It’s that time of the month when we get to look back and grade the cards’ performance for the month. April’s cards have been drawn and will be released Monday or Tuesday to paying subscribers.
Equity Indices: Three of Cups
We did have quite a bit of sell pressure during the first half of the month, but in the end, it was inconsequential and indices closed green again at record highs. We nailed the chop and possible celebration, but I’d like to be better. B+
We’re moving from a 7→3, a sign of retracement, and it’s actually the same card $DXY drew last month in a very similar setup.
This says we could give back some of last month’s gains, but it won’t be super bearish. There will still be things to celebrate.
This is also a low-energy card, so I don’t think there will be a lot of momentum in whichever direction we trend this month.
This may be a month to take some time off and celebrate life outside of the markets.
Crypto: The Sun
We set new ATH’s for several coins and then instantly faded below the monthly open in what looked like a bearish reversal. However, this dip was bought and the crypto rally resumed until the end of the month. I’d call this a win. Solid A.
The sun burns away the dangers of the night, but it often comes at a price. It can lead to a false sense of comfort and a bit of ego. This often presents itself as an initial rally that feels euphoric and unstoppable, only to burn out as we get too close to the sun.
This card usually finishes flat or just above it, which would indicate an early-month rally that is completely sold off. This means, don’t chase, be smart and ready to buy the next dip.
Metals: Hierophant
Gold saw big rallies with some initial sell pressure that proved fruitless. However, silver spent most of the month churning after a positive start. We did return to a positive structure, as anticipated, and going long was the play. A+
This is a return to a positive structure. We may chop around quite a bit, but it should be in a mostly positive direction. Worst case, we close the month where we started.
We shouldn’t see any big rallies or dips, but if we do they will likely be snuffed and brought back to the mean. This sounds a lot like an accumulation period. If you buy longs here, stay away from short-dated calls and give yourself time. HODL is the key here.
Bonds: Ace of Wands
This Ace did play the two and we retraced most of February’s rally. There were some tricky moments to trade, with both bull and bear traps set during March. Holding on for dear life was the best play. A for effort.
We’ve gone from 9→4→Ace, with the 4 and Ace being of the Wands suit. Aces can serve as two’s, but typically they help facilitate a new start. As a 2, we’d see reversal back lower, but as a new start and royal card, we could see continuation higher to the top of this year’s range.
Sadly, this card is historically negative, and impulsive, which means retracement lower is more likely than not, and the moves to get there will be tricky to trade. Look for higher/lower highs and lows to guide you for directional momentum, and then just hold on for dear life.
Oil: The Fool
This one was pretty simple. We anticipated a new start in the upward direction, and we got it. We’re still waiting on that short to play out, so maybe it will happen during April, as anticipated. A here also.
Since Oil is an inflationary asset, it can often sync with crypto. Since crypto shows us a possible rally that gets snuffed, and The Fool always brings the same, we may see a similar month for both asset classes.
The Fool begins a new adventure unaware of the dangers that lurk below. It always brings a rally that is sold off the following session. We usually finish flat or just under it.
So I’m selling rallies in Oil this month, and hoping we get a decent dip buy after that.
China: Queen of Wands
We got a bear trap into mid-month and then returned back to the yearly highs where we chopped around for most of the month. I was wrong on the bull trap, but higher and fade did play out. B+ here.
She’s the queen of traps, and her sessions usually finish flat or just under it, which means we’re in for a wild ride here. Wands are impulsive, so we’re looking for a trend to emerge and then holding on for dear life.
I do think that if we see a trap, it will be a bull trap, so maybe we run a little higher and then fade with the rest of the assets showing a similar setup.
So trend, into mean reversion, then trend again.
DXY: Judgment
Dip and then rally to bring us back to the mean and near the monthly open. Buying dips and selling rallies was the play. Early month fade into EOM spike played out perfectly. Solid A.
This card tends to bring chop more often than not, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the dollar stuck in a range for March.
I think the best way to play this is to buy dips and sell rallies. It could be a case of an early month fade into an EoM spike (matching bonds, crypto, etc). I don’t expect a weak dollar though.
Semiconductors: Empress
We expected weakness and we got it, offering a decent month buy in case April’s forecast looks positive. This was quite simple. A+
The Empress tends to ground us for a while to put us back in touch with our natural roots. During our stay, we exercise patience, knowing that her blessings of fertility will grant us a very powerful setup for the next month.
Maybe this is the perfect dip buy for the rest of the year, or maybe it’s a bear flag to set up the perfect short.
Only time will tell. However, expect some weakness this month without a lot of activity. Look to the stocks that haven’t moved as much, perhaps they will offer a setup or two.
We had a great month overall due to a solid monthly forecast backed by fantastic weekly guidance. Here’s to another successful month and 2nd Quarter. Cheers!
Thank you, very well done!
Thanks Tarot trader. Can’t wait for the April reading