“Prepping without understanding the environment is like navigating without a GPS.” — Bear Grylls
The Straight Juice Prepper's series continues, focusing on an intelligence-driven approach to understanding the operating environment.
This article builds on Part 1, which provides an introduction and broad overview to the topic of prepping, and Part 2, which explores the mindset necessary to begin the prepping journey.
BLUF: An intelligence-based approach to understanding the operational environment can prove as a useful and critical tool for the would-be prepper, saving much time and effort in the preparation process.
Introduction: Navigating the Unknown
Imagine venturing into a dense jungle, blindfolded. Every rustle, every shadow, becomes a potential threat. Now, imagine the same trek with a map, compass, and a deep understanding of the ecosystem. Suddenly, you're empowered, able to navigate with confidence and anticipate challenges. This analogy perfectly encapsulates the importance of understanding the "battlefield" for preppers, not in the literal sense of war, but in the broader context of preparing for unforeseen emergencies and disruptions.
The Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (JIPOE), a powerful tool used by military professionals, offers a surprisingly applicable framework for preppers to adopt in their planning phase.
“An intelligent prepper adapts, learns, and thrives.” — James Wesley Rawles
The JIPOE, at its core, is a systematic process for analyzing and understanding the operational environment. It goes beyond simply identifying potential threats; it delves into the physical, political, military, economic, social, information, and infrastructure (PMESII) factors that shape the situation. This holistic approach mirrors the prepper's need to assess their community, resources, potential risks, and available support systems. By adopting a JIPOE-inspired mindset, preppers can move beyond a reactive "just-in-case" approach and develop a proactive, informed plan that anticipates the complexities of any crisis.
The next paragraphs will explore the key elements of the JIPOE and demonstrate how they translate into actionable steps for preppers, empowering them to navigate the unknown with greater confidence and preparedness.
The JIPOE:
The JIPOE process isn't just about creating a formal document; it's a mindset shift. It encourages preppers to pause, step back, and map their unique "battlefield": their local environment, its vulnerabilities, and its potential for disruption. While the formal steps of JIPOE can be adapted, the core principle remains: understanding your context is crucial to effective preparation.
Step 1: Define the Operational Environment (OE): This isn't just about geography. It's about understanding your community's infrastructure, resources, and potential support networks. Are you in a rural area reliant on local wells, or a city dependent on centralized utilities? What are the natural hazards common in your region? This analysis informs your priorities: stocking water purification tablets in a rural setting, for example, becomes more relevant.
Step 2: Describe the Impact of the OE: Consider how various disruptions could affect your environment. A power outage in your city might necessitate a different plan than a blizzard in your rural home. Think about cascading effects: a storm disrupting power could also impact water supply. This helps you identify critical items to stockpile and plan alternative solutions.
Step 3: Evaluate Adversaries and Other Actors: This might seem extreme for preppers, but consider potential threats beyond natural disasters. Civil unrest, economic instability, or even pandemics can impact your preparedness. Understanding these possibilities allows you to tailor your plan accordingly. Do you need self-defense training, or a communication plan for social unrest?
Step 4: Determine Courses of Action (COAs): This is where the rubber meets the road. Based on your analysis, develop different response plans for various scenarios. This doesn't have to be a complex document; even a mental framework can be invaluable. Consider evacuation routes, alternative communication methods, and resource prioritization depending on the situation.
Remember, the JIPOE process is iterative. As your understanding evolves, so should your plan. The key takeaway? Don't just react to potential threats; proactively understand your environment and its vulnerabilities. By adopting this mindset, you'll be better equipped to navigate any unexpected storm, be it literal or metaphorical.
Example: Imagine living in a hurricane-prone area. Applying JIPOE, you'd understand the potential impact (flooding, power outages) and identify critical needs (food, water, communication). This informs your plan: stocking emergency supplies, having a generator and alternative communication methods, and establishing evacuation routes.
By taking the time to map your own "battlefield," you transition from passive prepping to active preparedness, empowering yourself to face whatever challenges may arise.
A Rough Example – JIPOE in Context:
Understanding the Total Environment:
Assessing the Landscape: Begin by thoroughly understanding your local environment. Consider geographical features, climate, and available resources. Are you in an urban area, a rural community, or a wilderness? Knowing the lay of the land is crucial.
Resource Mapping: Identify critical resources such as water sources, food supplies, and shelter options. Understand their availability, reliability, and vulnerabilities. For instance, in an arid region, water storage and purification become top priorities.
