Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s State of the Strait Weekly Digest. Read more about this new project here.
Each week ASPI's China team tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, interference and espionage, information warfare, cyberwarfare, and lawfare.
Analysis and commentary from the ASPIteam is in ‘block quotes’ (the orange margins on the left). Please feel free to cite this newsletter as: State of the Strait #3, ASPI, 1 April 2025.
This edition covers the period: 25 March 2025 to 1 April 2025.
Citing national security, Taiwanese authorities have deported Chinese influencer Liu Zhenya ("Yaya") for supporting China's military actions against Taiwan. She faces a five-year residency ban. Two other Chinese women married to Taiwanese nationals also had their permits revoked for similar reasons and must leave by the end of March.
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai stressed that free speech does not protect advocacy threatening Taiwan’s sovereignty. Some Taiwanese civil groups are urging stricter immigration rules for Chinese spouses, citing espionage and propaganda risks.
It is worth noting that support for the unification of Taiwan and China — even through military means — is a view held by some Taiwanese as well.
On the horizon:
15-17 June: The G7 Leaders’ Summit in Alberta, Canada
9-18 July: Taiwan's ‘Han Kuang’ Military Exercises
By the numbers: This week’s incidents of coercion
Below are the incidents of coercion for the period: 25 March 2025 to 1 April 2025.
Military & paramilitary coercion
Taiwan navy ship and Chinese fishing boat collide, no injuries reported Reuters A Taiwanese navy landing ship and a Chinese fishing boat collided early on 27 March outside of restricted waters, and there were no injuries, the Taiwanese navy said. The Taiwanese landing ship, the Chung Ho, collided with the Chinese trawler ‘Minlianyu 61756’ shortly after midnight around 45 nautical miles (83 km) off Taiwan's Taichung port, which sits on the Taiwan Strait, and nine nautical miles outside of "restricted waters", the navy said in a statement.
For more on China’s use of military and paramilitary coercion, check out ASPI’s latest research project and interactive website ‘Pressure Points’—an online resource tracking the activity and behaviour of the People's Liberation Army in the Taiwan Strait and beyond.
Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan
Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).
Economic coercion
Sanctioning foreign companies for engagement with Taiwan
China unveils regulation on implementing anti-foreign sanctions law Global Times Chinese Premier Li Qiang has signed a State Council decree to unveil the regulation on implementing the anti-foreign sanctions law, comprising 22 articles, set to take effect on Monday, Xinhua News Agency reported on 24 March. The document includes content in areas such as improved countermeasures, detailed procedures, and strengthened departmental coordination … Such entities may face prohibitions or restrictions on participating in government procurement, tendering and bidding activities, as well as import-export operations involving goods, technologies or international service trade.
ASPI comment: This signals that China is likely going to step up its use of the anti-foreign sanctions law, which since its passage a few years ago has been invoked sparingly.
Corporate espionage or undermining business practices
Taiwan probes China chipmaker SMIC for allegedly poaching staff Bloomberg Taiwan is investigating whether China’s leading chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) illegally poached local engineers as part of an effort to access the island’s cutting-edge chip technology. SMIC set up a branch in Taiwan posing as a Samoa-based company and tried to hire local talent, prosecutors from Taiwan’s Investigation Bureau said 28 March in a statement.
ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.
ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.
Taiwan says teacher's CCTV interview inappropriate Taiwan News The Mainland Affairs Council on 27 March called it “really inappropriate” for a high school teacher to accept an interview with Chinese state-run media and repeat CCP talking points. During an interview with CCTV, Alice Ou, a Chinese literature teacher at Taipei First Girls’ High School, criticized President Lai Ching-te's classification of China as a "hostile external force," per Liberty Times. Ou said such a stance makes it difficult for her and those with relatives to visit them in China.
Chiang Wan-an, Hou You-yi, and Chang Shan-cheng support Alice Ou for freedom of speech [蔣萬安、侯友宜、張善政 挺區桂芝言論自由] United Daily News 聯合報 When a teacher at Taipei First High School, Alice Ou, was reported and criticised by Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council and Ministry of Education, the mayors of the three major cities in Taipei, New Taipei City, and Taoyuan expressed their support … Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an: “Our position is to respect the professional autonomy of teachers in teaching, while also firmly defending freedom of speech.”
ASPI Comment: Chiang Wan-an, Hou You-yi, and Chang Shan-cheng are all members of the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT).
