Data Shows: The Public Is Telling Dems How To Win On Guns - Will They Listen?
Democrats running on reforming gun laws are getting caught up in policy details. There's a much simpler message.
Two weeks ago, our inaugural newsletter was about how much larger the online conversation about abortion was compared to other political topics, especially after the news broke about the imminent reversal of Roe v. Wade.
Then came Uvalde.
While abortion remains a huge topic online, and will certainly get another massive bump once the official SCOTUS decision is handed down, as of right now, the conversation about guns is twice as large, mostly due to the impact of the shooting at Robb Elementary in Texas.
Here is the trajectory of conversation growth for the online conversations about guns, abortion, and (for comparison), the conversation about the President (typically the largest conversation about politics in America):
Some elected Democrats sensed this, and immediately shifted into policy-mode with regulatory answers to our gun problem:
The problem is, every single policy proposal immediately forces Democrats into a position of defending a specific new regulation or approach, and the regulations capable of passing often seem deeply inadequate in the face of the problem.
But the American public isn’t talking about policy solutions online - at least, not that much. However, by sheer coincidence, there was another event that was scheduled to take place a few days after the shooting occurred, an event that become the focus of the public’s anger online. The organization that hosted that event was mentioned even more than the two major political parties in the gun conversation, an organization that is more directly responsible for the flow of money from the gun industry to politicians than any other group: the NRA.
The NRA went forward with its planned convention, in the same state, and a mere three days after 19 children and 2 teachers were massacred.
The result was this:
The NRA was mentioned online substantially more often than the Republican Party, and nearly 10 times as often as the Democratic Party.
And according to Google, searches for “NRA” skyrocketed, with more than twice as many searches that week than any week over the past 4 years:
The American public is stating the obvious: our gun problem is an NRA problem. As long as this powerful industry lobby is putting pressure on politicians, we can never have an honest political debate about guns in America.
But don’t both parties take donations from the NRA? Well, yes. But the contributions aren’t exactly equivalent:
$10,612 among 9 different candidates is a paltry sum - one that Democrats can easily forgo. The NRA has placed virtually all their bets on the Republican Party.
Gallup hasn’t published approval data for the NRA since 2019, but that year, the organization crossed a threshold, with more Americans disapproving than approving of the NRA for the first time since 1997. But social listening can show us what polls have yet to capture - that the NRA is the biggest villain in the gun conversation, and Democrats who want to campaign on gun reforms should focus their energy directly on the influence of the NRA - and force the GOP to answer to every American parent for doing the NRA’s bidding. Make Republicans own every donation, or pressure them to return each one. Remind parents that gun manufacturers profit after every mass shooting. Use phrases like “blood money.” And do it from now until November. The GOP loves to associate Democrats with “extremists” on the left - they know better than anyone how powerful that message can be.
Republicans and Democrats can find common ground on guns, but not if the gun industry is sitting at the table. Get the NRA out of politics, and then we can have a real conversation, but until then, gun manufacturers will continue to have veto power over our the safety of our children.
America is ready. Are Democrats?