Recap
✅ The stock market is forward looking and stock prices correctly forecasted Golden Path and the strength in the economy the entire time (this was when most economist to business executives said we would likely enter into a recession. I have been informing readers “do not underestimate Golden Path” and how every recession / rates scare the past year were dip buying opportunities.
New 52-Week Highs vs New 52-Week Lows
NYSE New 52-Week Highs: 104 vs New 52-Week Lows: 31
Nasdaq New 52-Week Highs: 82 vs New 52-Week Lows: 143
This looks like continued bullish rotating which many tech winners have been consolidating the past 2 weeks
McClellan Oscillator was red on Friday
New Highs - New Lows made new lows on certain indices (see below)
*This my personal blog and is not investment advice—I am not a financial advisor but a random person on the internet who does not have a license in finance or securities. This is my personal Substack which consists of opinions and/or general information. I may or may not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Don’t listen to anyone online without evaluating and understanding the risks involved and understand that you are responsible for making your own investment decisions.
The Golden Age of AI
We could be in the midst of another decade or strong economic growth, low unemployment, low inflation, and overall economic prosperity due to a major technological boom—AI and the development of AGI.
Technological advancement since the early 2000s has kept inflation at bay for 2 decades and now with the AI boom, technology will continue to be a driving force to keep inflation low in addition to supporting economic expansion.
Per ChatGPT 4.0, apparently "Golden Path" isn't a standard term in economics so I couldn’t look up anything in the historic data. We are in unprecedented times as I have saying for months now.
However, the last decades where we saw a period of sustained economic growth, low unemployment, stable prices, and overall economic prosperity were:
The Post-World War II Boom (Late 1940s to Early 1970s): This period, often referred to as the "Golden Age" of capitalism, was marked by rapid economic growth, low unemployment, rising living standards, and relatively stable prices. It was fueled by post-war reconstruction, high consumer spending, and significant government investment in infrastructure and the military.
The Long 1990s (1991-2001): Characterized by a long economic expansion, this period saw significant technological advancements, particularly in the IT and communications sectors, which spurred productivity gains and economic growth. Unemployment reached its lowest levels in decades, inflation was controlled, and the stock market experienced a massive bull run, culminating in the dot-com bubble.
Mid-2000s (2003-2007): Although shorter and ending in the financial crisis of 2008, this period experienced strong economic growth, low unemployment, and rising home values, partly fueled by easy credit and significant financial speculation.
Technological Boom (2009-2020):
Disinflationary Pressures in Tech Goods and Services: The prices of technology goods and services often fell due to rapid improvements in technology and efficiency, contributing to the overall low inflation environment. For instance, the cost of computing power and data storage continued to decline, benefiting a wide range of industries.
Supply Chain and Logistics Optimization: Advancements in technology also improved supply chain and logistics operations, reducing costs associated with inventory management, transportation, and warehousing. This efficiency reduced the cost of goods sold, contributing to lower consumer prices.
Globalization Enhanced by Technology: The global integration of markets, facilitated by technology, meant that production could be outsourced to lower-cost countries, which helped keep prices low in developed economies. This period saw an increase in global trade and cross-border flows of capital, goods, and services, further exerting downward pressure on inflation.
The Age of AI (2022 - 2030): We are in this era now
SPX Quarterly Chart
What is unprecedented today is Golden Path + AI—I am leaning towards how transformation this can be for inflation and economic prosperity. We’re not only on a historic Golden Path but trail blazing with the AI boom.
Jobs Report Recap
With 300,000+ jobs added in March and unemployment rate ticking down from 3.9% to 3.8%:
Longest sustained period of sub-4% unemployment since 1960s
39 months in a row of hiring increases and the size of the labor force increased as more people look for employment
It’s a positive sign for non-inflationary growth aka Golden Path 👇
The big picture
Labor Market adding 303,000 jobs with minor revisions is a sign of economic prosperity
Financial Stress Index continues to fall further—which is bullish
China is still a risk on the horizon
Forecast
Since IWM 200 was defended and based on the flows on Friday — I added to my positions and bought the dip.
Fear & Greed Index makes a lower low as Greed falls to 58
AAI bulls drop to 47.3% and notice once the market got to 50% bullish, we pulled back shortly
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