Knowing that the strategic depth quality and the sheer eclectic attitude of the leadership in Russia are staggering, relative to the quality of the leadership in the Woke Wild West, we can derive from the December 2021 ultimatum in form of two draft texts:
Treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees,
Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and the Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization [NATO],
and from the launching of the SMO, that what's happening right now in Ukraine, are not just limited to the security indivisibility and the 'no state should strengthen its security at the expense of another'; but, considering that the two documents were written in the language of ultimatum therefore designed to be rejected, and, from what the Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko declared, which is : “The Europeans must also think about whether they want to avoid making their continent the scene of military confrontation. They have a choice. Either they take seriously what is put on the table, or they face a military-technical alternative.”, we could unpack that according to the above the following questions.
The keyword here is continent
.
Did he mean that Russia will bring the heat to the EU countries and landscape?
I don't think this is what he intended to convey to his audience. So where is the beef?
Why Poland Cares So Much About Ukraine
The strong shall do what they can and the weak shall suffer what they must.
Poland lost the territory in the east and was granted the territory in the west as compensation.
An agreement between the Allies was reached at the Yalta Conference, the "former eastern territories of Germany" (Ehemalige deutsche Ostgebiete) refer in present-day Germany to those territories east of the current eastern border of Germany i.e. the Oder–Neisse line which historically had been considered German were annexed by Poland after World War II.
In many of these territories, Germans used to be the dominant or sole ethnicity. In contrast to the lands awarded to the restored Polish state by the Treaty of Versailles after World War I, the German territories lost with the Potsdam Agreement after World War II on 1 August 1945 were either almost exclusively inhabited by Germans before 1945 (the bulk of East Prussia, Lower Silesia, Farther Pomerania, and parts of Western Pomerania, Lusatia, and Neumark), mixed German-Polish with a German majority (the Posen-West Prussia Border March, Lauenburg and Bütow Land, the southern and western rim of East Prussia, Ermland, Western Upper Silesia, and the part of Lower Silesia east of the Oder), or mixed German-Czech with a German majority (Glatz).
Virtually the entire German population of the territories that did not flee voluntarily in the face of the Red Army advance of 1945, was expelled to Germany, with their possessions being expropriated.
Thereafter, eastern Poland was annexed into the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic and the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic dividing Poland along the Curzon Line.
Why Germany Cares So Much About Poland
October 2021, in anticipation, of Germany reaction to Poland claiming its territories lost from Ukraine, by doing the same as Poland and claiming the territories Germany lost from Poland, Warsaw sent a diplomatic note to Berlin demanding the equivalent of over €1.3 trillion ($1.37 trillion) in compensation for the war-related damages to kill in the womb any intentions from Germany to do the same as Poland by requesting the land stolen from it after WWII by Poland.
January 2023, Deputy Foreign Minister Arkadiusz Mularczyk said "Germany does not pursue a friendly policy toward Poland," he told the Polish Press Agency (PAP). "They want to create a sphere of influence here and treat Poland as a vassal state."
In an environment that rewards and even reveres victimhood, he also called on the United Nations to intervene in support of Poland’s claims against its neighbour.
Let them finish it off
While WWII brought to Ukraine an enormous physical destruction, victory also led to territorial expansion. The Ukrainian border was expanded to the Curzon Line. Ukraine was also expanded southwards, near the area Izmail, previously part of Romania.
An agreement was signed by the Soviet Union and Tchechoslovakia whereby Carpathian Ruthenia was handed over to Ukraine. The territory of Ukraine expanded by 167,000 square kilometres (64,500 sq mi) and increased its population by an estimated 11 million.
In 1940 Romania's territorial gains made following World War I were largely undone. In July, after a Soviet ultimatum, Romania agreed to give up Bessarabia and northern Bukovina (the Soviets also annexed the city of Hertsa, which was not stated in the ultimatum).
Two-thirds of Bessarabia were combined with a small part of the Soviet Union to form the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic.
The rest (northern Bukovina, the northern half of Hotin county and Budjak) was apportioned to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
Shortly thereafter, on 30 August, under the Second Vienna Award, Germany and Italy mediated a compromise between Romania and Hungary: Hungary received a region referred to as 'Northern Transylvania', while 'Southern Transylvania' remained part of Romania (Hungary had lost Transylvania after World War I in the Treaty of Trianon).
On 7 September, under the Treaty of Craiova, Southern Dobruja (which Bulgaria had lost after the Romanian invasion during the Second Balkan War in 1913), was ceded to Bulgaria under pressure from Germany.
Despite the relatively recent acquisition of these territories, those were inhabited by a majority of Romanian speaking people (except Southern Dobruja), so the Romanians had seen them as historically belonging to Romania, and the fact that so much land was lost without a fight shattered the underpinnings of King Carol's power.
