US to pivot to the East?
Will the US pivot towards China, whilst leaving the Europeans to clean up the mess in Ukraine and Gaza?
Let’s see what 2024 has brought us so far with regards to the Russia-Ukraine conflict;
US ‘aid’ to Ukraine continues to be ‘stuck’ in the US Congress.
Continued chatter about confiscating Russia’s $300 billion in Foreign Exchange (“ForEx”) reserves in order to pay for NATO ‘aid’ to Ukraine
Russia making slow but continued progress near Avdeevka and slowly gaining more territory
Bellicose language from French president Emmanuel Macron and Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski about sending NATO ground troops to Ukraine
Escalatory language from Ursula von der Leyen while visiting Kiev
German warmongering generals discussing how to blow up the Crimean Kerch Bridge and Russian ammunition depots with German Taurus cruise missiles
Victoria Nuland, an anti-Russia hardliner, resigning/retiring from her post as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs
So in a nutshell, with the uncertainty about US financial aid and the replacement of Russia Hawk Victoria Nuland by China Hawk John Bass, the US is distancing themselves from the Ukrainian ‘project’ while at the same time the Europeans seem to become more involved with weapon deliveries and chatter about ‘boots on the ground.’
When we zoom out and look at US politics and the upcoming US Presidential Elections, I’m wondering if we can see a similar pattern.
Under Obama we saw a strong escalation of tensions between Ukraine and Russia with the Maidan Coup in 2014, the resulting annexation of Crimea by Russia and the subsequent Western economic sanctions against Russia.
During the (“Russian election interference”) Trump Administration from January 2017 until January 2021 we saw a relative thaw (at least openly) between the West and Russia and the focus was primarily on China, while in the background Ukraine was quietly armed to the teeth in preparation for the upcoming proxy war against Russia.
Trump started an ill-fated trade war with China under the motto “trade wars are good and easy to win,” even gaslighting the American consumers that ‘China is paying for the tariffs.’
During the so-called “pandemic” Trump consistently referred to Sars-CoV 2 as the “China virus.”
Trump proudly boasted on X, formerly Twitter, that his Administration was doing more than Obama’s Administration when it came to delivering weapons to Ukraine, writing “I also allowed Ukraine to purchase Javelin anti-tank missiles. My Administration has done far more than the previous Administration.”
It was the Trump Administration that unilaterally withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia which was signed in 1987 by Ronald Reagan and Michael Gorbachev.
Instead of “bringing the troops home” and “ending NATO,” it was the Trump Administration that moved US troops stationed in Germany closer to Ukraine and Russia by transferring them to Poland which, together with Romania, is the key pilar of supporting the logistical and training aspects of the NATO operation in Ukraine.
Then under the (“China Joe”) Biden Administration, we saw yet another reversal: Russia was provoked into launching the Special military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine, whilst the bad relationship with China (which deteriorated under Trump) was more or less frozen.
So while it’s absolutely true that “Trump didn’t start any wars,” it’s definitely worth asking the question: to what extent did Trump help prepare the foundation for today’s war in Ukraine.
Furthermore, will we see a repeat of this if Trump (or a similar China Hawk candidate) wins the US election in 2024 and becomes President again? Will attention again flip from Ukraine/Russia towards China?
I fear and suspect that during the next US presidential period (January 2025-2029) we will see a similar pivot as we saw after the Obama Administration during the Trump presidency between 2017 and 2021;
the economic and military chess pieces near China will be moved towards escalating tensions with regard to Chinese trade and Taiwan
at the same time the US involvement in the Ukraine conflict is put on the back burner by delegating responsibility to NATO’s EU vassal states. Without strong American leadership, the internally divided EU will guarantee that the Ukrainian conflict will freeze which gives Ukraine some relative calm and much needed time to rearm and rebuild their army to prepare for the next round of escalation.
Another big question if the above turns out to be correct: how will Russia respond?
Will Russia be fooled again (as they were with the Minsk Agreements as admitted by François Hollande, Angela Merkel and Petro Poroshenko) and slow down the pace of the SMO in Ukraine, or will they increase the pace of the SMO and try to conquer as much territory as possible east of the Dnipro River plus perhaps Odessa?
US global hegemony is a combination of 1) whac-a-mole and 2) a shell game…
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