Film Room: Gavin Brindley's Post-Season and NHL Debut
A microstat and film breakdown of what the Blue Jackets are getting, and can expect, in their 2023 2nd Round Pick
Gavin Brindley recently signed his ELC and the Blue Jackets had him burn a year for his debut. Largely, the public sphere seems to have mixed opinions about the quality of the player, so I’ll go ahead and take us through the stats in relation to historic production before moving onto some of his tape in the Frozen Four and his NHL debut.
Brindley is a 5’9” player who, in his Blue Jackets debut, was listed at 175 lbs. He’s largely a RW but has split time in the middle of the ice this past season at Michigan. At the NHL, he’s likely a winger but one who is well versed in all forward positions and will readily fill whatever position that the game-state dictates.
In this article, I’ll give a full breakdown of the tape from his final three games in the NCAA Championship tournament as well as his highlights and important plays in his NHL debut. After that, I’ll go into some historical production data and hand-tracked stats from Mitch Brown’s tracking project across his NCAA Draft Year and most recent performance at World Juniors.
At the end, I’ll provide three YouTube videos featuring each all of his shifts in the final three games of the NCAA championship should you be more interested in long-form viewing of his game.
Quick Hits
Potential High-end Complementary Player
Neutral Zone Accelerant (Pace, Off-Puck Timing)
High-level Compete, Drive and Commitment: Plays Bigger than his Size
Dangerous Shot, Complementary Passing
It remains to be seen what level of offensive production Brindley will bring to the NHL but it would be foolish to put a hard-cap on such a productive player at the NCAA level.
The Tape
Thanks to his participation in the end of season NCAA championship tournament, we have access to a treasure trove of valuable film of Gavin Brindley competing at the highest level of competition available to him.
Additionally, I’ve cut the tape from his NHL debut where he displayed many of the same skills that got him drafted in the second round and had the Blue Jackets Front Office eager to sign him to his ELC.
Recoveries, Battles and Defense
One aspect that certainly endeared Brindley to the Blue Jackets Front Office is his commitment to defensive details and his skill in puck recoveries in battles.
Constant Movement and Early Puck Recoveries in the offensive zone
Leveraging his frame to take away strength from bigger players
High motor and constant anticipation
He may be small but he understands leverage. He seeks to cut through hands and get his low center of gravity into early contact. This means that bigger defenders can have a large time pushing him off the puck and pinning him to boards.
Furthermore, he’s a constant-motion type player which usually gives him first priority for movement to the boards to recover pucks.
Gavin Brindley was a high-minute penalty killer and played nearly every minute against the empty-net while his team was defending leads in the Mighigan State and North Dakota games. He has firmly earned Head Coach Brandon Naurato’s trust and I don’t think it will be long before the same applies to any Blue Jacket Head Coach.
Transition, Off-Puck Movement and Shooting
Fans are, perhaps, more excited about Gavin Brindley’s offensive capabilities, which are primarily:
Extremely High Pace of Play
Constant Movement Off-puck, with Interior Drive
Neutral Zone Spacing and Blue-Line Timing
Teammate Awareness and Tactical Empathy
Diverse Shooting Toolbox, Good Passing
Gavin Brindley is a well-rounded offensive player who prefers to beat opposition defenses with speed and he has it in spades. Not only does he move quickly himself but he also seeks to become available to teammates early so that the entire team plays at a higher pace.
He’s an energizer bunny who’s constantly moving between checks and stressing the defense. While puck-recoveries were covered above they are a hallmark of his constant motion teammate boosting style.
Here, he wins a battle for the puck off of the lost faceoff. While his team ultimately loses it, they earn it back and Brindley’s anticipation gives his defenseman an easy and, perhaps more importantly, obvious option across the ice. From there, he threatens with pace and improves his shot location into the middle. He misses the net, which is certainly unfortunate, but it’s a dangerous opportunity.
We’ll cover more in the stats later, but Brindley’s capacity to fight to create time and space for his teammates, whether through pick plays or threatening the space behind defensemen, should make him valuable on any line.
That, and his diverse approach to creating offense, make him a nearly perfect 3rd man on any type of line. He can, and will, play defense, forecheck, hunt pucks, go to the net, offer weakside support, skate hard to threaten the defense, pass the puck and shoot the puck.
Here, Brindley plays beneath the goal line, recovers the puck and starts the transition at a high pace. He prioritizes pace over control and it pays dividends. While it doesn’t feel clean or preferred, the NHL isn’t always going to allow players to skate with the puck through perfect breakouts.
His pace threatens the Michigan State defense and he wins the chipped puck. He gets the puck before Artyom Levshunov partially because of his built speed and Levshunov’s poor pivot but also because he cuts through the hands of Levshunov, the much bigger player, to prevent him from being able to utilize his size and strength advantage.
