🇺🇦 I picked the worst time in this whole saga to stop daily updates. Ukrainian forces are continuing to make unexpected, rapid advances in the north-east of the country, retaking more than a third of the occupied Kharkiv region in three days.
🇺🇦 The lightning offensive has pushed Russia back 70km in a week
🇺🇦 Izyum has been liberated
🇺🇦 The Russian front in the north east is collapsing as I type this
🇺🇦 There is ongoing flow of informations confirming with videos and pictures that Ukraine forces are rushing through all defense up north of Kupyansk.
🇺🇦 Update: Ukrainian forces appear to have taken the key city of Kupyansk overnight. Last week it was 60km behind the frontline.
🇺🇦 In the past 10 days, UA has liberated 2,000 square km of territory. Edit: 2,500km. Edit: 2,500km+
🇺🇦 Russia is fleeing the Luhansk region. This has been confirmed by multiple sources
🇺🇦 In the past 48 hours, Ukrainian soldiers have liberated dozens of settlements
🇺🇦 Reports of 7000 Russian prisoners and lots of equipment during 3 days.
🇺🇦 Germany to assist Ukraine with speeding up its path towards EU membership
🇺🇦 Latvian President Levits: ‘Ukraine will be strong EU member in relatively short time’
🇺🇦 The Russian army is collapsing in several locations.
🇺🇦 The settlements of Vasylenkove and Artemivka (Kharkiv region) are in full control of Ukrainian forces.
🇺🇦 I can’t type fast enough, the updates are coming out too fast
🇺🇦 BBC is reporting that the counter offensive on Kherson was designed to send Russian troops to the south so that Ukraine could quickly take Kharkiv. A huge disinformation campaign accompanied the Kherson counter offensive
🇺🇦 The Ukraine Air Force is using highways as high mobility airports. I’ve never heard of this.
🇺🇦 The Russian puppet government is fleeing from Vovchansk (city in Chuhuiv Raion of Kharkiv) to Belgorod
🇺🇦 Chinese social media seems to be turning on Russia, making fun of their invasion
🇺🇦 Russia’s Ministry of Defense has verified their retreats “In order to achieve goals of the special military operation…a decision was made to regroup the Russian troops”
🇺🇦 Partisans in Mariupol have raised the Ukrainian flag over several key buildings.
🇺🇦 Unconfirmed reports that Denis Pushilin resigned as head of Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), as a resignation letter was leaked
🇺🇦 Water and electricity were restored to Enerhodar, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
🇺🇦 Germany is preparing to face winter without Russian energy.
🇺🇦 The Investigation Bureau detains collaborator serving as ‘chief of police’ in Balakliia, Kharkiv Oblast.
🇺🇦 The United Nations released a report detailing poor Russian treatment of Ukrainian POWs and detained civilians.
🇺🇦 The Pentagon is working on 'detailed analysis' how to support Ukraine's military long term.
🇺🇦 Russia has lost more than 50,000 troops
🇺🇦 At the beginning of the war, the west was hesitant to supply Ukraine as it was worried about RU reaction. Today, the west brags about the weapons they give Ukraine. The change was based on a struggling Kremlin that has failed to follow through with its threats.. “Over time, the administration has recognized that they can provide larger, more capable, longer-distance, heavier weapons to the Ukrainians and the Russians have not reacted,” former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor told The Hill.
🇺🇦 2.5 million Ukrainians have been forcible deported to Russia
🇺🇦 The anti-corruption prosecutor’s office charged an MP from Zelensky’s party with bribery. Prior to the war, Ukraine had a notable corruption problem. 2022 Ukraine doesn’t seem to be playing around. Opinion: this seems to stem from renewed patriotism and motivation to join western blocs
🇺🇦 Ukraine set up a new coordination headquarters for de-occupied territories called the Ministry for the Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories
ℹ️ Other operations:
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces have reportedly passed the Oskil river and are attacking Russian points along the river.
🇺🇦 UA is once again fighting for the Donetsk airport
🇺🇦 Lyman was “taken without a fight.” Lyman is in the Donetsk Oblast. (Low confidence, seeking more information)
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces may have advanced north of Hrushivka towards a Russian logistics hub in Velykyi Burluk, northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.
