What Donald Trump (Allegedly) Did to Stormy Daniels....
And what Republicans are doing to themselves and DA Bragg is doing to the Democrats.....
UPDATES ON OUR WEEK’S BIGGEST STORIES BELOW
****
If you get value from this newsletter, please consider making a voluntary contribution to support my work.
You can contribute ANY amount you wish via any of the following routes:
* Buy me a cocktail (at Detroit prices….), tax and server tip included, by clicking here.
* Buy me a cup of coffee (or a month’s worth) by clicking here.
* Check. Send a simple email to markhalperintalk@gmail.com and ask where you can send a piece of paper.
• PayPal. markhalperinnyc@gmail.com
• Venmo. Mark-Halperin-4 (telephone number ends in x3226)
• Zelle. markhalperinnyc@gmail.com
OR SUBSCRIBE NOW AT FIXED RATES — OR BECOME A FOUNDING MEMBER:
Remember: There are no ads, sponsors, investors, staff, or corporate backers supporting the Wide World of News.
Thank you for your consideration.
Mark
****
HOW THE DEMOCRATS’ WISCONSIN SUPREME COURT VICTORY ILLUSTRATES THE MEGA 2024 PROBLEMS OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY
The Wall Street Journal ed board is honest enough to be openly worried about some key trends about which most of the party is in denial.
Here are the four interrelated factors that were put in sharp relief by the massive Blue victory in the Badger State contest, all of which were big deals in 2022 and all of which threaten Red chances in the 2024 presidential and down-ballot contests:
1. Fundraising.
As PBS Wisconsin reports, Democrats had a huge edge with big donors in this race – a dynamic that becomes double troubling for the GOP when you look at the massive edge Joe Biden’s party has with small-dollar givers as well.
The twin moolah streams (big and little) threaten to crush Republican candidates, which is why Ron DeSantis is intriguing to many.
2. Early in-person and by-mail voting.
Although Donald Trump and other previous skeptics have come around, Democrats retain a massive edge in mechanics and voter attitude – and it showed bigly in Wisconsin.
3. The power of abortion rights to drive votes, creating a massive gender gap edge with women for Democrats, and influencing suburban voters.
This angle is covered by the Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal, all of whom point out that continuing Republican legislative efforts to restrict access to abortion and the party’s failure to have a clear, passionate, broad voter-inspiring position on the issue is a major electoral problem.
4. Trump-aligned MAGA candidates who threaten democratic norms undermine the power of Red issue advantages (on crime, etc).
Consume this essential reading Washington Post piece on this point.
These are not four peripheral matters. They were solid Blue pillars in many 2002 races and in Wisconsin Tuesday.
Even if Republicans had robust plans already underway to defuse this quad of challenges, it might already be too late to effectively deal with them by 2024.
But they actually have almost nothing meaningful going on in any of the four areas – and no official or unofficial leadership or organizations in place to effectively ameliorate.
To be continued….
****
THE UNBEARABLE LIGHTNESS OF BRAGG’S CASE
Politico has two stories about how flawed the case is to the minds of many legal eagles and legal beagles, but focus on the devastating New York Times op-ed piece by Professor Jed Handelsman Shugerman:
Tuesday was historic for the rule of law in America, but not in the way Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, would have imagined. The 34-count indictment — which more accurately could be described as 34 half-indictments — was a disaster. It was a setback for the rule of law and established a dangerous precedent for prosecutors.
This legal embarrassment reveals new layers of Trumpian damage to the legal foundations of the United States: Mr. Trump’s opponents react to his provocations and norms violations by escalating and accelerating the erosion of legal norms.
The case appears so weak on its legal and jurisdictional basis that a state judge might dismiss the case and mitigate that damage. More likely, the case is headed to federal court for a year, where it could lose on the grounds of federal pre-emption — only federal courts have jurisdiction over campaign finance and filing requirements. Even if it survives a challenge that could reach the Supreme Court, a trial would most likely not start until at least mid-2024, possibly even after the 2024 election.
The Washington Post looks at how the weakness of the case, Trump’s penchant and motivation for stalling, and a lot of complexity means the judicial and political calendars are on a collision course:
By next spring, the Trump campaign could be dug in for a long delegate fight or, if the early states go its way, have already sewn up the nomination. Either scenario could provide a reason for the Trump legal team to seek further delay….
Trump’s team expects there will be movement on the other investigations by the summer — investigations they have feared more than the New York one. Trump has been angered and annoyed, according to the advisers, by reports he’s received about his lawyers and close aides testifying due to court orders as part of special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into the potential mishandling of hundreds of classified national security papers….
