19 Comments

Hi Dan, since the NY AG's announcement last week regarding the Trump crime family syndicate, I've been thinking a lot about the culture of "white-collar" crime that the Trump era has exposed. It seems to be rampant but is not at all sensationalized in the media like a smash and grab robbery, though it is just as corrosive, if not more so, to our society. When we allow people to break the law with impunity, it corrodes trust in our institutions and fosters cynicism and apathy. By focusing solely on street crime in the messaging, aren't we still singing by the Republican hymnal rather than on our own terms? Shouldn't Dems respond by flipping the message - hell, yeah, we're concerned about crime of all kinds, including business and financial crimes that harm our communities by depriving our public safety and educational institutions of needed funds. Lawbreakers of every kind, whether a petty thief or a tax cheat, must be held accountable for our society to function properly. (Could be stated better, but something like that.)

Expand full comment

Republicans own every gun death due to their unwaivering support of open carry with no background checks.

Expand full comment

Yesterday on Political Experts React the violent footage in the first ad you showed reminded me of the Jan 6 footage. Would it be beneficial to use some of that in ads for Dems to show how hypocritical Republicans are about their support for police and how violence is something they actually encourage? It might also remind people about what is at stake in this election.

Expand full comment

I appreciate this - the negative ads about crime (linked with houselessness) are exactly what I'm seeing in Oregon. Just a reminder that Portland didn't burn to the ground. But I do think this can turn back on Republicans, open carry, and mass shootings that occur daily. I think you can also tie it to terrified children going through school drills - what fresh hell is that?

I think a really smart ad would tie the crime bullshit the Republicans are spewing with their (lack of) economic policies. When we don't have an infrastructure that supports people and lifts them out of poverty and houselessness, crime increases. As you said, root causes, but people need specifics.

One thing that has me concerned is that everyone is focused on swing states - but I am worried that places like Oregon are more "swing" than folks want to admit. I think this is true all over, and all I needed to remind me is that in our neighbor state, Idaho, college faculty are being told to remain neutral on issues of abortion. I don't think they mean just in the classroom.

Expand full comment

I saw this on Twitter and went to find it to share here. https://twitter.com/CourierNewsroom/status/1574040849163370497?s=20&t=uSOFa5H-J5bDJpc0ttAXhA

Think it does a good job of hitting back hard!

Expand full comment

Great way to pull together many ideas on messaging and approach, and present it in a coherent and very usable way. Especially the hundred thousand new cops. That directly puts the lie to “defund the police” without having to say those words.

How in the world has someone not drafted you to run a campaign? How many offers have you turned down?

Has anyone noticed the Rubio racism, where he is so darkening the skin of Val Demmings that the shot of her with Pelosi (of course) was so exaggerated that Pelosi looked Black. I am sure the same thing happens with every Black candidate. Do these jerks not remember Lee Atwater’s “Oops, I’m dying, so I guess I’m sorry” tour?

Expand full comment

“ In a recent NBC Poll, Republicans had a 23-point advantage on the issue of crime.” I am flabbergasted at how idiotic and plain stupid people are. I swear to Christ

Expand full comment

Good stuff, Dan. Spot on. Seriously. So explain to me why so many Democrats are doing exactly what you argue that they shouldn't?

I traipse over to ToonTown (aka Twitter) a couple times a week, and over and over and over there are posts that start with some version of "How can they possibly believe ... "

Ironically, this rhetorical equivalent to "We're so much smarter" provides at least some evidence of the elitism the Right likes to trumpet. If we don't get over our being impressed with ourselves, accept that they do believe absurdities, and start working from there, we're going to wake up on November 9 looking forward to endless House investigations and loss of the ability to approve judicial nominations.

And while Democrats and Republicans engage in "Fuck you! Oh, yeah. well fuck you, too!", Independents are tuning much of that out and attending to their loss of purchasing power. Maybe your messaging on crime can help neutralize Republican attacks, but if we don't come up with a persuasive argument for Independents to trust Democrats with the economy, it won't make a damn bit of difference. And comically Orwellian tactics like calling a bill "The Inflation Reduction Act" that does little if anything about inflation is only going to impress Democratic kool aid drinkers.

Another big problem for the Democrats is Biden't foot-in-mouth disease. Covid's over because people aren't wearing masks is right up there with inflation-is-temporary and leaving-Afghanistan-won't-be-like-leaving-Vietnam. I've fucking had it with his inability to engage his brain before his mouth. And the baby formula snafu will sooner or later reemerge as evidence of the Administration's inability to pay attention to what matters. That only 21% of Independents want him to run again should tell us all we need to know, assuming we're willing to listen.

And where the hell is Harris?

I continue writing letters, postcards, and texts to get people registered and get out the vote, but I feel like I'm pissing into the Democratic Party's self-destructive wind. Over in ToonTown otherwise smart people like Ted Lieu are citing polls - FUCKING POLLS!!! - as reason to believe November 8 will go well. Nothing like an echo chamber to provide feedback that makes you feel like you've got it all under control. It's deflating. And it's evidence that we're not as smart as we think we are.

I hope to hell I'm wrong, but I don't feel at all good about November 8. Not one bit. The silver lining should I unfortunately be right is that Democrats will thank Joe Biden for his service and choose someone else for 2024.

Expand full comment

Thank you Dan, this is super helpful and prescient! Just shared it with my candidate, sharing it with campaign staff tomorrow!

Expand full comment

This NYT story waits until paragraph 11 to admit that crime a) isn’t out of control and b) isn’t something Congress can impact. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/us/politics/republicans-crime-midterms.html?fbclid=IwAR2ip7UQKihAuHr2UCMvA8zDnUXZWP4eF0H0I0Eo3H9ozQzVg-KLCrOaFJE

Expand full comment