Cultural and Social Context: Study the local population—how they interact, their resilience, and their potential impact during crises. Are there community networks or potential allies?
Local Prepper Context: Imagine a prepper residing in a rural New Mexico community. The high desert environment poses challenges such as water scarcity, extreme temperature fluctuations, and limited access to medical facilities. Knowing where food depots, warehouses, and agricultural centers could help in a prolonged situation. Understanding how to collect, purify, and store water is critical.
Assessing Environmental Impact:
Terrain and Weather: Just as military planners consider terrain, preppers must evaluate how the environment affects their mobility, concealment, and safety. Is your area prone to floods, wildfires, or extreme temperatures? Adapt your plans accordingly.
Natural Barriers and Chokepoints: Identify bottlenecks or areas that could hinder movement. These could be mountain passes, rivers, or dense forests. Preppers can use these natural features to their advantage or plan alternative routes.
Population Density: High population density means more competition for resources and potential security risks. Low population areas may lack immediate assistance but offer greater privacy.
Local Prepper Context: Our New Mexico prepper recognizes that the arid landscape affects travel routes, concealment options, and water availability. The high altitude can impact physical endurance. The sparse population means fewer resources but also less competition for survival essentials.
Understanding Potential Threats:
Adversaries Beyond Military: In prepping, adversaries aren’t always enemy combatants. They can be natural disasters, economic collapse, desperate neighbors, friends, or family members, or civil unrest. Analyze their capabilities and intentions. What are the likely triggers for these threats?
Human Behavior: Consider how people react under stress. Panic, desperation, or cooperation—all play a role. Understanding human behavior helps you anticipate challenges and plan accordingly.
Wildlife and Environmental Hazards: Don’t forget the non-human adversaries. Wildlife, insects, and poisonous plants can pose risks. Know what’s native to your area.
Local Prepper Context: Our prepper considers potential threats. Are there local gangs, wildlife, or desperate individuals? Understanding their behavior patterns, tactics, and motivations informs defensive strategies. For instance, securing supplies and fortifying shelter become priorities. Building up stockpiles for those in need, if able, could be crucial to not turning away family or friends.
Anticipating Courses of Action (COAs):
Scenario Planning: Preppers often envision various scenarios: power outages, supply chain disruptions, or social breakdowns. Each scenario demands different responses. For example, during an economic collapse, bartering skills become valuable.
Risk Assessment: Evaluate the likelihood and impact of different COAs. Prioritize based on urgency and severity. Should you focus on short-term survival or long-term sustainability?
Adaptability: Prepping isn’t static. As the environment changes, so must your plans. Regularly reassess and adjust your strategies.
Local Prepper Context: Our prepper envisions scenarios: a prolonged drought leading to resource scarcity, looting during civil unrest, or encounters with desperate travelers. Each COA demands specific responses. Stockpiling water, establishing community networks, fortifying a “bug-in” location, establishing friendships (alliances), having power backup capabilities, and practicing situational awareness become critical.
Bugging In vs. Bugging Out:
When disaster strikes, the age-old question for preppers arises: bug in or bug out? The answer, however, isn't a one-size-fits-all solution. It requires careful consideration of your Area of Operations (AO) and a deep understanding of your environment through a JIPOE lens.
JIPOE and the Urban Jungle: In densely populated areas, bug out often becomes the default strategy, given sufficient time to make an exit with access to personal transportation, however, if their is insufficient time or one does not have access to a vehicle, it may be prudent to wait out the initial chaos. Applying JIPOE, you'd analyze vulnerabilities like limited water access, dependence on infrastructure, and potential for civil unrest. This informs your plan: prioritizing water storage, stockpiling non-perishable food, mapping potential routes from work to home, and having a communication plan for potential disruptions. Understanding your neighbors and their preparedness becomes crucial, as resources might be shared or competed for. Fortifying your home and establishing escape routes within the city becomes paramount. Remember, getting back home if you're at work or the store could be challenging.
Suburban Sprawl and its Nuances: Suburban environments present a mix of both worlds. JIPOE analysis reveals the reliance on utilities, potential for isolation due to limited transportation options, and the possibility of both natural disasters and social unrest. Bugging in might be feasible if you have a well and generator, but bugging out could be viable with a prepared vehicle and established evacuation routes. Understanding your community's preparedness becomes crucial, as collaboration can be a significant advantage. Consider the historic crime rate and potential for resource scarcity in your AO.