From there, he plays through the chaos and finds Rutger McGroarty in space with the puck. McGroarty has his shot saved and Brindley is crashing the crease for an open-net chance. He misses, again unfortunate, but you can see how effective offensively he is through sheer will.
His perhaps most important skill is his capacity to time the blue line in transition. While he has excellent cross-lane ice-stretching skills himself, whether finding the pass or moving so he can receive it, he’s often better as the “second-player” on entries.
What does this mean? Well, the hallmark of his scoring has often been his move to the middle rush shooting. Why does he get so many of these opportunities you ask? Because he times the blue-line incredibly well and attacks the defense with depth. His teammates don’t often have to work to pass through defenders because he’s adjusted his route so that they can’t.
Often, it’s with speed after the blue-line. Because he gets far into the zone after entry so early, the defense has to either: 1. get beat backdoor for a tap-in 2. sag off to compensate. When Brindley reads the second option, he slows up and finds space for a pass after the entry. When he does that, he has an excellent drag wrist shot that pops off his stick from the middle of the ice, as we saw above in the first clip.
Frank Nazar is the star of the show here but Brindley’s pace, timing, availability and shooting are as equally important for this goal.
Similarly, watch this clip as he fights for second options with Nazar.
The clip starts with excellent forward skating and Brindley kills the entry and finishes his check. He reads secure possession and is eager to stretch the zone. Unfortunately, Michigan fails to exit but they gain the puck pack before anything too dangerous happens.
Brindley stretches the zone wide and attacks with pace, offering an option for the carrying Nazar. Nazar skates into the offered support and Brindley delays at the line. While Brindley misses his creative passing attempt, Nazar recovers and this offers a chance for Brindley to show his interior drive. He slips between checks and gets a high-danger slot shot.
NHL Debut
At the NHL level, we saw many of the same attributes that drove Brindley’s success in the NCAA. His weakside availability in transition was ever present as was his high-pace and speed on pucks leading to recoveries. He disrupted a Brent Burns retrieval and used his motion and puck-support threat to recover his own dump-in.
His motion after entries didn’t lead to any shots but he threatened the defense with creative routes to create layers and depth in the rush attack.
In a couple of instances, he used his awareness of leverage to protect the puck from bigger players while moving through dangerous areas of the ice.
What can the Blue Jackets Expect and when?
While it’s fair to question how high-end Brindley’s offensive production can be, he’ll prove an interesting case-study in development if he is added to the full time roster next year.
He’s defensively responsible and highly competitive. He plays with pace and earns extra possessions. This should mean he quickly earns a coaches trust and from there he can potentially leverage those early-won minutes to continue to hone his offensive game.
If he doesn’t improve offensively, he should still prove an excellent running mate to a talented rush forward but who make lack the moment-to-moment execution that leads to high point totals. While his size may preclude his being a linemate to Johnny Gaudreau, reuniting him with Adam Fantilli or offering a further pacey presence as a partner to Kent Johnson should offer the CBJ coaching staff plenty of options.
His off-puck player and neutral zone acceleration isn’t something that the Blue Jackets have much of on the roster. Adam Fantilli is legitimately the best. Though Marchenko and Laine are certainly more talented, Brindley may be the best at uplifting and supporting his teammates.
It’s in this timing and supportive playstyle that I think Brindley can potentially offer so much. Working with elite players is a skillset in and of itself and his ability to understand the perspective of his teammates will pay significant dividends over the course of his career. Not only will he work on the ice but he’ll also talk out ideas and ask questions after shifts.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Brindley made the NHL roster out of training camp, especially as part of a third-line with Kent Johnson if the Blue Jackets have a strong desire to deploy Cole Sillinger in a matchup role. From there, I could see him quickly earning ice-time up the roster should Marchenko or Laine underperform.
Most likely, Brindley needs some time to cook in the AHL where he can learn to mix-up speeds and develop more on-stick play-driving. Either way, there aren’t necessarily bad options for the young energizer bunny.
Comparables
NHL comparables for someone of Brindley’s size aren’t easy to come by. That being said, there are perhaps a few uncanny similarities with a player that many Blue Jackets fans know and love: Cam Atkinson.
Atkinson produced 53 points in 42 games for Boston College in his D+2 (Brindley just finished his D+1, more on the historical production later), and currently clocks in at the same weight as Gavin Brindley.
It’s safe to say that Gavin Brindley is ahead of the curve in terms of well roundedness, intensity and perhaps skating top-speed but peak-Cam Atkinson might not be far off in terms of impact. The link above, on Atkinson’s name, features a breakdown of some of the attributes that make him a successful partner to high-quality players.
If Brindley continues to add layers to his game, his style of play, that of off-puck support combined with intensity and defensive reliability, he might call to mind someone like Arturri Lehkonen.