Should Trump’s case proceed to trial a year from now, as suggested by the former president’s attorneys, it would still be considered fast-tracked compared with other cases in Manhattan’s state court. It is not uncommon for felony matters to drag on for years, with delays over competing motions or disputes over discovery and other issues. Trial dates are routinely changed because of witness availability, holidays and other hurdles….
In this case, Jed Shugerman, a Fordham Law School professor, said Bragg has essentially invited Trump’s lawyers to try to get a federal judge to intervene and rule on issues related to the alleged election law violations, a process that could go all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court and extend the case by a year or more. He said it was “hard to imagine a scenario” where the case would be tried before the 2024 election, should Trump ask a federal court to intervene.
Shugerman said that while ordinarily Trump’s delays work to “game the system,” in this case, Trump has reasonable grounds to move slowly, as he waits for Bragg’s office to provide discovery and a fuller explanation of the case.
“He can use this to his advantage,” Shugerman said.
****
THE STATUS OF DONALD TRUMP’S CAMPAIGN
* From that same Washington Post story:
Trump, who pleaded not guilty to the charges, is likely to call in to town hall meetings on Thursday to rally supporters and travel next week to speak to the GOP’s top donors in Nashville and then to the National Rifle Association’s annual convention in Indianapolis, according to Trump advisers.
Trump watched Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s post-arraignment news conference on the plane ride back to his home in Florida and complained about the prosecutor. He is likely to continue attacking Bragg and New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan, although some in his orbit wish he would stop the attacks — particularly at the judge — according to the advisers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share private discussions….
* The New York Times has an essential read on how Trump, Trump World, DeSantis, and others are reacting to the swirl of events:
Some of Mr. Trump’s close associates concede that in a general election indictments are unlikely to draw more moderate suburban and independent voters who have been wary of the former president for several election cycles. And all of that is outside of the substantial legal peril Mr. Trump now faces.
Several people in his orbit have privately acknowledged that, absent a recession, it is hard to visualize the circumstances that would lead an independent voter who supported Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020 because they were fed up with chaos to turn around — four years and potentially multiple indictments later — and look at Mr. Trump and figure he’s worth another shot.
But Mr. Trump and some of his allies and advisers view politics through a narrow, and short, lens, and for the moment, they are looking for the upside of an undesirable situation. For now, they are treating the indictment brought by the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, as a political gift, and one that contained nothing that surprised them….
Besides the money pouring in to bolster what had been a slow start to his 2024 campaign’s fund-raising, influential voices on the right who had been gravitating away from Mr. Trump, or outright criticizing him, have become more muted or said they are now supporting him.
Mr. Trump’s advisers have gleefully noted that it has become politically painful for a Republican to attack Mr. Trump after the indictment. Doing so now, they say, makes those Republican critics co-conspirators with Democrats who Mr. Trump says are bent on destroying him. Some of his allies have painted him in starkly martyr-like terms, comparing him to Jesus Christ….
Mr. Trump’s support in public opinion polls has jumped among Republicans, showing his perceived limits in gaining back those voters is higher than some of his opponents had believed. Some of Mr. DeSantis’s allies have been surprised at the extent of the bump Mr. Trump has garnered.
* Politico has a memo Team Trump is using to target DeSantis donors, leveraging the latest polling to try to get them on board with the frontrunner.
* How do leading Wall Street Journal columnists propose to stop Trump from being the nominee?
Dan Henninger goes with: Simply assert Republican voters should nominate someone else.
Easier said than done.
Karl Rove goes with: Simply assert Trump can’t win a general election against Joe Biden on the current legal/political trajectory.
Current polling that shows Trump ahead of (or even with) Biden makes that case a bit dicier:
* Since Donald Trump has already read every word of this Page Six extended interview with Stephanie Winston Wolkoff about Melania, you probably should also.
****
THE STATUS OF RON DESANTIS’ CAMPAIGN
* The Associated Press curtain raises the Sunshine State topper’s today trip to Michigan.
* The Spectator has a review of last Saturday’s DeSantis speech in Pennsylvania that is much, much more favorable than that sent in by your fellow WWoN reader, as well as a link to the video of the event, so you can decide for yourself which of the following (if any!) is true:
1. DeSantis’ political and rhetorical skills are good enough right now for him to win.
2. He isn’t good enough now, but he can improve.
3. He isn’t good enough now (and won’t get better) by conventional standards, but he can win without being conventional.
****
THE STATUS OF RFK’s CAMPAIGN
* In it, apparently, to win it, which could mean nothing – or could mean great complexity for Joe Biden – or great trouble for the Democrats if Biden announces in the late summer or early fall that he isn’t running.
****
Want fewer typos in this newsletter?