Rural Resilience and its Challenges:
For rural dwellers, JIPOE highlights the reliance on self-sufficiency, potential for isolation, and exposure to natural hazards. Bugging in often becomes the natural choice, with a focus on stockpiling resources, having self-defense measures, and developing alternative energy sources. However, understanding the availability of resources beyond your property is crucial. Analyze potential escape routes, as bugging out might be necessary for certain emergencies. Remember, the distance to essential services and support networks necessitates careful planning for medical needs and communication challenges. Community becomes key, in terms of knowing your neighbors, developing lines of communication, and understanding their mindset.
Beyond the Binary:
The true strength of JIPOE lies in its flexibility. It allows you to consider both bugging in and bugging out, analyzing the pros and cons based on your specific situation. Don't see it as a binary choice; instead, view it as a spectrum. Depending on the scenario, a combination of both strategies might be the most effective response. Remember, JIPOE is a continuous process. As your understanding of your AO evolves, so should your plan. By consistently applying this framework and adapting your approach, you can navigate any crisis with confidence, regardless of your environment.
Prepping for Every Season:
Prepping isn't just about stockpiling supplies; it's about understanding your environment and adapting your plans accordingly. Weather, a force as powerful as it is unpredictable, demands our respect and careful consideration. Failing to account for seasonal shifts can render even the best-laid plans ineffective. Let's delve into the importance of understanding weather considerations, transforming your prepping journey from reactive to proactive.
“Preparedness is not about fear; it’s about informed readiness.” — Cody Lundin
Summer Dreams and Winter Realities: Imagine the idyllic scenario: you start prepping in the warm embrace of summer, diligently collecting rainwater, tending a flourishing garden, and enjoying the bounty of fresh produce. But winter, the silent giant, approaches. Suddenly, your rainwater collection system freezes, your garden slumbers beneath a blanket of snow, and keeping your animals alive becomes a daunting task. This is why understanding your biome's unique weather patterns is crucial.
Desert Sun and Northern Chill: Location matters. The desert's scorching sun might make solar power a dream come true, but it also necessitates larger water storage tanks. Remember, while above-ground tanks are acceptable in warmer climates, northern winters demand burying or insulating them to prevent freezing. Similarly, an open shed and chicken run might be perfect in a balmy climate, but your feathered friends in a colder region would require the comfort of an insulated coop to survive the harsh winter.
Bugging Out in All Seasons: For those considering "bugging out," weather becomes an even more critical factor. Imagine fleeing a disaster in the dead of winter without proper gear – the consequences could be dire. Understanding the potential weather conditions you might encounter during your escape route is essential. Pack accordingly, ensuring you have clothing and equipment suitable for each season you might face. Remember, a summer bug-out kit won't suffice in a blizzard.
Beyond the Basics: Weather considerations extend far beyond temperature extremes. Understanding precipitation patterns will inform your water storage needs. Analyze wind speeds to ensure your structures can withstand potential storms. Research historical weather events in your area to anticipate potential risks like floods or droughts. This knowledge empowers you to create a more robust and adaptable plan.
Remember: Prepping is a journey, not a destination. As you gather experience and knowledge, your understanding of your environment will evolve. Regularly review your plans, incorporating the lessons learned from each season. By embracing the power of weather awareness, you'll transform your preps from mere stockpiles into a resilient shield against the ever-changing forces of nature.
Sharpening Your Prepping Edge with JIPOE:
Imagine facing a crisis, but instead of scrambling blindly, you have a clear plan, tailored to your unique environment and capabilities. That's the power of JIPOE, applied not just to battlefields, but to your personal prepping journey. Let's delve deeper, using real-life scenarios to illustrate how JIPOE refines your preps from guesswork to informed action.
JIPOE in Action: Your Local Haven: Consider the Physical aspect of JIPOE. Does your local post office or library have a designated bomb shelter? How far is it from your home? How would you access it after hours if needed? This intel, crucial for bugging in, guides your plan. Perhaps include a map and alternative access points in your grab-and-go bag.
The Grid and the Great Escape: Traffic is a major infrastructure factor. Analyze your commute from the perspective of a crisis. Would gridlock render escape impossible? Is your gas tank often near empty? If so, consider alternative routes or prioritize bugging in preparations, or consider a half-tank as being your new empty, and storing extra fuel within the vehicle. Remember, JIPOE is dynamic; adapt your plan based on real-time situations.
