Voters sent a message to Lauren Boebert. Will she listen?
Boebert performed worse in her district than all but one Republican for state-wide office
A little heartburn is a good thing if it leads to healthier choices.
There will be a recount of ballots in the 3rd Congressional District starting this week. Congresswoman Lauren Boebert beat former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch by a mere 550 votes. Even though he conceded, the law requires a recount when the vote margin between candidates is less than .5 percent of the total votes cast for the winner. While the recount isn’t expected to change the results, it will keep the race in the news cycle until December 13, when it must be completed. That’s good; Boebert and the remaining MAGA supporters in this state need to feel a little indigestion.
Judging by her Twitter presence, Boebert hasn’t taken to heart the election’s lessons. She may still be under the illusion that her unexpected photo-finish victory was due to a lack of enthusiasm for statewide top ticket candidates, as she suggested after Election Day. A new analysis by The Colorado Sun should disabuse her; she underperformed all statewide GOP candidates in her district except one, gubernatorial candidate Heidi Ganahl.
Republican candidates for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, Treasurer, and Attorney General all received more votes in Colorado’s third district than did the congresswoman. While Boebert beat her opponent by a fraction of a percent in CD3, Lang Sias led his opponent by seven percentage points, John Kellner beat his by five, Pam Anderson hers by three, and Joe O’Dea his by two.
The 3rd Congressional District is one of a minority of districts in Colorado where Republican voters outnumber Democrats. Thirty-one percent of active registered voters are Republicans, 24% are Democrats, and the remainder (44%) of voters is unaffiliated. In 2020, Boebert beat her opponent Diane Mitsch Bush 51% to 45%. The district has since been redrawn to include more Republicans. In 2022, a strong Republican should have garnered 55% or more of the vote.
Instead, a significant percentage of right-leaning voters split their ticket by voting for GOP statewide candidates and a Democrat for Congress or by voting for the GOP and leaving an empty bubble for that race.
Boebert was the only Trump-endorsed candidate in Colorado. An analysis by Philip Wallach, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, found Trump-backed Republicans underperformed expectations in competitive races while Republican candidates who were not endorsed by the former president over-performed expectations.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, for example, beat Stacey Abrams 53% to 46%. Trump-picked Herschel Walker is tied in the polls going into the December 5 runoff. So long as no more skeletons tumble out of his closet and he refrains from talking, he has a chance, but the GOP would be in a far stronger position had they picked a different candidate.
Republican candidates who were not officially endorsed by Trump but touted election conspiracy theories also did poorly in comparison to mainstream Republicans. An analysis by the Washington Post of 47 competitive races for Congress and statewide offices found election deniers fared poorly; only ten of the 47 won, with two races, not yet called.
Election deniers did poorly here, too. Republican candidates in statewide offices or in congressional districts accepted the 2020 election results. Only Erik Aadland, candidate for the 7th Congressional District and Danny Moore, Ganahl’s running mate, were on record for saying the election was rigged. While they backpedaled the allegations, their former stance cost them votes.
Fortunately, Trump’s announcement for another presidential bid seems to have garnered a mix of “meh,” “nah,” and “hell no” from prominent Republicans in the state. They understand that his brand of politics is toxic here. If Republicans want to exert a modicum of political influence in this deep blue state, they must reject Trump’s style, his election conspiracy theories, and the man himself. Take heed congresswoman.
Krista L. Kafer is a weekly Denver Post columnist. Follow her on Twitter: @kristakafer.