Gunfight at the Tariff Corral: How to Win No Matter What Happens
With these moves, you'll dodge the bullets ... and keep building wealth ...
Last week, I shared an "Investing Need-to-Know for Trump 2.0," highlighting five key storylines I'm tracking — each paired with specific investment ideas.
One of these storylines is what I'm dubbing the “New Art of the Deal Age."
And as we’re watching in real time on that “stage” known as Washington, those “deals” aren’t just company-to-company transactions. We’re also watching some geopolitical showdowns where if the actors ask “what’s my motivation here,” the answer is simple …
Tariffs.
We’re talking about “duties” or taxes the Trump Administration is slapping on imports.
As most of us remember from our Econ 101 courses, tariffs are the “stick” half of the “carrot-and-stick” strategy for protecting U.S. industries and (attempting) to level the playing field against trade practices viewed as unfair. And as I can tell you from my years covering the global defense business — as well as the Cold War and the current New Cold War — there’s often a national-security component to tariff strategies.
U.S. President Donald Trump is using them as a real-time strategic negotiating tool — a way of wrestling other countries into immediate concessions.
A prime example: When former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visited Mar-a-Lago in November. This visit followed President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect his first day in office.
The start date was subsequently delayed to Feb. 1.
We also saw this tactic in action over the weekend — in a standoff between the United States and Colombia. Two military planes carrying deported Colombians were denied landing rights. President Trump responded with tariff threats. And President Gustavo Petro countered with threats of his own.
By late Sunday night, Colombia agreed to accept the deported people.
Here’s where it gets interesting …
The Good, the Bad, and the Uncertain
This all demonstrates how President Trump's dealmaking strategy is forcing world leaders (and perceived rivals) to the negotiating table. However, according to the latest Wall Street Journal report, President Trump’s advisors are now pushing for those Canada and Mexico tariffs to commence Saturday — figuring this “pain first” tactic will definitely force other countries to negotiate.
This gunfighter approach underscores another of the storylines from my “Trump 2.0” report — the rise of uncertainty and volatility.
That’s not a political statement … it’s an investing one. It’s just a fact that this makes it tougher to “handicap” if (or when) tariffs will be imposed, what countries will be targeted, what the specific tariff “target” will be — or how long they’ll last and what the “real” impact will be.
Fact is, those long-term effects are being ardently debated.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget believes that a 10% tariff on China — and a 25% tariff each on Mexico and Canada — would generate $1.5 trillion from 2025 to 2035. But it acknowledges those estimates are to “convey the magnitude of their effects rather than precise scores.”
The Tax Foundation estimates 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China, if implemented Feb. 1, would “shrink economic output by 0.4 percent and increase taxes by $1.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034 on a conventional basis.”
And because of the “death of the global economy” and the death of Adam Smith’s “comparative advantage” — another storyline detailed in my “Trump 2.0” report — inflation could reignite as the prices of so many consumer goods resume their climb.
In the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey installment published Jan. 24, 62% of respondents believed inflation would jump to 5% because of high tariff rates. But at the recent World Economic Forum, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon countered with a pro-tariffs view, saying “if it’s a little inflationary but good for national security, so be it, get over it.”
How to Be That Wealth Builder
That sure is a lot to consider … right?
The question you have to ask is: Will money collected by tariffs and the domestic jobs created exceed or fall short of the possible gouge to the economy, any increase in taxes, the loss of domestic jobs powered by more-costly (or lost) imports and any surge in inflation?
That’s complicated.
And we like to keep things simple.
One thing’s for sure: This geopolitical dealmaking will spool up uncertainty.
That uncertainty will ignite emotion-driven volatility.
And that whipsawing will accelerate Wealth Killer behavior … because we know that Wealth Killers:
Give in to emotion and abandon their plans (or don't have a plan at all).
Bring a “DrafKings bettering mindset” to the financial markets.
Embrace “trading” over “investing.”
Abandon the long haul and succumb to the short-term.
Turn into market timers.
Buy high and sell low — the “ultimate no-no” and a wealth eviscerator over time.
And work to erase losses that stem from that approach … with “take-a-flyer” stocks and options speculation.
We don’t do that, because we’re Wealth Builders, who:
Focus on my No. 1 rule: “Know Thyself.”
Find the best storylines to find the best stocks.
Invest in companies and assets we understand.
Invest according to plan … and not by emotion.
Make time our ally — knowing that (over time) stocks go higher.
And “Accumulate” our way to wealth.
Moves to Review: Pick the Best for You
To follow the right path, consider income-generating stocks and silver; two “uncertainty shields.” (And I’ll throw in a bonus.)
If we see elevated prices — and the U.S. Federal Reserve said back in December that it doesn’t expect inflation to get down to its 2% target until next year — you’ll want “real income.” Whether we’re talking about income that puts money in your hands … or that you can use as the “raw material” for that Accumulate strategy … you’ll want to look at “cash flow” — how much ends up in your pocket (or brokerage account) after inflation, taxes, fees or other “afterthought” costs are backed out.
Here’s a list of companies with yields above 9% to help get you started.
Like gold, silver is viewed as a store of value, but it has a broader range of industrial uses and it is estimated around 60% of silver demand is driven by those industrial uses (solar panels, automobiles and medical applications).
In the first quarter of 2025, longtime friend and colleague Peter Krauth — of the Silver Stock Investor — sees silver jumping from its current price of $30.93 to $35 in the first quarter — a gain of 13%. And by the end of the year, he sees it crossing the $40 threshold.
But the biggest gains are for those who are patient and put time on their side, as Peter sees inflation and new investor interest fueling a $300 price rise in just five years.
In addition to owning physical silver, Peter also has two silver stocks he likes: Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) and Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYASF). You can find more of his insights on the type of silver he likes to buy and why he likes Wheaton and Aya here.
One other stock — an investment that let’s everyone else’s panic act as a wealth creator for you — is CBOE Global Markets Inc. (CBOE), an operator of financial exchanges, which includes the Chicago Board Options Exchange. It provides data analytics, trading tools and the technology for trading options, futures and other financial products. And it’s one of the largest clearinghouses for options trading. As such, you’ll win as trading grows — which it no doubt will as uncertainty climbs.
Buy some … be willing to accumulate more on any pullbacks … and put it away for years.
And for you SPC Premium members, remember that you have unlimited access to our Monday Morning Kickoff — which tells you what to watch in the week to come, a Model Portfolio that includes a total of 18 companies and assets (with accompanying Dossiers)for building wealth and our “Super 10” Special-Situation Model Portfolio.
We’re in this together.
And we want you to win.
See you next time;
Interesting that this "Trump Trade" report -- crafted well BEFORE the election -- largely holds true.
It's a testament to our belief system ... and our methodology ... that a lot of this still holds true.
https://stockpickerscorner.substack.com/p/as-experts-talk-trump-trade-heres
As part of our Trump Investing research, here's a report on "Trump 2.0" -- that's generated some very nice feedback ...
https://stockpickerscorner.substack.com/p/your-investing-need-to-know-for-trump