Keep pushing, everybody. The season isn’t too far off. We’re almost to August, which means we’re less than a month from that deliciously tasty Notre Dame-Navy game. We’ve almost made it to the promised land.
In the spirit of August and preview season, I’ve decided to lay out some of my bulls and bears for the 2023 college football season. Think of this exercise as part science and part gut feeling. I leaned pretty heavily on Bill Connelly’s SP+ Rankings for this exercise but also attempted to use some background knowledge from my favorite podcasts, articles and just some general thinking from watching so much last season.
Bulls
Rice
Shoutout to the King of Houston, aka Cameron Morgan, for the inclusion of his Rice Owls. This is a weird one to start with, but I think there’s a very realistic possibility that Rice makes a bowl game this season. Let me explain.
I think our well-traveled son J.T. Daniels will cook in the Conference USA. It wouldn’t shock me if he racked up 30+ TDs this season. With the Owls’ schedule, I think Rice can hit the five-win mark and then use their big brain APR score to be the first five-win team to get a bowl invite.
Iowa
Look, the jokes about Brian Ferentz and his 25 PPG contract target write themselves. I’m not here to dispute this. But once you look past this, I think Iowa is going to be really good, even if their offense only slightly improves.
The Hawkeyes hang their hat on defense and special teams and that won’t change in 2023. Iowa is projected 27th in the SP+ rankings and gets to ride off the promise of Michigan transfer QB Cade McNamara. Iowa only scored about 17 PPG last season, so even if they only improve that by 10 more points per outing, they’ll be in the hunt.
They have an extremely fortunate schedule, as they dodge both Michigan and OSU in the regular season. I like Ferentz and the Hawkeyes to book a trip to Indianapolis in December.
UTSA
Meep meep, motherfuckers. I love UTSA again in 2023. If we’ve learned anything, it’s that In Frank Harris We Trust. I love the Roadrunners to destroy much of the Amercian again this year, despite losing their standout WR Zakhari Franklin to Ole Miss via the transfer portal.
Calling my shot now: Be on the lookout for that game in Neyland Stadium against Tennessee on September 22. I’m not saying, I’m just saying.
Oregon State
I’m buying the DJ Uiagelelei revival story. Jonathan Smith has shown he can transform an offense and a QB, and I think we’ll see that on full display in Corvallis this season.
The Beavers are projected 31st in SP+ rankings to start the year. I like them to keep the good vibes going and hit the eight or nine-win mark this season.
Lousiville
Mama called and Jeff Brohm finally answered. After much flirtation, the prodigal son returns to lead the Cardinals to greatness.
Aside from the homecoming, let’s make one thing clear: I’m banking on Lousiville because of their schedule. They come in at 36th in SP+ and their schedule screams 8 or 9 wins off the jump. Throw in a bowl win and we’re talking double digits in Year 1 for Brohm. Can’t ask for much more than that.
I think the Cardinals will sling the ball around in the wonky ACC. I’m weirdly fond of the Jack Plummer + Brohm reunion, too. Hammer the Cards.
Texas A&M
Hey man, at some point if you stockpile enough talent you’re gonna start winning. That’s my line of thinking for Texas A&M this season.
I really hope Jimbo Fisher relinquishes the playcalling duties to Bobby Petrino. If he does, I think the Aggies are going to be a serious problem in the SEC West. Their roster is and has been stacked, they’ve just needed to put it together.
They’re ranked 17th in SP+ to start the season and will likely beat the hell out of Miami in Week 2. If Conner Weigman can provide good quarterback play, the Aggies are going to be a really tough out this fall.
Texas and OU
I’m cheating a bit here but I kind of like the idea of a Texas-OU B12 title game as they both parade themselves into the SEC next year. I think Texas is built to be really good, and OU just has an insanely fortunate schedule.
I think Quinn Ewers will build off that promising start to 2022 and I lowkey think they can steal that game in Tuscaloosa in Week 2. Their offense should score for fun this year. The big definer will be whether Sark can finally win some close games. We shall see.
As I eluded to about OU, this is more of a schedule thing than anything else. They play a pretty easy non-conference schedule, avoid KState, and get TCU at home. I think OU could simply stumble into 10 or 11 wins here. No joke.
Toledo
This might finally be the year that a Jason Candle-led team puts it all together and wins the MAC Title. I’m very high on the Rockets in 2023.
