Hmm. Beyond optimistic. First, the early vote/ballot request has just destroyed traditional Democrat "firewalls" in NC, NV, PA, and AZ. In some ways, these elections are already locked up. The only question is that of margin. In NV for example, in 2020 Ds had an early vote advantage of 40,000 to win by 33,000 in an election rife with fra…
Hmm. Beyond optimistic. First, the early vote/ballot request has just destroyed traditional Democrat "firewalls" in NC, NV, PA, and AZ. In some ways, these elections are already locked up. The only question is that of margin. In NV for example, in 2020 Ds had an early vote advantage of 40,000 to win by 33,000 in an election rife with fraud. Now? They are basically tied, plus or minus 1400. Once the Trump "underpoll" factors in, and the advantage Trump has in pulling Ds (over Harris's inability to pull any Rs at all except Liz Cheney), Trump will win NV by about 40-60,000 votes. (When John Ralston has give up in NV, you know it's over) Pretty sure Rs took Clark Co early vote yesterday. In GA, the black vote has completely tanked. "Souls to the Polls" was a disaster. You are looking at about a 5-point drop from 2020 in black vote, BUT about a 5-point increase in the white vote. Trump will win GA by 4.5 to 5. NC is not close at all. Despite the claims the hurricane would hit the western party, they are turning out en masse. NC is looking to be Trump +4, again especially given the huge gap in increased white vote/decreased black vote. AZ has been long gone for Harris. Rs have a fluctuating 25,000-35,000 early vote lead but again in AZ many Ds will vote Trump, and very few Rs will be voting Harris. FL is going to come in as I predicted, Trump +10. And there were actually people saying FL and TX would be close. The most interesting is PA, where early on Ds were saying that a "firewall" of 200,000 net early vote advantage would do it. That was quickly moved to 400,000, then 600,000. Yesterday pollster Rich Baris put the number at 800,000. Hard to do when Rs keep gaining in every single new data drop. Trump is on target to carry PA by 150,000 votes even after shenanigans or the "Margin of Fraud." VA is now turning competitive. Harris had to move more $ there. Right now it's about a 5- point race, but as in PA, every single new vote drop has Rs slightly gaining. If this is within 2 on election day, Trump will narrowlly eke this one out too. Both MI and WI are polling Trump +1, MI with the last three state pollsters. (Baris too, as with Trafalgar). WI is about the same, most pollsters having this Trump +1. WI is much more likely to turn out a rural red wave than MI, so it's not unlikely Trump wins the state by 1.5. Significantly, Harris withdrew all advertising from Milwaukee after early ballot requests from the red rurals came in extremely high.
This election today is Trump 312 EVs and a 1 point pop vote victory. But it easily can do a Jimmy Carter and spiral into a 340 EV victory and 1.5 popular vote, because even NY and CA are showing 5-10 point rightward movement in voter registrations. There is not one chance in a million Harris wins this.
Hmm. Beyond optimistic. First, the early vote/ballot request has just destroyed traditional Democrat "firewalls" in NC, NV, PA, and AZ. In some ways, these elections are already locked up. The only question is that of margin. In NV for example, in 2020 Ds had an early vote advantage of 40,000 to win by 33,000 in an election rife with fraud. Now? They are basically tied, plus or minus 1400. Once the Trump "underpoll" factors in, and the advantage Trump has in pulling Ds (over Harris's inability to pull any Rs at all except Liz Cheney), Trump will win NV by about 40-60,000 votes. (When John Ralston has give up in NV, you know it's over) Pretty sure Rs took Clark Co early vote yesterday. In GA, the black vote has completely tanked. "Souls to the Polls" was a disaster. You are looking at about a 5-point drop from 2020 in black vote, BUT about a 5-point increase in the white vote. Trump will win GA by 4.5 to 5. NC is not close at all. Despite the claims the hurricane would hit the western party, they are turning out en masse. NC is looking to be Trump +4, again especially given the huge gap in increased white vote/decreased black vote. AZ has been long gone for Harris. Rs have a fluctuating 25,000-35,000 early vote lead but again in AZ many Ds will vote Trump, and very few Rs will be voting Harris. FL is going to come in as I predicted, Trump +10. And there were actually people saying FL and TX would be close. The most interesting is PA, where early on Ds were saying that a "firewall" of 200,000 net early vote advantage would do it. That was quickly moved to 400,000, then 600,000. Yesterday pollster Rich Baris put the number at 800,000. Hard to do when Rs keep gaining in every single new data drop. Trump is on target to carry PA by 150,000 votes even after shenanigans or the "Margin of Fraud." VA is now turning competitive. Harris had to move more $ there. Right now it's about a 5- point race, but as in PA, every single new vote drop has Rs slightly gaining. If this is within 2 on election day, Trump will narrowlly eke this one out too. Both MI and WI are polling Trump +1, MI with the last three state pollsters. (Baris too, as with Trafalgar). WI is about the same, most pollsters having this Trump +1. WI is much more likely to turn out a rural red wave than MI, so it's not unlikely Trump wins the state by 1.5. Significantly, Harris withdrew all advertising from Milwaukee after early ballot requests from the red rurals came in extremely high.
This election today is Trump 312 EVs and a 1 point pop vote victory. But it easily can do a Jimmy Carter and spiral into a 340 EV victory and 1.5 popular vote, because even NY and CA are showing 5-10 point rightward movement in voter registrations. There is not one chance in a million Harris wins this.