Where this is all heading?
An article from Le Monde, here, gives hint on what's brewing under the surface.
As you can see, pitching brotherly nations against each other in destructive war is domain not reserved only to the CIA, but other nations, with means (like Russia and China) based on history and drawing from lesson learned from the US, can stir up whole continent. From fraternel nations to fratricidal wars in Europe (Germany vs Poland, France vs Germany, etc….).
Also, Andrei Martyanov in one of his youtube videos said that the non ultimatum ultimatum was laid to put the US in its place; but I think it goes further than that.
Russia, having suffered, during the last few centuries, multiple invasions coming from the West, closed down the invasion highway after WWII; but the current leadership in Russia will not be satisfied only by positioning the US in its place, and shutting down the highway, but to surgically extract the idea from the Anglo-Zionist, to even think of invading Russia one more time, and routing NATO to destroy NATO, also.
Let's speculate from how the SMO is being conducted and from how the Russian leadership sets up the table in 2022, and the US after noticing the enormity of the blunder they made by pottering about Ukraine, and in the end understood the sheer consequences for them and their protectorate.
That it doesn't bode well for the empire and its NATO.
As usual, the US reaction was swift and quick, they blew up Nord Stream pipelines and dispatched warships to forestall any attempt to repair the pipelines, specifically to prevent Germany from being able to build any kind of capable weaponry and use it to reclaim its lost territories from Poland.
In mean time Germany is being demilitarized and forced by the US to transfer all its heavy weapons to Ukraine to be destroyed, see here and here . But at the same time the US refused to transfer its weaponry to Ukraine, even that the US have far more weapons and those weapons are stationed in Germany, Poland and everywhere in Europe.
On 8 March, 2022, the Polish government released a statement indicating their eagerness to hand over the country’s entire MiG-29 fleet for use in Ukraine.[1] Warsaw intended to transfer the jets to Ramstein Air Base in Germany at the disposal of the U.S. government.
That is not enough!
They must to do more. No trust. So the CIA figured out new dirty trick to force Germany and Poland to discharge all the weapons they have at hand to Ukraine.
Thus, they invented the Spring Counter-Offensive to “unblock”, which Spring Counter-Offensive is shown every day in need of every single weapon Germany and Poland have, otherwise the Spring summer and fall Counter-Offensive cannot not fail, and/or it will because of them Germans and Pols not providing their weapons to Ukraine, and the leaders of Germany and Poland will blamed/sanctioned and not the US since they (US) are protecting them and the US are exceptional, they must be obeyed.
On the other hand, in front of their, propagandized to be pro-Ukraine anti-Russia, public opinion, Germany and Poland cannot easily find way to not to release the weapons even by invoking the national security excuse, since they were bragging for years in front of their citizens that they are under the sole umbrella and protection of the USA.
Afghanistan proved to world that the US is no longer able to wage wars and/or protect anyone. Look at what happened to Saudia in Yemen (failing Patriot AD against Yemeni drones ) and the insult to the USA of the peace deal between Saudia and Iran brokered by China and Russia.
And, since defeating Russia is impossible to achieve by any means whatsoever, therefore the drums of war are now being beaten against the Europeans by the consequences of the blunder in following the US poking the bear in Ukraine.
What the Europeans to do then?
The Germans came up with scheme and sent Macron and Van der Leyen to China, - since they can't do it as Turkey is doing it (playing tightrope walker between Russia and NATO) - in show that they can no longer tolerate, and to the point where Macron declared,
we cannot be vassals any more (or something like that) and asked French people to give him 100 days relief.
And "to counter that”, Annalena and Josep (: at the invitation of State Councilor and Foreign Minister - China frying US nerves here ;) went to China,
to reiterate a significant distancing of Berlin from contentious remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron.
So who's the patsy…. Well, as the saying goes, if you don't know who's the patsy, you are the patsy…
Thus, we see here the SMO, will not only demilitarize/denazify/neutralize Ukraine, but also will put the US in position where it has to choose between which ally to support against which ally.
I speculate that if the US will choose to support Poland then Russia will support Germany, and if the US choose to support Germany, Russia will support Poland. No matter what the US will do, they will find themselves in loosing side. If they choose Eastern Europe, Western Europe is lost to the US, and vice-versa.
In mean time USA is amassing troops in Europe (Eastern) by 10th of thousands, and doing everything it can to disarm Germany and Poland. They even blow up the North Stream pipelines, with the usual excuse of sanctioning Russia, to prevent German’s industries to build weapons.
We can easily speculate, given the intensity of the explosions in Ternopil/Khmelnytskyi, that the locations of the ammunition depots there where shared to the Russian by the USA.
Will the USA give it to China to sort it out?
to be continued….