Partly, Russian Telegram is quiet and repetitive. Partly, this is big news. We have been watching this take form over the last three months. This kind of drama will likely lead to elections and, hopefully, the end of the Bibi Netanyahu era. First, the news:
BREAKING | Israel’s Supreme Court issues decision to stop funding yeshivas (Jewish religious schools) for the ultra Orthodox (Haredim) as of Monday, April 1.
This comes in the wake of a conscription law that would force formerly exempt Ultra Orthodox Jews to enlist in the Israeli army, which is facing a major manpower crisis.
The Haredim have protested and threatened to leave the country if they are forced to serve in the army.
Mind you, I am using an Arab source because right after it broke, Arab telegram went crazy. This leaked yesterday, so it was not particularly a surprise. This is the Google translate of the screen cap above:
Summary
As we saw above, starting from 1.4.24, that is, after the expiration of Government Resolution 682, and in the absence of a resolution
A government that extends its validity, there will no longer be a legal source of authority that allows a blanket avoidance of proceedings
for the recruitment of members of the Yeshiva. All authorized state officials will be obliged to act in connection with the recruitment procedures accordingly
to be prosecuted; What this means is that the recruitment authorities will have to act on the call for the reporting of my students
The yeshiva and graduates of ultra-orthodox educational institutions that the service provided to them by virtue of Chapter III of the Law is postponed
expired, or who reached conscription age after the expiration of Article 1 of the law. The manner of realization of this obligation will be determined by authorities
The recruitment.
According to the position of the Legal Adviser to the Government, as of April 1, 2024, in light of the general provisions of the Security Service Law, and in the absence of a normative framework that would allow a blanket rejection of their service, or the non-recruitment of yeshiva students, the government will not have the authority to continue transferring support funds to institutions for those students who will must be recruited according to the law.
However, the legal advisor to the government believes that there is room to allow only a short period of preparation, as a transitional provision, during which it will be possible to continue providing the supports, and this, taking into account the need to prepare the supported institutions and the students studying in them for the new state of affairs.
To the extent that the honorable court deems it appropriate, the state offers to allow it to submit a supplementary answering affidavit, which will detail the manner in which the recruitment authorities prepare for the recruitment of yeshiva students and graduates of ultra-orthodox educational institutions.
Avi Milikovsky, Adv
In charge of High Court affairs
at the state attorney’s office
Sigal Avnon Svitsky, Senior Deputy Attorney at the High Courts Department at the State Attorney’s Office
Now, this is a political earthquake. First, let me explain the Israeli political system. (Yes, I've been doing due diligence and deep-diving into its mechanism and history.) the first thing that matters is that the Israeli political system closely follows the British parliamentary system. Ergo, it’s got lots of parties. They range in flavor from the left-liberal zionists, like Labor, all the way to the far-right quasi-messianic Zionist nationalist parties. It includes religious parties.
Starting in 1973 with the October War Labor began to to get seriously punished. Why? Until October 7, the greatest disaster for national security had occurred since the War of Independence. So they have lost a lot of ground, to the point that Labor (left wing) is happy if they manage to get a seat or two, ok four, last election, in the Knesset, that is Parliament.
The right, starting with Yitzhak Shamir, less so Menachem Begin, made a promise that something like 1973 would never happen again. Begin was part of the unity government in 1967 like there is one right now. It was his victory in 1977 that ended the dominance of labor in Israeli politics.
This brings us to the present. The promise of security at all costs is how we ended up with increasingly right-leaning governments, including the present one.
How is an Israeli government formed? Based on the percentage of the votes, the president, mainly in a ceremonial position, asks the presumptive prime minister to form a government. This invitation is done to whatever party has the most votes. The last election was close, way close. So Netanyahu formed a government by inviting members to the cabinet from far right parties, because Bibi despises more moderate forces, mostly they might hold him accountable for things he has done. This is how we ended with Itamar Ben Gvir in the cabinet. The more moderate party in second place was not even invited.
This is the electoral breakdown in 2022, the cap is from Ha’Aretz. Numbers three, four, and five are your far right, including a far-right nationalist party and Shas. The last one is the source of the Chaderim's anger. Here is why:
The Ministry of Finance ordered to prepare for the disconnection of the education networks of Shas and Torah Judaism from the state’s payment systems. This is because the networks have not improved their transparency — despite the ultimatum of the accountant general
This is the core of the Shas Party. They work to maximize payments and all that. Also, to prevent children from having to serve in the army. While service is mandatory for Israeli Jews, this carve-out started in 1948, and it’s the source of some of the tensions in Israeli society.
Every Jewish Israeli serves except these guys. It goes back to the country's early years when Ben Gurion allowed them to study the Torah to preserve it for future generations. Right, wrong. They were a tiny minority back then.
Now, all this threatens the state budget. It’s also become a major source of resentment among secular Israelis who have had to serve increasingly longer terms to keep manning up in the army. This is why some Israelis leave for greener pastures; these people will not serve.
In fact, the Shas Party was formed in 1984 among religious parties to maintain their interests. One is the continuation of payments while they study the Torah and the exemption from military service.
This brings me back to the results of the 2022 elections and three possible ways for the current government to collapse. The first, more prominent, is a no-confidence vote in the Knesset. This would lead to the dissolution of the body and new elections. It’s the most common way to do this. This is how we have had so many elections in the last ten years. It’s almost a national sport.
The second is that enough ministers walk away from the Cabinet. They could also push Bibi out, and reportedly, he is becoming more isolated within the cabinet. Israel is at war; this might happen, always with a promise to hold elections. This is not common, but again, Israel is at war.
This has the danger that we will end with a fundamentally more far-right-wing government.
The third would be for President Issaс Herzog to ask the leader of Yesh Yatid, Yair Lapid, to form a government. Again, given Israel is at war, they may. There would have to be a promise to hold elections as soon as the war ends. The cabinet's composition will change in fundamental ways if the opposition creates a government. Because the numbers are so narrow, it may include Arab parties in the Knesset. It will have to include one far-right party. However, it will still moderate the government.
When this broke this morning, I realized this was an important explainer to write. Because most of us don’t understand how this works. But surely keep your eyes open. Bibi is an unusually talented politician. So he may still pull a rabbit out of that hat. But nothing is carved in stone.
Thanks for the explanation!