He can play with good players and wield his tactical empathy to buy them extra time and space. His skill set’s fluidity means he can mold his game and flex his responsibilities to their skillsets as well. Lehkonen can play up and down Colorado’s lineup, his movement through the neutral zone often serves to unlock the more rush-oriented players (Drouin, Mittelstadt) and his forechecking and puck winning supports do-it-all players like Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen as well.
Ultimately, I wouldn’t be surprised if he renews his partnership with Adam Fantilli and the two continue to develop layers to their style at the NHL level. If Fantilli becomes a dominant play driver and power forward, I don’t see any reason Brindley couldn’t become his Jake Guentzel equivalent. That’s a lofty comparison, though, one which would certainly require the honing of Brindley’s puck-poise.
If Brindley continues to develop offensively, Viktor Arvidsson works as a comparable. He’ll have to hone his pace to a fine point while adding in a change-up dimension but we can’t write-off his excellent D+1 and World Juniors production.
At the end of the day, don’t read too much into comparables. Gavin Brindley will be Gavin Brindley and not any other player. He will be on his own journey and we’ll have to allow him that rather than pigeon-hole him based on size or preconceived ideas.
All-in-all, Gavin Brindley looks like he’ll be the type of player that talented players love to play with and that coaches love to put on the ice. Not a bad player to be adding to the Blue Jackets young wave.
The Data
From here, I’ll move away from video work and into some of the historical production and hand-tracked data from Mitch Brown’s prospect tracking project.
If you continue reading, you’ll find the data that helps support Brindley’s performance as a great partner for high-end talent and how his performance ranks within historical outcomes.
Draft Year Production in NCAA — Since 2010-11, min. 10 games, sorted by Points/Game
In terms of historic production in the NCAA in his draft year, Gavin Brindley put up 38 points in 41 games good for 9th in P/G since 2010-11. There isn’t a large sample of forwards who play in the NCAA in their draft year, nearly all of which have come very recently and nearly all of whom were more productive.
Notably, he’s behind Kent Johnson and Matty Beniers but ahead of Tage Thompson and Brady Tkachuk. It would be foolish to say he has the ceiling of either of those very toolsy, very large players but it’s not nothing.
Similarly, he had a surge of production when place on a line with Adam Fantilli. It’s not necessarily a bad thing that he produced when placed on a line with a talented player, and the production surge preceded the placement, but it does perhaps shed light on his performance in relation to some of the more solo players like Matthew Wood, Tage Thompson and Brady Tkachuk.
In his draft year, Brindley rated out as a sort of Jack-of-all-Trades who stood out particularly with his passing, off-puck assists and zone entries but who struggled to be involved in a high-degree of the on-ice offense (xP1 Involvement %) and who didn’t do much to create zone-exits.
This profile largely places him as a wing. No surprise, he actually was. Still, his defensive plays/CA are quite good for a draft eligible player let alone one playing in a league as good as the NCAA.
From a pure offensive perspective, he’s a balanced creator. I wouldn’t necessarily call him a playmaker but he certainly has the passing skill to complement his interior-driven rush shooting. He’s got a balanced shooting toolkit, can one-time the puck and change the angles of on-stick releases, but he’s not overpowering.
Largely, these are good things. He isn’t one-dimensional and has the tools to select the most dangerous option.
I’m not totally convinced of his Ctr Entry Rel% being so low but that perhaps points to Michigan’s overall team controlled entry rate. Adam Fantilli posted worse entry numbers, Mackie Samoskevich was around the same and the team also featured a dominant transition defenseman in Luke Hughes.
Brindley generated quite a lot of controlled entries in his time on ice. Either way, that’s a good thing and is indicative of his excellent transition pace. His post-entry movement is quite good and he’s constantly seeking to create layers and depth in rush attacks.
His Cross-Lane Plays/60 (defined as: The number of times a player successfully passes cross-ice, or across the dot lane) is evidence that he seeks to change sides often, something that the Blue Jackets certainly ask of their wingers on breakouts. Changing sides asks the opposition neutral zone structure to move a lot and opens up the middle of the ice for follow-up plays. It’s a valuable skill and necessary for rush creation in the NHL.
The stand-out metric for Gavin Brindley, however, is off-puck assists, defined as:
How often a player successfully creates space for a passing or shooting lane, mostly commonly by completing a middle lane drive or providing a moving screen
This would suggest that Gavin Brindley is an excellent player to have post-entry and within offensive structures. He commonly works to create more space for his teammates and help enhance their dangerous shots.
Here, I’ve plotted his Off-Puck Assists/60 along with Game Score/60, so we can get an idea of how he stands within that draft class. He was the best at Off Puck Assists and among the top cohort in terms of overall Game Score as well.
