I spend a lot of time trying to predict football games, so I figured I’d share my process and predictions. I put together and update grades for every single player on every team. That goes into my projected lines and win probabilities for each game. During the 2022-23 season, this model hit on 56.0% of picks midweek and 52.7% of picks at close. This season, it hit on 54.9% of picks midweek and 53.7% at close.
My process consists of grading every player on every team and updating those grades weekly. The grades are on a 1-10 scale ranging from “Unplayable”, someone like Clayton Tune for example (sorry Clayton), to “Generational”, which is a player like Patrick Mahomes or Justin Jefferson. Most players fall between a 4 and a 6 on the grading scale. The majority of the grade comes from looking at career PFF grades, season PFF grades, and weekly PFF grades to continue updating to reflect player performance. I use some subjectivity in my grades by factoring in any information on players coming from reading or listening to people who know ball. I also incorporate a little bit of film-based grading on players when I come across them while working games for PFF.
Once each player has a grade, they combine to create unit grades. I then weigh each positional unit to produce a grade for each offense and defense. I also factor in play-calling, which is very subjective and doesn’t have much weight, and an “X-Rating”. This X-Rating helps me more accurately grade an offense or defense by analyzing EPA/play, success rate, series conversion rates, unit PFF grades, and more. These unit grades and coaching grades are then translated into points to create projected spreads and win probabilities.
Let’s get into the football now.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
My model comes in a bit shorter than the ten point spread. Ten points is a lot in a game with just a 38.5 point total. Despite some of the minimal successes Mason Rudolph has experienced in his handful of starts, he is a poor quarterback against a solid defense in a hostile environment. Pittsburgh is going to have to run the ball, something they love to do, to shorten this game and try to grind out a win. Buffalo is 11th in success rate against the run and 24th in EPA/rush against. So they will give up explosives, but it’s harder to find the down-to-down success that Pittsburgh is going to need to burn clock and keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands.
Buffalo should be able to put up points. There could definitely be some Josh Allen chaos plays or Steelers black magic that give Pittsburgh a shot at winning this thing, but it’s hard to really project that happening. With Watt out, I think the Bills won’t have much trouble putting up points. If Buffalo takes a lead and puts Pittsburgh in a negative game script, it could get ugly quick. Against one of the worst pass-blocking lines in football, Buffalo’s bevy of pass rushers shouldn’t have problem getting pressure. Mason Rudolph also has an ugly 42.1 PFF grade under pressure.
The model likes Pittsburgh, but I’m not too interested in backing them in this game. The weather looks like it should be solid for this game so I’m going to bet on Buffalo scoring against this Watt-less defense. Buffalo has to stop the run early to keep Pittsburgh from burning clock and put them in a negative game script. DaQuan Jones has been great for Buffalo this year and he’s back after missing ten games this season, so that helps. Highmark should be rocking early with drunk Bills fans so that will hopefully boost that defense to get some early stops.
Stealing a bet from ESPN’s Mike Clay, he likes Mason Rudolph over 26.5 pass attempts and that lines up with with my thesis for this game.
Buffalo Team Total over 24.5 (+115)
Buffalo 1H Team Total over 13.5 (+105)
Mason Rudolph over 26.5 pass attempts (+115)
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This just feels like a strange football game. Priors would tell us that the Eagles should roll in this game, but the defense has been atrocious lately, A.J. Brown is out, and Jalen Hurts is dealing with a finger injury. There hasn’t been much reporting on it that I’ve seen, but he didn’t throw a pass until at least Friday. My model is projecting him at full strength, but there is a lot of concern that he will be downgraded in this game.
On the other side of the ball, Baker Mayfield is also banged up. Mayfield has historically been terrible under pressure. Tampa is good at the tackle spots, but weak up the middle which is highly concerning against an Eagles front that boasts a handful of good interior defenders. If Dave Canales and Tampa can find some sort of way to mitigate that, the Buccaneers will have success on offense.
Both defenses are bottom ten in pass EPA/play against, so this lines up to be a shootout through the air. However, with A.J. Brown out, and both quarterbacks banged up, that puts the threat of both passing offenses in question.
This is a difficult game to project. I can see a world where Philadelphia wakes up, the offense moves the ball, and the defense plays up to their talent, but in reality, it’s more likely to project this team to come out how they’ve looked the past month, and that is a team not playing good football. The Hurts injury concerns me, and Philly’s defense has been on a horrible run so I’ll take the points with Tampa.
Tampa Bay +3 (-110)