Apartment Living and the Power Paradox: Living in an apartment with generator restrictions throws a curveball. JIPOE's Social aspect reminds you to check building regulations. With limited electricity access, focus on alternative heat sources like well-insulated sleeping bags and camp stoves (ensuring proper ventilation, of course).
Bugging Out Bootcamp: Haven't camped before, but believe bugging out is your best bet? JIPOE's Information aspect urges you to research essential gear and practice setting it up. Consider attending camping workshops or borrowing equipment for trial runs. Remember, testing your skills beforehand saves time, money, and potentially lives during an actual crisis.
Testing Your Mettle: Drills, Not Disasters: JIPOE encourages continuous improvement. Conduct drills that simulate potential challenges: a day without power, limited water access, or a weekend camping trip in diverse weather conditions. These mini-tests expose weaknesses in your plan and hone your skills, making your JIPOE-based approach even more effective.
Remember, prepping is a marathon, not a sprint. Start small and manageable, gradually expanding your skills and knowledge. JIPOE isn't about stockpiling everything; it's about intelligent planning based on your environment and capabilities. By embracing this thoughtful approach, you transform prepping from a daunting task into an empowering journey towards resilience.
Conclusion:
We've embarked on a journey through the world of prepping, exploring its complexities and uncovering the power of the JIPOE framework. But remember, prepping isn't just about stockpiling supplies; it's about building resilience, both physically and mentally.
JIPOE empowers us to become informed citizens, not passive observers. By understanding our environment (physical, social, economic, etc.), we can tailor our plans to specific threats and vulnerabilities. Whether it's analyzing escape routes, testing alternative energy sources, or honing survival skills, JIPOE guides us towards actionable steps that build confidence and preparedness.
But remember, prepping thrives on a positive mindset. Fear and paranoia are counterproductive. Instead, cultivate mental fortitude and resilience. Embrace the challenges, learn from drills and mistakes, and find strength in community support.
Here are some key takeaways:
JIPOE is your compass: Use it to navigate the complexities of your environment and create a personalized prepping plan.
Start small, scale up: Don't overwhelm yourself. Build skills and knowledge gradually, testing your plan through drills and simulations.
Embrace the learning process: Prepping is a continuous journey. Be open to new information, adapt your plans as needed, and never stop learning.
Community is crucial: Share knowledge, resources, and support with others. Remember, we're all in this together.
Mindset matters: Cultivate a positive attitude, build mental resilience, and find strength in the face of challenges.
Ultimately, prepping isn't about fearing the unknown; it's about taking control and empowering yourself. By embracing the JIPOE framework, developing a positive mindset, and building a community of support, you can transform preparedness from a burden into an empowering journey towards a more resilient future. Remember, the most valuable asset you possess isn't your stockpile, but your adaptability, knowledge, and unwavering spirit. Go forth, prepare with purpose, and face the future with confidence.
Related Posts:
Post 77: Prepping - Beginner's Guide: How to Prepare for Disaster
Post 78: Prepping - Mindset
REFERENCES & FURTHER READING:
https://www.tactical.com/complete-beginners-guide-to-prepping/
https://urbansurvivalsite.com/prepper-tips-i-wish-id-heard-before-i-started-prepping/
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41060-023-00393-w
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-021-05190-x
https://www.trueprepper.com/survival-pdfs-downloads/
https://thesurvivalmom.com/prepper-library/
https://theprepared.com/prepping-basics/reviews/best-prepper-survival-books/
https://irp.fas.org/doddir/dod/jp2-01-3.pdf
https://www.thelightningpress.com/joint-intelligence-preparation-operational-environment-jipoe/
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26487107
https://preppermindset.com/
https://www.tactical.com/
https://roguepreparedness.com/survival-mindset-101/
https://www.fema.gov/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
https://www.redcross.org/
I prefer the concept of "bugging-in" versus "bugging-out".....typically tis advisable to stay in familiar territory if possible - in my opinion rural locations may be preferable. We have a "Getaway" place, but we have been there for several years now and if push comes to shove and it can be done safely, we will "bug-in" at our Getaway place which is basically already prepped and ready to go - it will be our home one day regardless, but it also is sort of an "insurance policy" - just as having a generator is.
This is a helpful article - thanks.
BK