea via the narrow pass at Bab-el-Mandeb before proceeding onto the Suez Canal.
7. The island’s strategic location and potential to become one of the most important places in the area has attracted the attention of the expansionist and ambitious UAE government, which is why they have been sending their military forces there to control it. Dubai Ports World (DP World) has established a number of docking stations along the Red Sea and has identified Socotra for its future business expansion, hence the recent charm offensive.
With a portfolio of 78 operational marine and inland terminals supported by more than 50 related businesses in 40 countries across six continents, the presence of DP World in Socotra could make the tiny United Arab constellation of emirates one of the most powerful nations on planet earth.
(Aside, but a narrative connected to the close relation with Israel, lays what are regarded as the “influence and security considerations” that have been cited as the major reasons for the UAE breaking ranks with its Arab neighbors to normalize ties with Israel, leading to accusations that the Emirati rulers have been colluding with the Zionist occupying state and the U.S. in diplomatic aggression against the Palestinians. Despite the UAE’s insistence that the normalization deal prevents further annexation of Palestinian territory, critics have suggested that the agreement does nothing of the sort and instead helped the then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli Right to harden their position. Indeed, Netanyahu had long maintained that he could force Arab countries to reverse the “land for peace” formula – which has been the bedrock of any solution – by normalizing ties with Arab autocrats without giving occupied territory back to the Palestinians).
8. The war in Yemen and intra-Gulf rivalries have been a significant contributing factor in shaping the geopolitics of the WIO. As a result, the UAE has assertively engaged with the region and projected its growing power into both the continental and maritime space of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Last June, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) seized Socotra’s capital city of Hadiboh, after fighting off Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi’s forces, whose government accused the UAE of supporting the separatist STC to serve its own ambitions in the country. Since the start of the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, the UAE, formally a Saudi ally, backed the STC, a Yemeni separatist movement. This changed the balance of power in the area to its favor, successfully turning Socotra into its outpost. In a tweet, Mukhtar al-Rahbi, the adviser to the minister of information in Hadi’s government, said the UAE intends to separate the province from Yemen and establish military bases there under the pretext of “protecting it from Qatar and Turkey.” He also accused the Emirates of “seeking full control of the archipelago’s air and sea domains, seizing its natural resources, and transferring the necessary plants, minerals and precious stones to Abu Dhabi.”
Besides, the Emirati leadership has been slowly taking the upper hand in its diplomatic, military and economic competition with Saudi Arabia as the kingdom has suffered most of the negative consequences of the conflict with Yemen’s Houthis, including direct strikes on its territory. For years, the UAE has been seeking to annex the island, and the collapse of the Yemeni state due to years of instability has paved the way for this takeover.
9. With the Pakistan and China close collaboration, Israel nowadays not only will focus upon Iran but also the Pakistan’s Gwadar Port is gaining intelligence traction, too. As part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Beijing developed the port in Gwadar so that goods unloaded there could be shipped overland to China. Last June, the Pakistani government approved a $7.2 billion upgrade to a railway that will connect Gwadar to Kashgar, China. The port is not yet operating at capacity, but the direction seems clear.
10. The latest move by the UAE and Israel has triggered alarms in the Middle Kingdom as a detailed article published in the South China Morning Post in August 2020 had expressed China‘s fears about how “the U.S. wants Arab-Israeli support in countering Beijing’s influence over supply routes seen as life-and-death matter for the Chinese economy.”
Therefore, within this context, the Socotra base will allow Tel Aviv to keep an eye on Gwadar Port, which will not only serve the U.S. but also greatly assist India, which is a strong ally of Israel and a rival of China and Pakistan.
Israel, or in this case the U.S., cannot bear having Gwadar Port develop into a strategic business hub. It is trying its best to create obstacles to hinder the entire project, and what can be concluded from all this is that Socotra will from now on neither be for the Houthi rebels, nor for the UAE or Yemen, but under the complete control of Tel Aviv and Washington.
CONCLUSION
This rapidly dynamic geopolitical scenario is altering the world’s balance of power as never before. Israeli – and U.S. – radars and other electronic-sniffing equipments will soon be in the most strategic places in the region. The security, military and intelligence cooperation that the UAE aspires to establish with the Israelis will ensure the implementation of their policy of expansion and influence over the fates and decisions of other Arab countries in the region, and will dangerously pave the way for Tel Aviv to have extra footholds in the area while also aggressively maintaining its occupation of Palestinian territories.
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