The Largest Country in Indochina is Teetering on the Brink of Collapse
Myanmar's military junta could unravel in the coming months, what comes next?
Beginning in 2011, Myanmar began a decade-long series of democratic, economic, and anti-corruption reforms. This ended abruptly on February 1, 2021 when Myanmar’s military deposed and imprisoned the elected civilian head of government, Aung San Suu Kyi. In a perfect distillation of the twenty-first century, a fitness influencer went viral for streaming her workout while unbeknownst to her a military convoy thundered towards seats of power in the capital Naypyidaw behind her:
The junta was immediately met with popular street demonstrations which they violently dispersed by indiscriminately massacring peaceful, pro-democracy protesters. The military then proceeded to torture dissidents, raze entire villages to the ground, and restrict freedom of movement. Ever since, they’ve been battling a multi-ethnic patchwork of insurgents determined to end their rule and restore a civilian government. After almost three years of combat, it looks like that dream may become reality. The BBC recently reported on the resistance’s October campaign:
They have made dramatic progress. Entire army units have surrendered without a fight. The alliance say they have taken more than 100 military posts, and four towns, including the border crossing at Chinshwehaw, and Hsenwi, which straddles the road to Muse, the main gateway to China.
They have blown up bridges to prevent military reinforcements from being brought in, and have surrounded the town of Laukkaing, where many scam centres are run by families allied to the junta.
This is a well equipped, determined, and resourceful fighting force. Case in point: they’ve even become capable of manufacturing their own arms. International observers are increasingly noting the weakness of the junta and preparing for the real possibility of regime change in Indochina. Again from the BBC:
It is the most serious setback suffered by the junta since it seized power in February 2021. After two-and-half years of battling the armed uprising it provoked with its disastrous coup, the military is looking weak, and possibly beatable.
A potential resistance victory has made some in the West quite uneasy. The Council on Foreign Relations issued a dire warning last week that the situation in Myanmar threatens to collapse into a failed state comprised of rampaging ethnic militias in a state of perpetual conflict:
It's time for outsiders to recognize that the Myanmar military is losing strength fast, and an internal collapse—or further major breakthroughs by the opposition forces—could lead to a situation in which the military disintegrates, as has happened in many other countries. But such a collapse, if not handled properly by both Burmese leaders in the exiled National Unity Government (NUG) and the leading, powerful ethnic militias, could also lead the country to disintegrate into a series of groups, lacking a common enemy, who could easily turn their guns on each other, creating total bloody chaos and completely gutting the remainder of the Myanmar state.
It’s easy to point to Syria, Libya, or Afghanistan in the recent years to bolster this argument but it’s not a foregone conclusion. In fact to the contrary, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest the resistance in Myanmar may be able to overcome the perils of victory should they successfully dislodge General Myint Swe and his military rule. The U.S. Institute for Peace has conducted six research projects in post-coup Myanmar and recently published four principal findings:
Fragmentation and warlordism are unlikely because the resistance is connected to communities and motivated by a desire for a new political paradigm.
Underlying social cohesion is stronger than perceived.
Shifts in political power and norms could enable a successful political dialogue where past peace processes have failed.
Positive shifts in intercommunal relations since the coup have diminished the potential for intercommunal violence and offer a better environment for dialogue.
This may be an overly optimistic assessment but it illustrates that the gloomy predictions from groups like CFR are not etched in stone. Myanmar is a massive multi-ethnic, religious, and linguistic state. Governing such a disparate population isn’t an easy undertaking but the National Unity Government offers a much better alternative to the disastrous rule of General Swe.
Sudan
A few weeks back, I wrote about the devastating ongoing civil war in Sudan. Since then Reuters has released a special report on the sexual violence endemic to the conflict. Fair warning: it’s incredibly difficult to read, but necessary to understand the scale of horror unfolding in east Africa. Sudan truly seems like hell on earth right now and the accounts are absolutely gut-wrenching:
Common patterns emerged from their descriptions. Nearly all said they were raped by multiple men. Eight of the women said their ethnicity was specifically invoked by their assailants. The men mentioned their Masalit identity, they said, or used ethnic slurs for the Masalit and other darker-skinned non-Arabs.
The tragedy being wrought on the Masalit by the RSF is horrific and criminally under-covered. While the world sets its collective gaze on the resumption of fighting in Gaza, the land of the Blue and White Niles is being painted red with the blood of innocent African civilians who deserve security, stability, and freedom from the threat of violent, ethnically targeted gang rapes.
Venezuela-Guyana
The December 3 Essequibo referendum passed yesterday as expected, priming Venezuela for a potential South American foray in to the current rules-free international disorder. This comes after the United Nations’ International Court of Justice ruled late last week that Venezuela must “refrain from taking any action which would modify the situation that currently prevails”.
On November 27, the U.S. sent the Army’s First Security Force Assistance Brigade to Guyana to hold two days of military readiness discussions and to presumably send a signal to Caracas that the West will not turn a blind eye to an invasion of the Essequibo region. That being said, it’s still hard to imagine the U.S. has the bandwidth to provide the kind of support a besieged Guyana would need after nearly two years of arming Ukraine coupled with the recent additional support for Israel’s campaign to eradicate Hamas.
Houthis
The U.S. military has confirmed the the oil tanker Central Park was indeed stormed by Somalis (who were successfully detained) rather than Yemen’s Houthis, and further stated that the responding U.S. vessel was not the target of a Houthi missile that landed nearby the unfolding scene. It’s still safe to assume Houthi attacks will continue both on Israel and U.S. forces in the region until the war with Hamas ends. Just yesterday they claimed responsibility for a drone attack on merchant vessels passing the Bab el-Mandeb strait in the Gulf of Aden (but stopped short of taking credit for the attack on the USS Carney which also came under fire).
While the U.S. slowly deliberates re-designating the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, Israel appears to have obliterated a Houthi weapons depot in the Yemeni capital and the United Kingdom has pledged to send a destroyer-class ship to the Red Sea to combat piracy and ensure free flow of trade in the crucial international waterway.
Kosovo-Serbia
Speaking of the Brits, they’ve also deployed troops to the Kosovo-Serbia border amid rising tensions between the Balkan states:
British troops are patrolling the Kosovo-Serbia border as part of a NATO peacekeeping presence being bolstered amid concern that the former wartime foes could return to open conflict following a series of violent incidents in recent months.
I’ll be keeping an eye on Kosovo-Serbia in 2024—this is quietly becoming yet another potential hotspot of inter-state violence. Russia also has long standing ties to the Serbs and a vested interest in sowing discord in the region (as they’re prone to doing everywhere). To wit: last week Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lamented at the OSCE that “Serbia was robbed of Kosovo [in 2008]”.
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