The Underappreciated Art of Assumption
Much maligned, assumptions are actually a bedrock of human existence
If you assume, you make an ass out of u and me, or so the old saying goes. Given that seemingly everyone hates assumptions, why do people keep making them? The answer is that assumptions are a critical tool that nobody can live without.
When you board an airplane, how do you know that the captain is sober? How do you know that the plane has been maintained properly? You don’t. You just assume that regulations were followed and that it’s safe. That’s a good assumption! It’s extremely likely to be true and the alternative would be to lose the ability to fly.
When you hear footsteps coming up the stairs in your house, how do you know that it’s not an intruder? You don’t. You just assume that it’s your spouse. That’s a good assumption! The alternative would be to live in a constant state of anxiety.
To function, we rely on our interpretations of past experience and our understanding of the world. We could never get through a day of our lives if we didn’t make assumptions every minute. So, why are assumptions so hated?
While correct assumptions allow us to thrive, incorrect assumptions are what get us into trouble. The solution is to be aware of your assumptions and the foundation that they are built on. Make assumptions deliberately, not accidentally. Think about what has to be true for your assumption to be incorrect. Ask yourself if the benefits of making the assumption outweigh the chance that the assumption will be wrong.
Assumption is a tool and like any tool, when used correctly it is indispensable, but when used incorrectly, danger abounds. Life without a car seems nearly unimaginable for millions of people around the world, yet car crashes kill thousands of people. Like cars, assumptions are essential and only get dangerous if the driver gets too fast and loose.
Let’s start celebrating assumptions instead of treating them as our most hated enemy.
So by assuming, are you making an ass? Yes, but it’s a mighty fine ass and life would be pretty awful without a nice ass to sit on.
I find solid wisdom in the saying, "assumptions are the mother of all fuck-ups." I take it to mean that when you find out you've made a strategic error, you can usually look back and see a faulty assumption underneath it. The saying doesn't imply we shouldn't make assumptions, it implies we should make a routine habit of revisiting our starting assumptions in light of emerging evidence - hopefully before things turn into full-blown fuck-ups. If you smell booze on the captain's breath and the FAA just fined the airline for poor maintenance practices then it might be good to revisit the generally sensible starting assumption that flying is extremely safe. Making assumptions isn't what gets us into trouble - it's *clinging* to our assumptions that gets us in trouble.