I really like the prospect of Dequan Finn building off a 2200+-yard and 23-TD season in 2022. They do have a decently tough non-conference schedule, but I’m riding the rockets to get me to Detroit in December.
Troy
If you like hard-nosed defense and love to see someone open a can of whoop ass on someone, you’re going to love Troy. Troy is not here to mess around, and they sure as shit ain’t here to make friends.
Last year they had a Top 10 level defense and this year they sit 54th in SP+ rankings – which is extremely high given their pedigree. Much like my UTSA-Tennessee reference earlier, the Trojans play KState in Manhattan in September. I’m not saying, I’m just saying.
Bears
UNC
I’m coming out swinging with my Bears.
Do I think Drake Maye absolutely rules? Yes.
Is Mack Brown hilarious, and also a really good coach? Yes.
Do I think Gene Chizik will fix the defense? Hell no.
UNC comes in ranked 28th in SP+ but my call here is basically banking on the fact that the same mental toughness issues and no pulse on defense from 2022 will continue this year.
Drake Maye is going to crush it this year – and if they prove me wrong and win a bunch of games, he could win the Heisman. But I’m sorta forcing UNC to prove to me that they can put together just a half-ass defense. Not buying it until I see it.
Kent State
You wanna get nasty? Let’s get nasty. I think Kent State is going to be the worst team in D1 football this year, as evidenced by the 133 out of 133 SP+ ranking.
It’s not hard to figure out. They lost their coach, Sean Lewis, and a ton of their players to Colorado and other places via the transfer portal. They also refuse to run from the grind with yet another ridiculous non-conference schedule.
I’m no doctor, but I prescribe lots of alcohol and plenty of time watching EPL Soccer for Kent State fans this fall.
Arkansas State
In a similar vein, I think Arkansas State is going to be betting fodder this year. You can probably make a pretty penny by just betting against them all year.
Despite being led by proven winner and culture builder Butch Jones, I think the Red Wolves are going to be dreadful. They sit 114th in SP+ and are staring down the barrel of a decently difficult schedule. I think they might be fortunate to crack four wins in 2023.
Cincinnati
I’m not a huge Scott Satterfield guy, and that might be clouding my judgment a bit, but I’m just out on Cincy this year. Morally, I can’t back a team that is being led by QB Emory Jones.
He’s been bad at Florida and Arizona State and I”m not sure why this should be any different this year. They’ve also done a poor job winning the NIL battle, and have seen some good guys leave via the portal. I think they’re in for a rude awakening in their first year of B12 football.
UAB
UAB head coach Trent Dilfer strikes me as this religious extremist type who is convinced he knows everything and that you don’t know shit unless you follow his lead. For this reason, I think the CFB Gods will humble him and UAB this fall.
Connelly has them ranked 98 in SP+ and I really think this might be a tear-it-down-to-the-studs level of rebuild they’re facing.
West Virginia
If you’re following the First Coach Fired power rankings, Neal Brown is probably sitting at the top spot. He might get fired by mid-October.
They come in at 50th in SP+, which isn’t horrible, but I think they’re going to finish near the bottom of the Big 12. They’ve struggled to nail down a true offensive identity with Brown and that will likely continue. Plus, they start the season with early tests against Penn State (really good) and Pitt (really tough). I don’t love the Mountaineers’ chances at all.
TCU
Look man, TCU had a helluva year last year. It was storybook in so many ways. But that type of run is usually once in a lifetime, and I think the mean will catch up to the Hypnotoads this season.
Max Duggan will be difficult to replace, not to mention all the other firepower on the outside. Last year, the Frogs went 6-1 in one-score games and had some pretty miraculous finishes. I just don’t see that repeating once again.
I think they’ll finish closer to 7-5 than with double digits wins.
Purdue
I really like Ryan Walters and think he could be a pretty good hire for Purdue. I’m just not sure we see it in 2023.
Purdue comes in ranked 49 in SP+ and I’m just not buying Year 1 success. Plus, and this might just be a me thing, but I always get very weary when we see a defensive coach come in and take over for an offensive guy. Defensive coaches coach offense like defenses.
The Boilermakers will look vastly different without Brohm and Jack Plummer and I think they’d be fortunate to hit 6 wins in 2023.