TNR Nats Prospect Rankings Explanation (#16-30)
The second half of our Preseason Top 30 rankings explanations,
This is the second half of our deep dive into the top 30 prospects. can read the full list here and the first half here.
Cole Henry, RHP, age 24 in 2024
Why he’s #16: Henry is the rare pitching prospect that the Nats have drafted in the entire Rizzo era who already had good command as an amateur, and had been successful at a major program (LSU), albeit with injury concerns at the time. He blazed through the Nats’ system all the way to AAA Rochester in 2022 before undergoing surgery for the same kind of thoracic outlet syndrome as Stephen Strasburg late that summer.
Case for a higher ranking: He does not have as much wear and tear on his arm as prior TOS recipients, which hypothetically means he could rebound from it better than them.
Case for a lower ranking: Not many players undergo TOS surgery and go on to have quality major league seasons.
Ceiling: Your 2025 Nationals seventh-inning setup man.
80th percentile ranking: An up-and-down reliever for a while until he runs out of options and then gets designated for assignment.
Good 2024 outcome(s): He proves he is healthy and makes his major league debut.
Bad 2024 outcome(s): He is ineffective in relief in Double-A Harrisburg again after struggling there in 2023.
Jacob Young, OF, age 24 in 2024
Why he’s #17: Jacob Young impressed last season, going from an afterthought in the system to a potential starting option in center field to start the season in 2024. He plays quality defense in center, runs the bases well, and impacts the ball decently. He does not project as a big league regular currently, but he would make an excellent platoon outfielder as the fourth member of an outfield.
Case for a higher ranking: Young was on pace for 4.94 fWAR if he played in 162 games last season, thanks largely to stellar defense and a 100% success rate on the base paths.
Case for a lower ranking: Young is not the tools-iest player on this list, particularly when it comes to power - he’s averaged a home run for every 110 PA since entering college in 2019.
Ceiling: 2019 Victor Robles with fewer home runs and fewer TOOTBLANs.
80th percentile ranking: A standard two-win player whose value largely comes from his defense and base running.
Good 2024 outcome(s): Hits well and secures his role with the team for the next six seasons, whether that is as a full-time or part-time starter.
Bad 2024 outcome(s): He struggles to make quality contact and spends most of the season in Rochester.
Jarlin Susana, RHP, age 20 in 2024
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