The region of the 5 countries that make up the “Stans” in Central Asia were once a region at the heart of the ancient Silk Road. For 1,500 years, the Stans facilitated the transfer of economic, political, cultural and religious ideas and goods between Eastern and Western worlds. The course of geopolitical history has been dictated by this region with wars fought over it featuring names such as Alexander the Great, Tamerlane and Genghis Khan. Once a region of untold riches, it is now a backwater with a soon-to-be-severe lack of water.
This entire region was firmly under the control of the Soviet Empire in its heyday. In my previous two-parter on Russia, “The Russian Bear's Bald Spot”, I describe in detail the paranoia the Russian state has around securing access points to its country. This wariness has molded the Russian geopolitical strategy for centuries, while the Stan region on its doorstep has always been central to this strategy. This large swath of land, right on the access point to Siberia, is a massive bald spot in the soft underbelly of the Russian Bear. Fearing a single, united force rising as a regional hegemon from the Stans, this is a thought that many Russian leaders have lost sleep over down the years.
The modern lines you see today on the map of the Stans are a rather recent development. Drawn by the Soviet ruler Stalin with great care and precision. Stalin scribbled his lines to ensure maximum fragility and local conflict in the event one would make an attempt at rising up to consolidate control over the region. By the Soviet’s own creation, they shot the starting pistol of this geopolitical contest. Not long after, by the Soviet’s own destruction, they accidently carved the winner’s name onto the Stan trophy; Uzbekistan.
Uzbekistan is one of only two countries in the world that are “doubly landlocked”, which means every country they border is also a landlocked country. Wee Liechtenstein in Europe is the other, to save you googling. This makes exporting expensive and geopolitics delicate, as exporting through a port cannot be avoided without a middle-man-country to facilitate by keeping their pockets heavy and relations healthy.
Despite this natural inconvenience, Uzbekistan has quite the robust and diverse economy, even being one of the few countries that managed to score positive GDP growth in 2020. At home, the Uzbeks are widely self-sufficient in natural gas, oil and grains. Bread to make toast and energy to make the toaster toast, what more does anyone need?
Ensuring your country is free from nefarious external influence also helps towards guaranteeing your sovereignty. With the Chinese just up the road from Uzbekistan, the proximity risk of influence was high. Thankfully for the Uzbeks, Mother Nature granted them the help of a huge mountain range and an adjoining desert on the far side for good measure, to keep a healthy distance between them and the Chinese. The current Chinese influence is kept in check by the Uzbeks with a limited amount of natural gas trading.
Uzbekistan’s current borders are broadly enclosed by two rivers. The top of the country is lined by the Syr Darya while the bottom is lined by the Amu Darya. While this is ideal for agriculture and defence, the overarching issue here is both rivers originate from the mountains to the east, in neighbouring Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. If these rivers were left to their own devices as Mother Nature intended, this region would have remained moist and fruitful. However, geopolitics has a dab-hand at sucking the moisture and fun out of life, quite literally.
While the Soviet Union was in its prime, to fuel its enormous requirement for resources, Egypt was their main provider of cotton. This was all well-n-good, until war broke out in 1973 with Egypt stuck in the middle of it. Despite being backed by the Soviets, the Egyptians got their arses handed to them in an embarrassing defeat against the Israelis. Following this, Egypt decided to moonwalk away from their relationship with the Soviets and switch sides to the US and the Western allies. After being geopolitically ghosted by the Egyptians and losing access to cotton resources, the Soviets decided to take matters into their own hands.
They embarked on a monumental project of building the 1,375km Karakum Canal to divert “some” of the Amu Darya river away from feeding the Aral Sea, into re-wetting the open desert in Turkmenistan to grow their own cotton.
The silly Soviets overlooked two crucial factors in this project; cotton is an extremely water intensive crop to grow, and the use of resources on Earth is a zero-sum game.
From the get-go, this colossal canal overdrew water from the main river system that flows through southern Uzbekistan. Immediately, the terminus in the Aral Sea began to suffer with water levels dropping as the water that should have arrived was pissed away in the desert trying to grow cotton.
As of today, it is estimated that 95% of the Aral Sea has evaporated away. Without this huge body of water in the desert to help cool and keep moisture in the region’s climate, the deserts are expanding fast. This chain reaction has led to further increased temperatures in the region pushing the source of the river water; the glaciers in the east in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to melt at an increasing rate. We are now a few years away from this crucial water source ceasing to reach the western regions of Central Asia.
Despite the Soviets rerouting and setting this region’s water resources on a disaster course, this is remarkably not the only fuck up they made in the region.
During the Cold War, the Soviets were sniffing around this part of the world up to no good. The area around the Aral Sea in western Uzbekistan was so isolated that the Soviets decided to build a secret biological weapons facility on an island in the middle of the sea. Vozrozhdeniya Island (which means “Rebirth Island” in English.. Call of Duty fans will know) was the island where the Aralsk-7 facility was built for producing and testing all sorts of nasty shit. Among manufacturing many variations of plagues, smallpox and nerve agents, the signature dish cooked up in the facility was anthrax. This stuff is so potent and dangerous that in theory, 1 gram could cause about 100 million deaths. How much did the Soviets produce in this secret facility in the Aral sea? Between 100 – 200 tonnes.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, the Russians skipped town and abandoned this island facility without a cleanup. Leaving behind an entire facility stacked full of biological weapons including many infected and diseased test-animals that were simply set loose. To this day, Russia refuses to pay to clean up the area claiming it is no longer part of Russia so they have no responsibility for it anymore. Uzbekistan refuses to clean it up also as they rightfully argue it was Russia’s doing.
While this squabbling continues, the abandoned facility is now the centerpiece of an ecological disaster. With 95% of the Aral Sea now evaporated away, the desert continues it’s inevitable consumption of this entire basin. The facility is now accessible by land meaning scavengers frequently journey over to rip out copper piping or whatever they can get their hands on to sell for cash. With the dry, infected seabed now unprotected to the elements, all the nasty chemicals and toxins are exposed to the dust storms that regularly rip through the area. Yep, fucking Anthrax Tornadoes.
The area contaminated is roughly six times the size of Ireland, about the same size of France. Towns in the area have cancer rates dramatically higher than elsewhere in the country. This parched and poisoned western half of Uzbekistan is a write-off that the Soviets can be thanked for.
Despite this, the Soviets had the opposite effect on the eastern side of Uzbekistan. This area is a gateway to Afghanistan as the two countries share a conveniently located border. In the 80’s, the Soviets went to war in Afghanistan. In doing so, Moscow invested heavily into building out the infrastructure such as roads and factories in Eastern Uzbekistan to support the Soviet army. While this side of Uzbekistan benefitted generously from the Soviets, the other Stans in Central Asia did not receive this investment as their geographical positioning meant they were irrelevant to the Soviet geopolitical goals.
The population density map of Uzbekistan tells this story, showing the majority of the population hugging the eastern side close to the water sources and proper infrastructure while distancing themselves away from the dry and infected western side.
This sets the scene for the upcoming geopolitical contest in the region. Experts reckon there will soon only be enough water for maybe half of the current region's population. From the dawn of man, wars have been fought over resources and this is no different. To understand the Geopolitical Tale of the Tape and why Uzbekistan stands as a seasoned heavy weight among malnourished featherweights, subscribe for part 2.
My geographical knowledge of Eurasia finally began to really expand when I started paying attention to "the stans." I think this is a helpful way to think of the region. Thanks for a good lesson on one of them!