As shown in Part 1, the Russian Bear is cursed with the geographical equivalent of a poisoned chalice. It is the largest country in the world, blessed with an abundance of natural resources from the largest proven reserves of natural gas, to diamonds and titanium. However, the land they sit on might be rich, it’s far from perfect. Due to the absence of natural defense barriers, the Russian people experienced generations of invasions and for lack of better alternatives, their leaders cultivated a sense of mistrust and aggression.
As of late, this aggression is localized towards the west, the weak point in the vast fortress that is Russia. This is undoubtedly an attempt by the Russian Bear to prevent the toupee from slipping from it’s western facing bald spot.
In Part 1, I discussed Crimea and why it is so important to Putin. Despite its strategic importance, its annexation in 2014 was met with meagre sanctions from the West. Putin effectively got away with it. And unfortunately, this wasn’t the first time he pulled such a stunt since coming to power in 2000.
On Russia’s southern border lies the Caucasus mountains. Georgia (the country, not the US State) is situated here, sharing a border with the big bully, Russia.
In 2003, a pro-Western government came to power in Georgia, which needless to say, pissed Putin off. The relationship between Putin and Georgia grew increasingly sour, and a few years later, in 2008, Putin launched a full-scale invasion. This lasted 12 days, during which he stole two regions known as Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
This stolen territory has a land mass similar in size to Galway, Clare and Limerick combined.
What repercussions did Putin face for such an illegal move? Other than the International Criminal Court issuing three arrest warrants just six months ago (June 2022) for three lads involved in the war - nothing. Putin got a taste for expansion, solidifying his southern border against Western sympathisers, all while the West let him away with it.
To recap the timeline of Putin’s fuckery;
2000 – he comes to power
2008 (8 years later) – he steals land from Georgia
2014 (6 years later) – he steals land from Ukraine
2022 (8 years later) – he attempts to steal everything else from Ukraine
By the beginning of 2022, the landmass annexed by Putin equated to the combined area of Leinster and Connacht. With these previous successes, it’s easy to imagine that there was a moment when Putin was sitting on his sparkling toilet, just recently scrubbed by his 800 quid golden toilet-brushes, where he considered the possibility of another land grab and concluded it would go off without a hitch. Third time’s the charm, as the saying goes.
When Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, its obvious he hadn’t planned for a long, drawn out conflict. Putin planned to topple the Ukrainian government in a couple of days, installing a pro-Russian government in the process. In doing so, he hoped to renew the glue that kept the Ukrainian toupee stuck on.
This was a colossal miscalculation. Crimea and the land from Georgia both have large pro-Russian populations and so there was little resistance when Russian forces invaded. Both of these invasions lasted only a matter of days and both resulted huge gains for Putin with little repercussions. Its no wonder Putin had a false sense of confidence in the Russian war machine and assumed that launching a wide-scale invasion in Ukraine would be similarly ‘successful’.
The no-repercussions route opted for by the West in both cases was not for a lack of caring but rather a carefully thought-out strategic decision to do nothing.
We must remind ourselves that Russia is a heavily nuclear-armed state, controlled by a man with a heightened ego and a feeling of immortality.
Before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine kicked off, Russia’s military was regarded as one of the most powerful in the world and he assumed that a ‘lesser’ country like Ukraine would never stand a chance against it. However, as shown over the last year, Russia’s faltering war machine certainly does not deserve to be regarded as a superpower military.
But let’s be very clear here – while Russia may not have a superpower military, Russia does have superpower weapons.
The fact that Putin has access to nuclear weapons is one that keeps many geopolitical advisers around the globe from getting a good night’s sleep.
This leads us to the dangerously sensitive geopolitical strategy of no escalation.
You have to view Putin like a young Mike Tyson. Before that is taken out of context, I want to be very clear that there is nothing comparable between these two figures other than one notoriously infamous event involving Mr. Tyson.
In 1997, the much-anticipated rematch between Tyson and Evander Holyfield was taking place in Las Vegas. Three rounds into the boxing fight, Tyson, who must have forgotten to eat his Weetabix that morning and was thinking like a Hungry Hippo, decided to bite off a chunk of Holyfield’s ear. It took the ref a few moments to recall the rulebook’s position on cannibalism. After a quick check, Tyson was disqualified and the fight was called off. This enraged Tyson. Tensions rapidly escalated and so police swarmed the ring.
Everyone in that building knew that Tyson was a dangerous force of nature (who, after seeing him fight, I would argue held nuclear power inside his gloves). Any escalation by the police here could be disastrous. The only safe option was to standby, calm the man down and hope for the best.
I feel this historic image accurately represents the situation that the world is facing since Putin rolled his tanks into Ukraine on 24 February and unleashed hell on its citizens. The police (i.e. Western governments) are armed with weapons of their own, but even reaching for their hip to use them could risk Tyson lashing out (i.e. Putin launching some nukes), so best not to make any sudden movements.
Putin has repeatedly threatened the world with a nuclear strike. If Russia followed through, the fear is that retaliatory nukes would be launched. This rapidly escalating situation would be a calamity. Everything we know would be at risk, including mankind’s time on Earth. Yep, pretty scary.
Since Ukraine was invaded, the appeals for the West to send weapons and support has been relentless. Despite many people, including Putin himself, thinking the West would not send anything, the West has responded with a significant level of assistance.
However, the West is walking a very fine line in doing so.
Providing Ukraine with too little support, could risk Ukraine being overrun by Russia. As the recap of Putin’s transgressions above shows – if Russia was to take that territory, it would likely be 6-8 years until Putin decides to make another move on some other bordering country to further secure the toupee on it’s western flank.
But providing Ukraine with too much support could risk Ukraine driving Russia back to restore the pre-2014 borders. This situation could see Ukraine regaining control of Crimea - Putin’s prized possession. As mentioned in Part 1, Putin views losing Crimea as an existential threat. It is in this situation that the Russian Bear may feel backed into a corner and resort to doing the unthinkable – launching nukes.
The strategy the West has adopted is finding the perilously delicate balance between the two scenarios. Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, this core strategy boils down to letting the conflict continue in a balanced state. In the meantime, the West will hope for Putin to run out of steam, while urging everyone to sit down at the negotiating table.
While Putin remains in the driver seat of Russia, the overshadowing threat of nuclear escalation will remain.
The actual translation of the word “Ukraine” is “borderland”. This geographical explanation for this sovereign territory is crude, but fitting. It will always remain the border between Europe and Russia, and as such, remain as the bald spot in the Russian Bear’s thick fur.
Happy Christmas lads - apologies this is a late one, was busy drinking and talking shite the last few days so you know yourself. Cheers!