In the first half-dozen editions of our newsletter, I've set the stage for a conversation crucial to our times—the seismic shift businesses and individuals are experiencing as we navigate towards the future of work. On my website, I've outlined a strategic vision central to this mission, focusing on key elements crucial in an era where technology redefines the value of human skills and experience. These pillars – Digital Literacy, Adaptability, Lifelong Learning, Growth Motivation and Mindset, Emotional Intelligence, AI-Human Fusion, and Change Management – are essential in this transformative journey.
My approach to creating digital courses, newsletters, books, and live broadcasts is grounded in a commitment to scientific rigor, objectivity, and logical reasoning. Simultaneously, I strive to maintain emotional intelligence, realism, creativity, and innovation. It's imperative for me to steer clear of marketing gimmicks that exploit fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). My goal is to provide a sanctuary from conspiracy theories, political biases, and alarmist narratives.
In this light, my research on AI unearths a significant transition across various industries and job functions. It's a narrative not of impending doom, but of opportunity, evolution, and innovation. The journey ahead is fascinating and filled with potential – and I am here to guide, inform, and support you through every step of this exciting transition.
In these nascent stages of the AI era, we are hearing a chorus of voices echoing the sentiment that technology is a job creator, alleviating any fears about job security. A prime example of this is the World Economic Forum (WEF), a prominent organisation bridging public and private sectors, which in 2019 published a paper titled “Why the Fourth Industrial Revolution could spell more jobs – not fewer.” While there's merit in this optimism, as pointed out by my academic peer, Jayant Menon, the journey from technological disruption to new job creation is seldom a direct path.
History has shown us that the transition from obsolete roles to emerging ones isn't always smooth or immediate, especially within the same company or industry. The reality is more nuanced and complex. Each wave of innovation brings its own set of challenges and opportunities, and it is critical to understand and navigate these nuances. The transition we are witnessing isn't just about job replacement; it's about transformation—a shift in the very nature of work, skills, and employment landscapes. My objective is to delve deeper into these transitions, offering insights and guidance to navigate the evolving world of work in the age of AI.
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Replaced by Technology?
The onset of the first Industrial Revolution in the late 18th century marked a seismic shift in manufacturing, with inventions like the spinning jenny and steam engine revolutionising production in Britain. This transformation soon spread across Europe and America, drastically altering the rural landscape as people flocked to cities in search of factory jobs. This shift was not a simple, one-to-one transition from an agrarian lifestyle to urban factory work. It involved real people and families who had to uproot their lives, adapt to new realities, and often endure hardships to survive in an industrialised world.
Fast forward to today, and we are on the brink of another monumental shift with the AI Revolution. The likelihood and intensity of disruption in our densely populated, technologically advanced society is arguably greater than in any previous industrial revolution. As technology forges ahead, creating efficiencies and reducing costs, the flip side is the loss of livelihoods and entire industries. Families and individuals are again facing the need to reskill and adapt amidst significant upheaval and change.
The third industrial revolution brought automation to the manufacturing sector, primarily impacting physical labour jobs. Now, in the era of AI, we're poised to see an automation wave that extends far beyond the factory floor, affecting the knowledge worker class and numerous other familiar roles. Like the automotive revolution that rendered the horse and buggy obsolete, we are likely to witness the decline, if not disappearance, of many industries over the next decade. While these changes will ultimately propel humanity forward, they will also bring job losses and significant transitional challenges.
Five years ago, before the advent of COVID-19 and the introduction of ChatGPT, the average person's encounter with AI was primarily through ecommerce, Netflix, social media, and navigation apps—aspects of daily life often taken for granted. Then came ChatGPT, presenting the general public with a tangible example of AI's potential to transform our world. This marked a significant turning point in the public's understanding of AI's impact on business, government, and academia, reshaping perceptions and expectations in ways we're still beginning to comprehend.
The USA: Occupations With Exposure to AI
First, let’s examine a July 2023 Pew Research Center study “Which U.S. Workers Are More Exposed to AI on Their Jobs? about the situation in the USA. I am going to share several graphics, then discuss them. If this is the first time you are seeing this data it may be unsettling. Psychologically, it is normal to react with denial and rationalising. However, once you do your own research, you will undestand why I am focusing on leading the way to equip people with the tools needed to begin the process of transition.
First, let’s take a high level look at the American situation from the Pew Research Center study.
Now, let’s drill down to groups of 20 occupations with three levels of exposure as shared by Pew.
Analysing the Pew Research Center data, it's evident that sectors involving knowledge work and computer science are increasingly vulnerable to AI-driven disruption. In contrast, roles traditionally labeled as “unskilled labour” and trades appear less susceptible to immediate AI integration. Interestingly, there's a prevailing optimism in the USA about AI's potential to augment rather than replace human capabilities.
In societies where central planning and economic engineering play a significant role, such as in certain European nations, there's a heightened awareness of the impending changes wrought by AI. Academia globally is buzzing with extensive research on AI's societal impacts, yet this discourse seems to be in its emerging stages in the public sphere.
