The United States has an election next year which means squeaky bum time for geopolitics. The worry among both the Western world and China is that Trump will come back to power. To make matters worse, the current sitting President of America is clearly not well in the head.
It is not difficult to see Biden’s age is catching up with him as he certainly does not have much left in the cognitive tank. Biden could easily kick the bucket before the election and if not, he won’t have much left in him the far side. This has made those around him who are attempting to steady the ship at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions extremely nervous.
Last week President Xi travelled to the United States for the first time in 6 years for bilateral talks with his American opposite number.
The geopolitical squeaky bum time could not be personified better than the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken. Kicking off the negotiations while sitting across the table from each other, Biden addresses Xi reading from a script while Blinken fixates his gaze absolutely on his senile President, praying for no brain farts or slip of the tongue. Fortunately, Biden’s brain didn’t wander on this occasion. Anthony Blinken, or as I now prefer to call him, no-blink-Blinken, escaped an embarrassing episode here.
However, when wrapping up the historical round of negotiations between the two great powers, the inevitable happened when President Biden went off-the-cuff and called President Xi a “dictator”. Anthony Blinken, visibly recoils in his chair with a disapproving frown and shake of the head witnessing old Joe potentially destroying all the high-stakes geopolitical discussions with a slip of the tongue. Blinken, awkwardly shifting in his seat (squeaky bum) has the face of a parent listening to their child announce something to the neighbours-next-door that should not be uttered outside the four walls of the family home.
Besides from China’s foreign ministry declaring the comment “wrong and irresponsible”, it was left at that. It’s not so long ago China would have dived head-first into some sabre-rattling by blowing up a load of rockets around Taiwan in response to such a remark.
Following this, I’m not sure which is my favourite new nickname for the US Secretary of State; no-blink-Blinken or squeaky-bum-Blinken?
So why the sudden twitchiness in the White House and why the sudden rapprochement with China?
Recent polling data shows if the election was to be held today, Trump would likely win and Biden would be wheeled out of the White House to the nearest old folks home. The risks Trump poses to both domestic American society and the wider geopolitical spectrum are real.
Europe should be nervous of Trump’s return leading to a complete withdrawal of US support for Ukraine and also potential a withdrawal from NATO. Putin is licking his lips at the idea of this. America abandoning an underprepared Europe to face off against the Russian Bear is a scary thought. A thought I’m sure many in the leadership of Ukraine, Moldova and the Baltic states are losing sleep over.
The leadership in China are in the same boat of frayed nerves over a Trump return. Besides from the economic risks at play here from Trump resuming his campaign of plastering tariffs wherever he can, there are geopolitical risks that serve an existential threat.
Trump has been quite vocal about his lack of interest in Europe’s affairs on this side of the Atlantic. If the same is repeated towards America’s allies on the far side of the Pacific towards Taiwan, Japan, South Korea or Philippines, these countries could look to take matters of defence into their own hands. This means nukes. More nuclear bombs and nuclear armed states though proliferation is the last thing humanity needs.
President Xi understands this as well as anyone else. Xi views the risk of the Japanese or South Koreans developing their own nuclear arsenal that can be launched from within a stone’s throw as a redline. The importance of maintaining the status quo of nuclear armaments has rocketed up Xi’s list of priorities. Trump’s unpredictably poses as a risk towards upending the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the foot being pressed on the accelerator of a renewed global arms race.
With Biden’s polls falling off a cliff edge, the Democrats need to make progress on the main ticket items fast to boost their position in the hopes of maintaining power. With the inflation / fentanyl crisis at home and the Ukraine / Gaza crisis abroad, the White House has a daunting amount of work cut out for them.
Biden’s fragility also appears to be falling off a cliff so an appropriate successor needs to be found and developed fast. Enter stage left, Governor of California - Gavin Newsom.
Newsom looks to be the Heir Apparent of old Joe. The alternative, Vice President Harris is polling at terrible numbers with the public and there doesn’t seem to be much of a fondness for her within the administration.
The recent extraordinary visit by Newsom to China embodied this view. In a quite unusual meeting between the US Governor and China’s President, Governor Newsom was treated as an equal by Xi. Newsom stated after his meetings that a “divorce between the US and China is not an option”.
This sudden embrace of The White House towards China is further shown through the brain-mushing app TikTok. From trying to ban the app a few months ago, it is now being reported that the Biden team are considering a 180 by launching onto the Tiktok platform to reach younger voters for the upcoming Presidential Campaign.
With divorce off the table, strap in for some fast-tracked geopolitical marriage counselling.
The fentanyl crisis America has effected every congressional district in America. The killer drug’s proliferation is high in the minds of voters who desperately seek a solution. Any attempt to combat the issue will be viewed positively at the polls. The rampant drugs are largely manufactured in China and flow onto American streets through the cartels in Mexico. It is debatable whether results will be yielded, but China has agreed to go after the chemical companies at home that produce the stuff. In return, the US agreed to lift sanctions on the Chinese Police Institute.. who to remind everyone, is the same institution that targeted China’s ethnic Uyghur minority. It’s not the first time a minority has been thrown under the bus in return for a few extra votes at the ballot, and unfortunately it won’t be the last.
Israel is another crisis that is hurting the political and financial wallet of the US. As I predicted in my recent article on the Gaza crisis, the war thankfully has not spread or developed into a wider conflict. It still dominates headlines and stokes fears across the Western world. As I described, the continued presence of two US naval supercarrier groups off the coast of Israel is no small factor in helping to contain this conflict.
Trump and new runner Kennedy, are campaigning through beating the political drum of being the man that will end the “forever wars” the US is involved in. A US pullback from Israel or Ukraine would exponentially complicate the security and decision-making calculus of many nations. In other words; geopolitical squeaky bum time.
