Midterms = Mixed results
I love elections because it is a real opportunity to gather accurate information. Before the elections, people try to gather information from likely or registered voters through polling, news reporting, social media monitoring or actually talking to voters. However, it is not until the results come in that you really know what people were thinking through their actual vote, or lack of voting.
Although the midterm results are still not known, it is very possible that Republicans will win a slim majority in both the House and Senate. However… Democrats seem to be the winners despite losing or at least not winning.
Here are some of my thoughts from the information learned so far.
#1 - Democrats thought unconventional and Republicans thought conventional
Conventional wisdom in polling data
This is where “conventional wisdom” in past elections did not help polling data and might have misled Republicans to think more conventionally (or traditional). “Conventional wisdom” says that when a President is in a midterm and…
His approval rating is low, and
People say the country is headed in the wrong direction, and
The economy is a main concern of voters, then…
The President’s party is headed for big losses in the midterms. Pollsters factor in this “conventional wisdom” when they do their polling results. This created a lot of enthusiasm on the Republican side and a belief that this would carry them through the midterms. As a result,
Republicans hit general themes like - crime, inflation, the border.
Democrats dismissed those ideas or downplayed them in certain areas while saying that Republicans have no ideas to solve any problems.
Unconventional Democrats
I thought Democrats were crazy to run on a message of - “well… the Republicans offer no solutions to inflation” - because I thought more with conventional wisdom that this looked like a “change” election. A “change election” simply means that people vote out incumbents because they are tired of those in charge and not happy with the policies they believe play a negative role in their lives.
However, this did not happen even if Republicans win the House and Senate. Democrats simply had better internal polling in the areas they were trying to maintain than Republicans. Democrats used the messaging they found mattered most to the voters in places like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Colorado and Virginia.
The biggest clue that this was not a “change election” = incumbents were the big winners.
#2 - Voters want stability, not chaos
The election results did not reflect “conventional wisdom” so what does the result reflect? It is my opinion, that voters wanted stability and not chaos that comes with either a “MAGA” backed candidate that has no experience or any other candidate that was not a proven leader with a positive track record, according to the voter.
Evidence:
Governors throughout the US were re-elected
Even in blue states like New Hampshire and Vermont, Republican Governors won re-election by big margins
Senate + House of Representatives were re-elected with very few incumbents losing
Some races are still being decided, but the winners will follow this rule or be exceptions to this rule
Despite “conventional wisdom” of a bad economy and crime, maybe voters are telling us that they are so worried about the future that they do not want to roll the dice with a new candidate that might sound too crazy or combative. Instead, they would rather play it safe and keep the same political leader in office they already have.
Believe People mean what they Vote
Regardless if I think this is a good idea, we cannot discount this overwhelming result of voting in incumbents instead of wanting change during a bad economic year. The former White House press secretary made an observation about the results last night that made me laugh, and I found to be very true.
If voters are seeking stability, Trump-like candidates will not be successful. This is where Democrats internal polling was right and their tactic of supporting MAGA-type candidates to win the Republican primaries paid off. I talked about this in a previous newsletter and polling appeared to show that this tactic might blow up in their faces. However, it did not. Those candidates in those certain areas were easier to beat because it appeared that those candidates would bring chaos to their lives.
My prediction - For 2024, Democrats will continue using messaging of candidates as Ultra-MAGA-Mega types.
Exceptions to the above rule
There are some exceptions to my Mega-MAGA rule above with Trump-backed winners like J.D. Vance in Ohio for the Senate. However, I find it very interesting that
Vance was running for an “open seat” and not against an incumbent, and
The Republican Ohio Governor won by 25 points, but Vance won by 6 points.
Exceptions to the rule should not create a new rule. Trump was an exception to the rule in 2016 and broke ALL conventional wisdom in that election year. However… Trump has not created a new rule which should be evident with the election results of 2018, 2020, and now 2022.
Can Republicans think unconventionally?
It looks like Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock are headed for a runoff election for Georgia’s Senate seat on December 6th. Georgia law mandates that political candidates have to win by a majority vote or over 50%. I really like this idea because people are more willing to accept the results when a person wins by a majority instead of a plurality, or someone receiving the most votes, but it is under 50%.
This is an opportunity for Republicans to think unconventionally and appeal to voters craving peace and stability even if that means the economy and crime are bad. Brian Kemp won re-election, as Governor, with a 53% to 45% spread. Therefore, it is possible for Walker to achieve that spread as well. However, will the Mega-MAGA titles sink his chances?
Whatever happens, pray for the people of Georgia who have truly become political hostages in these past 2 years!
Sincerely,
Me
Thank you for helping me better process what happened last night. Very well thought out, especially given how recent the events were!