Golden Path aka "Goldilocks Growth Landing" Rally Continues
SPY looks to reach new highs this year
Was out for a 3-day wedding past weekend in NYC area
Recap
✅ Forecasted that this rally will continue and rip the bears faces off
I should have emphasized Golden Path more as it’s Soft Landing PLUS Goldilocks where the economy still grows while inflation comes down and we avoid a recession—that is EXTREMELY BULLISH and I believe what is being priced in
✅ We’re back to GREED, which I forecasted would happen:
New 52-Week Highs vs New 52-Week Lows
NYSE New 52-Week Highs: XX vs New 52-Week Lows: XX
Nasdaq New 52-Week Highs: XX vs New 52-Week Lows: XX
McClellan Oscillator
New Highs - New Lows
Breadth charts above reflect J.C. Parets’ point below
*This my personal blog and is not investment advice—I am not a financial advisor but a random person on the internet who does not have a license in finance or securities. This is my personal Substack which consists of opinions and/or general information. I may or may not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Don’t listen to anyone online without evaluating and understanding the risks involved and understand that you are responsible for making your own investment decisions.
Today
The majority of the economic reports like GDP, jobs, etc. are showing no recession yet—however, those reports are not leading indicators.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a monthly publication that forecasts the performance of the US economy. The LEI is a leading indicator that can predict turning points in the business cycle by about seven months. The LEI is made up of 10 indicators that cover a range of economic activity, including:
Job growth
Housing construction
Stock prices
Average weekly hours in manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
ISM new order index
Deflation will be positive news (for now) since it’ll be good news that Inflation is coming down quickly.
A bullish setup for Visa V 0.00%↑
Interesting notes from Andy on why crypto rallied since the Gaza War broke out.
Want to keep an open mind to bears and the data they like to point out
This productivity increase (output per worker produces) is bullish and why Goolsbee called for a Golden Path where inflation comes down with economic growth continuing, and we avoid recession.
Golden Path is more bullish than soft landing or goldilocks because it’s a “goldilocks growth landing”—so if our current path leads to the golden outcome, the stock market will make new ATHs.
Forecast
We’re back at Greed, Nvidia’s earnings, and FOMC minutes are tomorrow.
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