Inside the CCP-funded travel groups looking to influence Taiwanese The Diplomat Through subtle manipulations, the CCP turns unsuspecting participants in these supposed tourist trips into ambassadors for its narrative. These travel groups, though varied in size and theme, all serve one purpose: to propagate China’s vision of cross-strait unity … Without realizing the risks, these Taiwanese tourists become pawns in a larger geopolitical game. The CCP’s infiltration into the Taiwanese understanding operates incrementally, one tour group at a time, eroding the boundaries that separate Taiwan from China.
ASPI Comment: Since the end of China’s highly restrictive Covid-19 lockdowns, Beijing has resumed regular hosting of united front–linked events targeting various sectors of Taiwanese society. In 2024, China’s united front efforts primarily targeted Taiwanese youth and online influencers, accounting for 34.9% of all observed united front-hosted events.
Espionage
Taiwanese soldiers guarding president’s office were spying for China The Washington Post Chinese espionage in Taiwan has reached new levels, analysts and officials say, after three soldiers responsible for guarding the Taiwanese president’s office were jailed for photographing and selling classified information. Three former members of a military battalion responsible for the security of the presidential building, as well as a soldier from a unit focused on information warfare, were sentenced to up to seven years in prison.
Narrative & information warfare
Bellicose language about Taiwan
Chinese influencer Yaya ordered to leave Taiwan after posting pro-China video Radio Free Asia Prominent Chinese influencer Liu Zhenya, also known as “Yaya,” left Taiwan on 25 March on orders from the Taiwanese government after she got in trouble for social media posts that appeared to support China’s use of force to take over Taiwan. In the video, she called the Chinese military drills “the most intimidating and aggressive exercises ever,” and expressed support for defending national sovereignty … This video was later reposted on the official Facebook account of Taiwan.cn, a media outlet under the Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing.
2 'military unification' Chinese spouses must leave Taiwan by March 31 Focus Taiwan Two Chinese nationals whose marriage-based residence permits were revoked for advocating “military unification” with China must leave Taiwan by the end of March, the National Immigration Agency (NIA) announced 26 March. The two women, known by their internet names Xiao Wei and En Qi on the Chinese social media platform Douyin, must leave Taiwan by 31 March or face forced deportation in accordance with the law, according to a news statement issued by the NIA.
ASPI Comment: Beijing is increasingly employing the derogatory term “Green Terror 绿色恐怖” to criticise the administration and policies of Taiwan's pan-Green coalition, led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which currently holds Taiwan’s presidency. While the DPP's official colour is green, Beijing's deliberate use of “terror 恐怖” invokes a provocative comparison with Taiwan's historical “White Terror 白色恐怖,” a period of oppressive martial law imposed by the Kuomintang from 1949 to 1987.
Taiwan's various circles criticised the “green terror” and demanded that Lai Qingde and the DPP authorities stop before it is too late [台湾各界痛批“绿色恐怖” 要求赖清德和民进党当局悬崖勒马] Xinhua Xinhua reporter: Since Lai Ching-te made his vicious “independence” remarks and actions, including the so-called “17 strategies”, the “Taiwan independence” forces and the DPP have been maliciously reporting on him, labeling those who oppose “Taiwan independence” and hope for cross-strait peace as “pro-China”, and subjecting them to political persecution and cyber violence. In response, people from all walks of life on the island are worried that Taiwan will fall into “terrorist politics and green dictatorship”, and have voiced criticism and demanded that Lai Ching-te and the DPP authorities pull back from the brink.
ASPI Comment: Opposition parties, including the KMT, are already adopting this rhetoric, portraying the Lai administration’s actions—particularly on national security—as resembling “a dictatorship” and overstepping the boundaries of Taiwan’s democratic norms.
Falsely portraying Taiwan or others as the aggressor or obstacle to peace
The U.S. won't protect Taiwan, it only endangers it: expert CGTN "Do not think the U.S. will protect you. The U.S. will get you into a lot of trouble," says Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, addressing the politicians across the Taiwan Straits. Sachs also notes that the U.S. should stop sending armaments to the island region, as such actions serve merely as provocations, heightening risks for all parties involved.
ASPI Comment: Jeffrey Sachs is an American economist and public policy analyst. He is also known to express views that some perceive as aligning with positions held by the CCP, including questioning the application of the term “genocide” concerning China's treatment of the Uyghur population.
Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China
Whoever challenges the one-China principle would be undermining the international order and threatening world peace, and should be sternly warned off Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the United States Xie Feng, ambassador to Washington said: In the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation jointly released by China, the United States and other main victorious countries, it is clearly stipulated that all the territories Japan had stolen from the Chinese, such as Taiwan, shall be restored to China. This has ever since been an integral part of the post-war international order. Whoever challenges the one-China principle would be challenging international law, undermining the international order and threatening world peace, and should be sternly warned off.
ASPI Comment: Xie Feng is misrepresenting some historical facts; the cross-Strait status quo is the result of a civil war, not a foreign invasion. The territories Japan had stolen from China, such as Taiwan, were in fact restored to the Republic of China in 1945. The government of the Republic of China still governs Taiwan to this day. Taiwan has never been under the control of the People’s Republic of China.
Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan
Media Watch: online users target Taiwan with rumors about its military Radio Free Asia In response, Chinese officials called Lai a “destroyer of cross-Straits peace” and a “creator of the crisis in the Taiwan Straits.” The heated exchange continued online, with some Chinese-speaking social media users spreading rumors about Taiwan’s military … Separately,some Chinese-speaking users also claimed that Taiwan would put soldiers who refused to participate in reservist training on trial under the military court system, following Lai’s proposal to reinstate it. But this claim is also false.
Cyberwarfare
Cyber vulnerabilities on Taiwan’s critical infrastructure
Hi Sharp accused of using China parts in 'Made in Taiwan' cameras Taiwan News Hi Sharp Electronics, a publicly-listed surveillance camera manufacturer, was charged with importing components from China for local assembly, receiving “Made in Taiwan” qualifications for government procurement projects … A Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau investigation identified Hi Sharp products as a security risk, even finding the company's products connected to a cloud server in China.
U.S. bill offering funding to friends of Taiwan to be reintroduced Focus Taiwan A United States congressman on Monday said he is planning to reintroduce a bill to support international development projects in countries with official or strong unofficial relations with Taiwan. In his remarks, the Illinois representative noted that China has been engaged in a long-term effort to buy off Taiwan's diplomatic allies, while also using economic coercion to pressure its unofficial friends.
Challenging other countries’ One-China policies
Japanese side bears historical responsibilities on Taiwan question: Chinese FM Wang Yi Global Times Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi talked about the Taiwan question with Japanese political figures during his visit to Japan, highlighting that the four political documents between China and Japan have made clear provisions on the Taiwan question, which must be strictly implemented without ambiguity or backsliding.
ASPI Comment: Beijing appears particularly agitated by the appointment of a former senior officer from Japan’s Self-Defense Forces as an adviser to Taiwan’s Cabinet, viewing it as an expansion—rather than a desired contraction—of Japan’s One-China policy.
Chinese mainland denounces certain countries' unwarranted comments on Taiwan question Xinhua Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office on 26 March voiced firm opposition to certain countries' unwarranted comments on the Taiwan question, which grossly interfered in China's internal affairs. Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, made the remarks at a press conference while responding to a query regarding the joint statement of the recent G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting, which expressed support for Taiwan's participation in international organizations.
Testing Taiwan’s security partners
Japan draws up plan to evacuate 120,000 Okinawa islanders near Taiwan The Strait Times Japan on 27 March unveiled a plan to evacuate about 120,000 people from southern islets near Taiwan – regarded by China as its territory – in case of an emergency … With tensions between China and Taiwan escalating, the Japanese government said it plans to conduct field drills for evacuations from the southern prefecture of Okinawa from April 2026.
Taiwan Affairs Office launches column for reporting malicious acts of ‘Taiwan independence’ henchmen Global Times The Taiwan Affairs Office of China's State Council launched a column on 26 March for reporting the malicious acts of “Taiwan independence” henchmen and accomplices persecuting Taiwan compatriots. The column is set up as a floating window on the homepage of the office's official website. It also publishes a reporting email address, jubao@suremail.cn, providing a platform for those who have been oppressed or persecuted, or those who have relevant information, to seek help.
China sentences Taiwan-based publisher to 3 years in prison NHK The Chinese government says a court has sentenced a Taiwan-based book publisher to three years in prison for “inciting secession.” Li Yanhe, the editor-in-chief of a Taiwanese publishing firm, went missing after traveling to China in March 2023. He was born in China. The Chinese government later announced that Li was being investigated by anti-espionage authorities.
For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.
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Each week ASPI's China team tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, interference and espionage, information warfare, cyberwarfare, and lawfare.
