Rising Tensions in the Middle East
After Israel hit a building in Damascus, killing senior members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran has threatened revenge. I will add this piece of spice. The building was not covered under diplomatic immunity. At least according to a local Syrian channel:
Syria media explains how the #Israel strike that killed Islamist #Iran IRGC General Zahedi targeted a non-diplomatic building.
Unlike Iranian claims, the four-story building was not owned by the government of Iran or its diplomatic mission in Syria. The basement and two of the four stories were owned or rented by the Iranian Embassy in Syria and often used for IRGC meetings. The two top floors were owned by two civilian Syrian families who refused Iranian offers to buy them out. One family was outside Syria when the attack happened. The other family was mainly outside the apartment, except for a grandma and her grandson, who were regretfully killed when the building collapsed.
Six of the eleven killed were Iranian IRGC officers (IRGC is paramilitary militia classified as terrorist by US State Dept), five were Syrians who worked for them, and two were the poor grandma and her grandson.
@nytimes explained that diplomatic immunity protected diplomats and real estate vis a vis the host country, not third countries. Israel was not bound by any diplomatic immunity bestowed by the Iran government to any person. Israel was especially not bound by diplomatic immunity when the alien was not on its own soil.
Finally, Hamas issued a statement eulogizing Zahedi, saying he helped build Hamas and played a role in October 7 massacre. This means that by killing him, Israel was totally acting in self defense.
So for all the ink spilled over how Israel violated international law by killing half a dozen IRGC officers, including Zahedi, a closer look shows that Israel violated none.
Heartbroken for the Syrian lady and her grandson.
I'm just offering what the locals are saying because if the building was not covered under diplomatic immunity, it removes one of the claims, not that it matters. At this point, it’s a technicality. However, it’s essential to see how locals speak of this.
That said, Iran has threatened a very large response. Israel is taking it seriously. This is the first indicator of it:
NEW: The Israeli Air Force has been put on the highest state of alert, and all reserves have been put on standby, in anticipation of a possible Iranian retaliation — Kann
This also means, and this is a standard operating procedure, so don’t read much into this; we are raising protections in Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan. I realize there have been nightly demonstrations on embassy row in Amman every night on the way to the Israeli embassy.
I realize these are bad enough that Hamas is trying to take over Jordan. That would be a hell of a prize for Iran. Why Jordan? It’s starting to dawn on Hamas that they are losing control of Gaza. The last time something like this happened, we saw Black September. It was a blood bath. So, I'm not sure how this will end, but it will not surprise me if the King orders his security services to do more than just disperse some of these demonstrations.
On the plus side, we saw Fatah distributing aid today in Gaza. This means Hamas is continuing to lose control of the strip. So what are the other indicators Israel expects to get hit and hit hard?
Israel is rehabbing bomb shelters in the center of the country and making covered parking lots available. This is from an Israeli analyst, and she may be onto something:
Tamir Morg — Channel 14 Political Correspondent: I will take a risk with a post that may become outdated very soon, but still: the chances are that the Iranian reaction will be below the threshold of war, and therefore the level of pressure that has gotten a bit out of control in the last day can be lowered.
An explanation, which should be reassuring in the short term but worrisome in the long term: the Iranians are smart and characterized by strategic patience. Their ultimate goal is the elimination of the State of Israel and for that they need a nuclear weapon. A war now could deprive them of this asset just before it becomes available to them. Sinwar also, as I remember, showed deceptive restraint for years, and suffered a lot for the sake of the “great plan”. Unfortunately it paid off for him.
So will the Iranians simply balk? Not sure at all, but it is likely that they will look for the reaction threshold that is abnormal on the one hand and is (in their opinion) below the threshold of war on the other hand. what could it be? For example, a rocket barrage deeper, for example into Acre or Kiryat, or using heavier weapons, for example semi-heavy 220 mm rockets.
Or a swarm of UAVs — a few dozen Shahad 136’s, most of which will be intercepted by the IDF’s air defense, but a few of them will penetrate and explode in the rear or some military base. Unpleasant and may even be fatal, but likely will not lead to the start of a war.
Either way, the IDF is doing well to prepare for a powerful Iranian response: we have already learned that all predictions, including this one, are no substitute for military preparedness and vigilance.
This is why I say this. It has to do with what Iran has done historically, including the bombing of Jewish institutions in Argentina in 1992. Would they do this again? Yes:
🔴 Sources in Iran: “The Revolutionary Guards gave the green light to Hezbollah for an unusual action against Israel.”
🔴 The spokesman for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards threatens: “Soon we will witness deadly attacks against Israel, and the resistance front will fulfill its duty.”