China has recently been messing around with the Iranians in the geopolitical bed through recent improved foreign relations and support. This needs to be checked. Through Iran there is support of the powerful paramilitary group Hezbollah (or the Hezbollox as I prefer to call them) which are linked to Hamas. Constructive support from China here will lead to more hostages successfully being saved from Gaza and less bloodshed.
China’s appetite for intervention here is coupled with an opportunity for the Chinese to be viewed as peace brokers in an increasingly fractured world. Attempting to tidy up its geopolitical image, earlier this month Arab ministers were invited to Beijing to be cute and hold hands to denounce the fighting in Gaza. Photo ops like these can then be peddled to bolster the Chinese image.
The Ukraine war has become extremely expensive, both financially and politically. As this year has shown, Ukraine’s heavily touted 2023 counteroffensive fell flat on its face. Without progress, people and the media get bored. On top of this, Ukrainian President Zelensky should have announced elections by now, but hasn’t. This complicates further advances of capital and support to a state that is meant to be joining the free, democratic Western world. Also, Zelensky continues to maintain a hardline on refusing to negotiate with Putin. Holding this view while not holding elections means there is no room for a successor to enter the fray. Without a direct dialogue between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia, it’s difficult to see how the war can be brought to conclusion through the negotiation of a deal.
On Ukraine, the US need China to taper down their support for Russia. This means pulling back diplomatically from supporting Russia and also winding down their provisioning of non-lethal and lethal aid to the Russian cause.
This is a big ask, especially considering the “no limits partnership” between President Xi and Putin, however there is always an angle.
In my article back in June, “President Xi is pinged”, I outlined three considerable holes in the Chinese ship that will cause it to sink:
The economy
Resources
President Xi Jinping himself
No.3 on the list is ever-present so not much can be done there until the big man follows Biden’s soon-to-come fate. However, there can be measures taken to address no.1 and 2.
The Chinese economy is not in good shape. It’s bloated property sector and collapsing foreign direct investment means for a worrying situation. China rose to power through an export-led economy. Many nations are “reshoring” capital and supply chains away from China with makes for a lot of pain in the Chinese state.
The Chinese “Belt and Road Initiative” is also flagging. The idea was that pouring capital into emerging markets by building huge infrastructure would enable these countries to develop and hence become a cash cow.
Between Covid, wars, inflation, a strengthened US dollar and the global slowdown, the promised returns on foreign investments for China is failing to come to fruition as many poor countries struggle to repayment their loans back to China.
This drought has put immense pressure on the books for China. The solution? Access to bigger and better markets. Quantity and quality.
Emerging markets can’t provide the money China needs. The Chinese need to revert back to the plan that made them wealthy in the first place – selling into European and American markets.
This is where an old face steps back onto the geopolitical stage - the alleged pig-shagger, David Cameron.
The former British Prime Minister has been away from the spotlight since the Brits voted out of the EU. He has suddenly been propelled back onto the geopolitical stage with his appointment as the UK Foreign Secretary. This is a hugely significant turn of events as Cameron is widely known for his stance as “China-friendly”.
First, he has to convince the rest of the Europeans to forgive him over blowing the Brexit referendum, which I’m sure will be fine.. Europeans aren’t ones to be known to hold grudges or anything. Then, he has to smooth over bilateral relations between Europeans and China and allow China market access.
This is a big win for President Xi. In the trade of access to EU + US markets for assistance on Ukraine + Israel, this a positive step as Cameron is one of few people qualified for the job.
The appointment of Cameron establishes two significant facts; the US remains highly capable of influencing domestic politics abroad and Putin & Xi’s “no limits friendship” looks to be on the rocks.
Only last month, President Xi told the Russian President the “political mutual trust” between their countries was “continuously deepening” as the two men met for bilateral talks in Beijing. It is now becoming apparent that Xi values access to established markets to sell Chinese goods more than a counterproductive fling with a failing dictator.
Cameron may be able to help with addressing the economic woes of China, however China still lacks resources.
Years ago, I read of an idea referred to as “The Chinese Crawl”. I cannot find the reference online, but the evidence is becoming more apparent. Putin might prefer rapid, aggressive moves for territorial gains. However the Chinese offer a more clandestine approach.
A creeping incursion, through years of migration of its people into local communities of Russia’s Far East. This fungus like infection into the Russian lands may be slow, but it is difficult to stop or reverse. The organized crime conglomerates of the Chinese Triads are known to have sunk their fangs into most of this territory. This rules out many “off the book” approaches the Russians may favour in reversing these population movements as the local muscle is Chinese affiliated.
The Far East of Russia around Siberia is known for its resources. This region is full of resources and empty of people, while China stands as the opposite. Many Chinese refer to the area as their “northern resource territory” and some Russian observers stating Eastern Siberia has become a “raw materials pantry” for China. Everything from timber to oil and gas, Siberia is a resource rich region. Chinese workers litter the area. As it currently stands, not a single pulp mill in the region is currently operated by Russians, the Chinese are in full operational control.
A border is a bit like a marriage, it only exists if those on both sides believe in it. Siberia is 3,500km away from Moscow, while it is about 2,500km to Beijing. Putin has disproportionately preyed upon the indigenous people of Siberia for cannon fodder for his war in Ukraine. In a striking turn of events, the local Siberian people have created a “Siberian Battalion” to travel to Ukraine to fight against Russia.
The Chinese Crawl began years ago, but these recent events may turn that crawl into a leisurely walk.
This is likely a major element of the deal with the US. America will turn a blind eye to the Chinese Crawl / invasion into Russia as long as China plays ball with helping towards America’s political issues.
None of this is to say America and China are now bestfriends. It is in both parties interests to park their differences for the time being while they sort out other issues. This then clears the distractions for both to get back to resuming their great power struggle.