Breaking: Issue 1 is Losing in the Polls

Recent polls show that Ohio’s Issue 1 is lagging badly with Ohio voters.

And when I say badly, one poll (USA Today/Suffolk, 500 voters) found:

• 57% of likely voters oppose it; 26% support it

• 60% of independents oppose it

• a plurality of likely Republican voters oppose it (41%-38%), and 41% of voters who voted for Trump oppose it

• Issue 1 is losing at all income levels, across all demographic groups, age and education level, along with in all regions of Ohio.

Like I said…bad.

But why is this NOT, in fact, breaking news?

Because almost every aspect of the far right’s agenda lags in the polls. That’s almost always the case. And it’s usually this bad, or worse.

For example, that same poll found that by 58-32, Ohioans support guaranteeing abortion access here through this November’s ballot amendment. Again, the far-right’s position is deeply underwater.

Is this new? Again, no.

And you know what? The far right knows it! And the knowledge that most of their agenda is deeply unpopular shapes almost everything they do in politics.

It’s why they gerrymander in the first place.

It’s why they push their most toxic priorities through those rigged statehouses (modern-day Laboratories of Autocracy, to quote a book I really like), where there is far less attention, than in the high-profile halls of the US Senate.

It’s why they are so eager to change the rules through measures like Issue 1, so that an issue with only 40% support can WIN the day in the future. (Think of it as a statewide gerrymander).

It’s why they never stop making it harder for the coalition that comprises the majority to vote…constantly chipping away at the majority’s numerical advantage with methods and tactics that target the voters in that majority. (eg., purging, new voter ID laws, banning drop boxes once Black voters began to use them disproportionately, etc.).

And it’s why their ads always are the same: over the top fear-mongering. Those ads’ central purpose is not to persuade, it’s to enrage their base to show up in numbers far greater than their actual percentage of the electorate.

And what’s also NOT breaking news? That these tactics have worked for them again and again, even as their core priorities remain unpopular.

All of this is playing out right now, in this Issue 1 special election. In a way, Issue 1 is almost a perfect symbol of their overall strategy in politics, across the nation:

First, their view is unpopular. Once again, they are in the minority. Of course, they expect to be there.

Two, by scheduling an election in August, they hope the majority of Ohioans who oppose them won’t show up. Ohio’s new voter ID law, the strictest in the nation, will also cut some voters out of the majority they fear as well.

Three, if you watch your television set in Ohio these days, you’ll see ludicrous, fear-mongering ads that have nothing to do with Issue 1, but which are meant to fire up their base to show up in a low-turnout race. Mailers and social media messages you won’t see will be doing this even more intensely. (I’ve seen some absolutely outrageous messaging in recent days.)

And together, all of this is to give themselves an artificial majority in a low-turnout election, so they can lock in a new voting rule that empowers their minority to block Ohio’s majority forever more. It’s a mad-dash end-run to stop a majority they fear over the long haul.

And it’s in this context that we should view these polls. They are pretty much where they always are on the right wing agenda. And their tactics are pretty much the same too. And those tactics have worked time again to overcome the reality (and those polls) that their views remain deeply unpopular.

So….don’t let it happen this time.

Bottom line: this will come down to whether the strong majority that sees Issue 1 for what it is shows up between now and 7:30 p.m. on August 8.

They are stoking their supporters to show up—we must do the same!

Do everything you can in these final days to be sure people vote early or on August 8.

Here’s how you can help reach voters:

1. Do a shift, or two, or three. on the phones, at the doors:

2. Fire off postcards — still a little time left:

3. Help us — there are 10,000s of absentee ballots that are yet to be returned from people we are almost sure will vote No. Help us reach those voters (through targeted messaging), so they return those ballots, on time, here:

Thank you.

Do all you can. Democracy itself is at stake.