🔴 A senior member of the Revolutionary Guards: “There is no obligation to take revenge inside Israel, there are Jews in many places”
It is point number three. Iran sees Jews as targets. It does not matter if they are pro-Palestinian, ultra-far right-wing, or ultra-orthodox; it’s they are Jews. Ergo, they are valid targets. The only exception, maybe, is Neturei Karta Jews. This is why inside baseball when it comes down to it, they may be late but will not be spared.
Should we be concerned in the United States? Yes. Though I would expect attacks on far smaller, less able to protect themselves Jewish communities.
Now. let me talk about two other things regarding Israel. There were significant marches overnight demanding the return of the hostages. Then this happened:
Gantz: We need to act — militarily and politically — so that the residents can return to their homes by the summer.
Gantz: My friends and I will not sit in a government that does not act at the level of returning the kidnapped. His desire to return them is a source of strength and not weakness.
Gantz: We must reach an agreed election date towards September
This is the beginning of negotiations towards elections. Of course, a war with Iran or with proxies like Hezbollah will have the expected effect. This is a rally around the flag, which will continue indefinitely into future elections.
Then there is this post from an Arab channel. First off, this is a fat target. Second, it won’t happen for the next 36 hours…or so. Or is this a cover for events already unfolding since the airspace over Iran is empty, and there are rumors of GPS not working? This means electronic warfare is likely jamming civilian GPS:
On Friday April 5, 2024 #InternationalAlQudsDay will be like no other in the Alliance of Resistance countries (otherwise known as the axis of resistance).
Leaders of all the Resistance Alliance will have live speeches back to back announcing the steadfastness of all our peoples against the arrogant powers of the west and their Zionist lapdog.As per the “International Committee” for commemorating “Al-Quds Day” which will be held Lebanese capital Beirut at 4:00 pm, the speakers at the event will be leaders of the “Axis of Resistance,” namely:
🔻Ismail Haniyeh Hamas Leader
🔻Ziyad Nakahleh, Secretary-General of “Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine”
🔻Sayyed Hassan Nasrullah, Secretary General of the Islamic Resistance Hezbollah
🔻Sayyed Abdul-Malik Badreddine al-Houthi, Leader of the Yemeni Revolution
🔻Hadi al-Ameri, representing the enite Iraqi Resistance
🔻Sayyed Ibrahim Raisi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran.Glory to the Resistance🔻
#FreePalestine
Now, let me add this claim. Israel has denied some of these. But there have been explosions inside the country:
Sheikh of the resistance in Iraq, Akram al-Kaabi, stated: “The hand of the Iraqi Islamic resistance has reached bases in the occupied Golan Heights, the Dead Sea, the Mediterranean, Ashdod, Haifa, and Um al-Rashrash. We will target what is most important and dangerous, and the operations will expand as long as the aggression on Gaza continues.”
And by all means, don’t forget our friends, the Russians. They have expanded some of their facilities on the Syrian side of the Golan:
The Russians are in the Syrian Golan Heights, not far from the border with Israel.
Russia has sent additional forces to the Golan Heights in Syria
The forces, from Russia’s military police, were tasked with reducing tensions in the Syrian provinces of Quneitra and Daraa.
The Russian Defense Ministry announced on Wednesday that it has mobilized additional forces in Syrian-controlled areas of the Golan Heights, where Israel has been reported to have attacked at an increasing rate in recent months.
Israel News IL — on Telegram
Of all the signals, the Russians worry me the most. Russia has not been a fan of Israel since the at least 1950s. So, if they decide to make up a run to take over the Golan Heights has the greatest potential to get us into a major regional war.
No, there is no way Russia can reinforce these units, but that has not stopped them before.
Yet, there is another signal. Israel expects to lose power, just like Ukraine does regularly, from getting its electric grid attacked. If Israel gets the power grid hit, they are going to prioritize hospitals. So read this recomendación from the Bank of Israel in that light:
In the shadow of the threats from Iran, the Bank of Israel is launching a campaign in the coming days in which it will encourage keeping cash at home in case of any scenario.
Source: Ziv Rubinstein
Israel News IL — on Telegram
It is not a bad one in case of a disaster in general. Cash on hand can save you some heartache if electric grids go down in a natural disaster. This is a man-made disaster. The warning is intended for the worst-case scenario Israel seems to be preparing for.
I hope this ends in many words and a couple of long nights with coffee. But it was an essential update on the other front of the war.
One more thing: Fatah is also distancing itself from Iran. This is flying way under the radar with our news services.