Because I clearly can't wait for the next ep to come out, I had some spare time last night, and I'm a fruit loop, I decided to do some amateur sleuthing.
Where to start? I'm a Brit so I love to talk about the weather! I looked into the historical sunrise and weather data for some suitable airports, those with runways over 8000ft that were in, near or around the end of the corridor (see sources). I think you're set on Baikonur Cosmodrome, but I wanted to find out for myself what would be the shortest route (fuel consumption), closest to the last ping on the 7th arc, landing conditions etc. Also, I was wondering if their air traffic control was up because they were expecting flights at that time anyway. I ignored Hazret-Sultan International Airport as it's a new airport.
Apologies if I've got anything wrong, I'm not an expert researcher and I might not be able to read my notes properly.
Sources:
Airports within the area of the last image on JeffWise.net, Episode 13 etc, posted 14th December 2023.
Weather is from WorldWeatherOnline, approximate landing time within 3 hour weather forecast, 3-6am, 8th March 2014.
Airport arrivals during the night assuming ATC up, Flightradar24, from current data so might be wrong for 2014.
Runway lengths checked but not detailed below, internet or Wikipedia.
Assumption of landing near or after last ping at UTC 8:19, Kazakhstan 05:19, Kyrgyzstan 06:19 - honestly, if that's the only thing that's wrong here, I don't mind.
Kyzylorda - Sunrise 07:04 -18degC Clear NE 17km/h, ATC No
Baikonur Yubileyny and/or Krayniy (Extreme) - Sun rise 07:13 -20degC Cloudy E19km/h (furthest away so would it have reached there on a fuelless glide?), ATC unknown
Manas - ignored as US base until June 2014, although...
as you mentioned, Kant Air Base to the East (Kyrgyzstan UTC +6). Sun rise 07:26, -6degC, Rain/Snow 11km/h NW, ATC unknown. It's a very interesting route given it's proximity to a US base, which was possibly quieter as it was winding down to hand back to Kyrgyzstan and not looking out for MH370. It seems to be the shortest route that is closest to the corridor and 7th arc ping, and earlier sun rise. I would expect it could be ignored if it hugged the mountains on an Easterly turn after Taraz. What an Eff You that would be to the US/East if they snuck past them! It could also be a close call at about 26km/16miles due South. If they were to stay high, and made an extremely quick descent - Sarajevo Approach - to land at Kant, maybe. I don't know what I'm talking about really, but I think that fits with some of the data suggesting a pilot was controlling things at the end. All flight scenarios would have the landing in the dark, possibly a little bit of light in the East for Kant, weather conditions range from normal to fruity (with the extreme low temps).
But, there were mostly Chinese people on board so I don't get how this is having a go at the East.
I'm not as intelligent as a lot of people who research this and I'm not sold on any theory, my mind is as open as it can be. Look, there goes a tumbleweed. It's in the shape of a question mark.
Because I clearly can't wait for the next ep to come out, I had some spare time last night, and I'm a fruit loop, I decided to do some amateur sleuthing.
Where to start? I'm a Brit so I love to talk about the weather! I looked into the historical sunrise and weather data for some suitable airports, those with runways over 8000ft that were in, near or around the end of the corridor (see sources). I think you're set on Baikonur Cosmodrome, but I wanted to find out for myself what would be the shortest route (fuel consumption), closest to the last ping on the 7th arc, landing conditions etc. Also, I was wondering if their air traffic control was up because they were expecting flights at that time anyway. I ignored Hazret-Sultan International Airport as it's a new airport.
Apologies if I've got anything wrong, I'm not an expert researcher and I might not be able to read my notes properly.
Sources:
Airports within the area of the last image on JeffWise.net, Episode 13 etc, posted 14th December 2023.
Weather is from WorldWeatherOnline, approximate landing time within 3 hour weather forecast, 3-6am, 8th March 2014.
Airport arrivals during the night assuming ATC up, Flightradar24, from current data so might be wrong for 2014.
Runway lengths checked but not detailed below, internet or Wikipedia.
Assumption of landing near or after last ping at UTC 8:19, Kazakhstan 05:19, Kyrgyzstan 06:19 - honestly, if that's the only thing that's wrong here, I don't mind.
Kazakhstan UTC +5
Taraz - Sunrise 06:39 -2degC Snow NNW12km/h, ATC Yes
Shymkent - Sunrise 06:46 3degC Rain NW13km/h, ATC Yes
Kyzylorda - Sunrise 07:04 -18degC Clear NE 17km/h, ATC No
Baikonur Yubileyny and/or Krayniy (Extreme) - Sun rise 07:13 -20degC Cloudy E19km/h (furthest away so would it have reached there on a fuelless glide?), ATC unknown
Manas - ignored as US base until June 2014, although...
as you mentioned, Kant Air Base to the East (Kyrgyzstan UTC +6). Sun rise 07:26, -6degC, Rain/Snow 11km/h NW, ATC unknown. It's a very interesting route given it's proximity to a US base, which was possibly quieter as it was winding down to hand back to Kyrgyzstan and not looking out for MH370. It seems to be the shortest route that is closest to the corridor and 7th arc ping, and earlier sun rise. I would expect it could be ignored if it hugged the mountains on an Easterly turn after Taraz. What an Eff You that would be to the US/East if they snuck past them! It could also be a close call at about 26km/16miles due South. If they were to stay high, and made an extremely quick descent - Sarajevo Approach - to land at Kant, maybe. I don't know what I'm talking about really, but I think that fits with some of the data suggesting a pilot was controlling things at the end. All flight scenarios would have the landing in the dark, possibly a little bit of light in the East for Kant, weather conditions range from normal to fruity (with the extreme low temps).
But, there were mostly Chinese people on board so I don't get how this is having a go at the East.
I'm not as intelligent as a lot of people who research this and I'm not sold on any theory, my mind is as open as it can be. Look, there goes a tumbleweed. It's in the shape of a question mark.
Thanks for reading if you got this far.