How important are Off-Puck Assists/60? Unfortunately, I don’t have a great answer. Mitch Brown only started tracking the metric in 22-23 so we don’t have any comparables for some simple napkin math. Still, what it means, in the very least, is that Gavin Brindley is aware of the benefits of his movement to his teammates. He’s reading the game and understanding it from their perspective.
Really, that’s just a lot of words to say he was an excellent value pick at 34 overall but it helps us paint a picture of why he may be so valuable to an NHL lineup. These stats(specifically off-puck assists, defensive plays, cross-lane players and a balanced offensive skillset), along with his tape, tell us that he’s got the potential to be an excellent partner for high quality players.
Draft Year +1 Production in NCAA — Since 2010-11, min. 10 games, sorted by Points/Game
In his Draft Year + 1, this past season, Brindley now has some more competition within which to distinguish himself. Rather than having the 9th best season since 2010-2011, he “falls” to 11th best in P/G with 53 points in 40 games. Only 9 players have reached 50 points in their Draft + 1 season.
This puts him just behind prolific NHL scorers like Clayton Keller, Brock Boeser and Dylan Larkin. It puts him ahead of recent high draft picks like Cutter Gauthier, Matty Beniers and even Kent Johnson.
So what do we make of this? Well, it’s hard to say specifically. In 2023-2024, he didn’t have a bona-fide superstar inflating his stats so you could certainly say he came by them honestly. He was named BIG player of the year over his teammates McGroarty and defenseman Seamus Casey.
At times, Brindley lined up as a Center, and very often he was already doing Center things, especially in the defensive zone. Still, he ultimately struggled in games where he played center largely because he hasn’t quite figured out small area transition passing. He started both the North Dakota and Michigan State games as a center but only found success when Frank Nazar was brought to center his line and Naurato moved away from Brindley in the middle entirely in the Boston College game (which was probably his best from a chance creation perspective).
Unfortunately, Mitch Brown hasn’t tracked any Michigan games for the 2023-2024 season, choosing to focus on draft eligible players. If there is an update and we have access to a Brindley player card, I’ll happily compose an update.
He doesn’t necessarily have the pure scoring tools and instincts of players like Clayton Keller or Brock Boeser. He is a talented shooter but prefers blinding pace over poise and control. Whether that sets him up with a future 1-2 counterpunch (pace into delay or speed/change-up mode-switching) or simply turns him into a high-motor forechecker is something that will make the difference for his NHL career.
He found the most offensive success when placed on a super-line with Rutger McGroarty and Frank Nazar though they (at least he and Nazar) spent much of the season on separate lines. Brindley’s partnership with Nazar didn’t stop there either, it was also on full display at the World Juniors on the way to a Gold Medal.
World Juniors 2023
At the World Juniors, Gavin Brindley scored 10 points in 7 games, tying him for 4th in the tournament and 2nd on team USA with Gabe Perrault and behind Cutter Gauther.
That is not insignificant production. He, along with the Boston College line of Perrault-Smith-Leonard, was one of the younger forwards on the roster and finished as one of the highest producers. Notable players like Cutter Gauthier, Frank Nazar, Jimmy Snuggerud, Isaac Howard and Rutger McGroarty are all in their D+2 years.
While we don’t have access to his NCAA tracked data, we do for World Juniors.
Here, Gavin Brindley doesn’t grade out as well as his linemate and inferior-producer in Frank Nazar (who had 8 points, all assists, in 7 games). Still, in early games these two combined for some absolutely lethal pace that pretty much all of the teams could not match.
While Gavin Brindley’s production, 6 goals and 4 assists, certainly stood out it appears that Frank Nazar was the one driving the bus. Largely, this makes sense, Nazar was the older player who played the center position.
Still, we can see that Brindley was more successful in defending and unlocked some of Nazar’s transition game with his cross-lane plays. Brindley didn’t do too much work in exiting the zone but afterwards did an excellent job of enabling the creativity of Frank Nazar and finishing of Isaac Howard.
I can’t be sure why his Ctrl Entry Rel% is so different, but it should be noted that both are similar in pure volume.
In this situation, Brindley was a choosey and efficient finisher showed both by his greater xG/60 than Shots/60 and his 6 goals in 7 games.
Here are all of Brindley’s goals from the World Juniors. Notice throughout how often he seeks to improve his shots by driving the interior of the ice. He’s not waiting with feet planted and overpowering the goalie, he’s getting to dangerous ice.
Notice too, especially on his first goal, how he’s searching for advantages and passing lanes away from the puck. Very reminiscent of Cam Atkinson’s work on the powerplay.
Really, it’s more of the same. Brindley molded his game to match Frank Nazar’s and was a partner in a dominant performance, much as he was with Adam Fantilli. For Nazar, he played defense, moved the puck cross-lane and shot the puck. For Fantilli, he was similarly engaged defensively but entered the zone with control as defenses gameplanned for Fantilli, and leaned on his passing as a creator of offense.