ℹ️ Russia:
🇺🇦 The Russian Ministry of Defense says everything is going according to plan
🇺🇦 The Russian Ministry of Defense says Russia has had no losses since Feb 24
🇺🇦 The Kremlin is rushing resources to Kharkiv Oblast in response to effective Ukrainian operations.
🇺🇦 Russian military reporters across the Russian news sphere are begging for the Ministry of Defense for details
ℹ️ Crimea:
🇺🇦 More Russians flee Crimea out of fear of being drafted
🇺🇦 More Russian soldiers are fleeing Crimea
🇺🇦 TVs hacked yet again in occupied Crimea. President Zelensky 's address to Crimeans being played on all channels.
ℹ️ Kherson
🇺🇦Ukrainian forces are continuing counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine, including interdicting Russian GLOCS, degrading Russian morale.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces are continuing to interdict Russian logistics in southern Ukraine
🇺🇦 The Kherson offensive is taking a large toll on UA soldiers. “We lost five people for every one they did.” (I don’t know if this number is accurate)
🇺🇦 Wounded soldiers who fought in Kherson describe lopsided fights in which they did not have enough ammunition to dislodge Russian forces.
🇺🇦 “They used everything on us.” Wounded soldiers recounted five straight hours of cluster bombs, phosphorous munitions and mortars.
🇺🇦 Ukraine wanted to engage on multiple fronts simultaneously, but the west convinced them to focus on Kherson first.
🇺🇦 A large Russian arsenal was captured by Ukrainian fighters in Vysokopillya of Kherson Oblast. Ukrainians took over ATGMs, RPGs, electronic devices, ammunition, firearms and more
🇺🇦 Lots of RU desertions in Kherson
🇺🇦 According to preliminary information from the partisans of the Southern 'Ukrainian Voluntary Army' Resistance Movement, in Kherson the building of the "Territorial Selection Center No. 178" on Parovozna Street, known in Kherson as the "Military Commissary", was blown up.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian military officials stated that the Kherson counter offensive is continuing to degrade morale among Russian servicemen.
🇺🇦 The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are intensifying air patrols over Babenkivka Druha (22km northwest of the Kherson Oblast-Crimea western border) due to the increasing number of Russian deserters
🇺🇦 Russian milbloggers significantly decreased their coverage and discussions of the Kherson counteroffensive in favor of reporting on the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast.
ℹ️ Zaporizhzhia subplot:
🇺🇦 There was so much information on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Powerplant but now we’re on to Kharkiv. I’m just acknowledging that this happened, for those who want to go and read up on it
ℹ️ Putin subplot:
🇺🇦 Putin is facing a second wave of discontent as officials slam the war and demand his resignation
🇺🇦 Multiple pundits are suggesting we may soon witness a military coup in Russia. Note: These are pundits, not source
🇺🇦 U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said there is “no interest” in Biden meeting Putin at the G20 summit.
ℹ️ Nordstream:
🇺🇦 Russia is going big on a campaign to punish the west by shutting off the Nordstream pipeline.
🇺🇦 Russian Gazprom published a video "Winter will be big...ice age begins in Europe. "
🇺🇦 Russia will shut down the Nordstream 1 pipeline until sanctions are lifted.
ℹ️ Taiwan subplot:
🇺🇦 Taiwan is purchasing HIMARS to protect themselves from China
ℹ️ Language subplot:
🇺🇦 ”Izyum” is the Ukrainian historic spelling. Izium is a more historic Russian spelling. Both are technically correct
ℹ️ Dedication
🇺🇦 This post is dedicated to my past correspondents, Eva and Kim. I thought about our communications during this writing
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🤗😁🏆💯🙏🏼🕊🎉Fantastic News I’m crying with joy thank you,thank you, thank you to God and everyone like you Walter for sharing this great news! Count on continued prayers for peace and reconciliation and no more horrific nonsense like this invasion to ever happen again. Glory to Ukraine and peace forever!