While the USA is adept at shaping its economic and social narratives, it appears that many countries are still strategising for the impending AI-induced transition. In this context, the European Union has been proactive, implementing legislation to ethically govern AI development, arguably outpacing both the USA and the UK in recognising and preparing for the economic implications of AI. This foresight reflects a growing understanding that the path ahead requires careful navigation, balancing technological advancement with ethical considerations and societal well-being.
The following data is interesting. Those employed in information and technology see AI as helping them more than harming them in the future. This may be because these occupations are always upskilling, or they simply have a blind spot at this stage.
How AI Has Radically Changed Over the Past 5 Years
Before we look at The United Kingdom (UK), to demonstrate the gamechanging impacts of Chat GPT and other large language models, check out this 2018 forecast by consulting giant Price Waterhouse Cooper. The focus just five years ago was on self driving cars and transportation disruption. The consultants like PWC were not yet understanding the disruption large language models (already in existence then) would have in the near future. Welcome to the world of GPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer) - a technological marvel transforming the landscape of artificial intelligence and its application in business.
What I find interesting in the PWC forecast from five years ago is the professional; human health; education; and finance and insurance industries were viewed as low risk. Now, just five years later, large language models and deep tech pose a serious threat to all in these roles.
The UK: Occupations With Exposure to AI
Just four weeks ago at the time of this writing, the UK Department for Education released its report, “The impact of AI on UK jobs and training.” Here is what government and academia are preparing for.
The occupations most exposed to AI include professional and office occupations, particularly those associated with clerical work, finance, law, and business management roles. This includes management consultants and business analysts, accountants, and psychologists. This compares to the occupations least exposed to AI, which include sport professionals, roofers and steel erectors, and what we traditionally view as “trades.” While tradesmen may breathe a sigh of relief for now, it is expected that robotics and automation will eventually impact the trades as mentioned in the UK report.
I Talk to AIs
Kevin Baker: In our latest "Ethics and Algorithms" issue, I've delved into the transformative impact of AI on the workforce, highlighting crucial studies from the Pew Research Center and the UK Department for Education. These reports paint a vivid picture of how AI is reshaping job landscapes. What are your thoughts on this, GPT-4?
GPT-4: Kevin, these reports indeed offer insightful perspectives on the evolving job market. The Pew Research Center's study underscores the varying degrees of AI exposure across different occupations in the USA. This indicates a significant shift in the workforce, where AI integration is becoming increasingly prevalent. It's fascinating yet challenging, as it signals both opportunities and the need for adaptation.
Kevin Baker: Absolutely, GPT-4. The UK report echoes similar sentiments, noting the high exposure of professional and office occupations to AI, including roles in finance, law, and business management. This marks a departure from the earlier perception that these fields were relatively safe from automation.
GPT-4: That's correct, Kevin. The shift in focus from primarily manual jobs to more cognitive roles underlines the advanced capabilities of AI. It's not just about automating tasks anymore; it's about enhancing or even replacing complex decision-making processes. This evolution demands a rethinking of skill sets and education to prepare for a future where AI plays a central role.
Kevin Baker: And speaking of preparation, both reports highlight the need for human adaptability and lifelong learning. How do you see these qualities playing a role in this transition?
GPT-4: Adaptability and lifelong learning are key. As AI continues to evolve, the skill sets required in the workforce will also change. Individuals and organisations must be prepared to continually learn and adapt to new technologies. This means not only technical skills but also developing a deeper understanding of AI ethics, decision-making, and creative problem-solving.
Kevin Baker: Right, and that's where my mission aligns—equipping people with the tools needed for this transition. It's not just about understanding AI but also about integrating it ethically and effectively into our work and lives.
GPT-4: Precisely, Kevin. Your focus on digital literacy, emotional intelligence, and AI-human fusion is essential in navigating this transition. It's about harnessing the potential of AI while maintaining the human elements that define our creativity, empathy, and ethical judgment.
Kevin Baker: Thanks, GPT-4. As we head into the new year, it's clear that the journey with AI is both challenging and exciting. I'm looking forward to continuing to explore these themes and support our readers through this transformative era.
Where do we go from here?
AI everywhere. AI will move into all industries, from finance, to education, to healthcare. AI will increase productivity and enable new opportunities.
Deeper insights. New technologies will sense, analyze, and understand things never before possible.
Engagement reimagined. New forms of human-machine interaction and emerging technologies, such as conversational bots, will transform how humans engage with each other and with machines.
Personalisation . Machine interactions will be personalised for you, with new levels of detail and scale.
Instrumented planet. Billions of sensors generating exabytes of data will open new possibilities for improving Earth’s safety, sustainability, and security.
What’s beyond these wonders? Humans, devices, and robots might exist as a collective “digital brain” that anticipates human needs, makes predictions, and provides solutions. Farther in the future, we might trust the digital brain to do things on our behalf across a broad spectrum of endeavours!
To Infinity and Beyond 🚀 I look forward to talking to you in your inbox next time!
Kevin Baker
Last Things
Copyright 2023 by Kevin Baker Consulting
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